Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Pick ATS 11/20/21

by | Nov 17, 2021 | cfb

Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-7 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS)

NCAA Week 12

When: Saturday, Nov. 20 at 3:30 pm ET

Where: Camp Randall Stadium - Madison, WI

Point Spread: NEB +9.5/WISC -9.5 (BetNow - Now offering Predictem readers a SPECIAL 100% bonus on your first deposit of $50 to $1000! The absolute BEST bonus you’ll find from a legit online sports betting website!)

Over/Under Total: 42

There was a traffic jam on the road to Indianapolis as we entered November, but things have cleared up quite a bit in the Big Ten with just two weeks to play. Michigan and Ohio State will largely settle things in the East with Wisconsin in control of the West, and they will play in their seventh conference championship game should they win out. Nebraska will not play in a bowl game for the fifth straight season, but Scott Frost remains at the helm, and the Huskers have a chance to play spoiler against a Badger team that has owned this rivalry. Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, Wisconsin has won eight of nine meetings, averaging 40.6 points per game in those contests.

Trend Watch

Nebraska has been an excellent bounce-back group, winning seven of the last ten against the spread in the week following a straight-up loss. However, the Huskers have not been good against quality competition, with just one ATS win in their last five against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin is riding a four-game ATS win streak overall and is 5-0 ATS in their previous five against the Big Ten. UW is also 4-1 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record. The UNDER has hit in eight of the last ten road games for Nebraska and 10-of-15 on the road. The OVER has paid in seven of the nine games in this series since Nebraska, including four of the five games played in Madison.

Changes In Lincoln

At 15-27 in his time at Nebraska, the seat under Scott Frost had gotten very hot after a 26-17 loss at Ohio State. The Huskers have lost a number of close contests this season, including four straight heading into their Week 11 bye, and something had to give. Frost will stay, but four offensive assistant coaches were shown the door as the Huskers look to turn a new page. It is curious that the offensive coaches were let go considering Nebraska sits 16th in total yards per game and is top-40 in both passing and rushing, but a lack of clutch plays overshadowed the raw numbers. Adrian Martinez is the best dual-threat QB in the conference with 13 touchdown passes and 12 rushing scores, and his 502 rushing yards lead all Big Ten quarterbacks. Rahmir Johnson leads the running backs with 495 yards and four touchdowns, but he has a long day ahead with Wisconsin leading the nation in run defense. Samori Toure has emerged as a big-time playmaker and averages 22.4 yards per reception while leading the teams with 716 receiving yards. The Husker defense has been respectable, ranking 37th in rush defense and 27th in points allowed but hasn’t been able to produce a consistent pass rush. Garrett Nelson leads the team with four sacks and 12 tackles for loss.

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New Sheriff in Town

Wisconsin’s running back room has seen a lot of movement this season, but that has led to Braelon Allen breaking out as a 17-year old true freshman. Allen is averaging 7.1 yards per carry and has hit the century mark in six straight games, which is a school record for a freshman. Graham Mertz was one of the worst statistical quarterbacks through the first half of the season, but he has settled down to throw for six touchdowns over his last three games. A further sign that this passing game is coming around is that Danny Davis, Kendric Pryor, Chimere Dike, and Jake Ferguson all have multi-catch games over the last three contests. An offense that was once stuck in the mud is now clicking on multiple fronts. The defense remains the best in the nation in yards allowed per game and has created 16 turnovers in just the last four games. LB Leo Chenal leads the Big Ten in tackles for loss despite missing the first two games of the season and is the leading tackler on this defense. Wisconsin leads the NCAA in third-down defense, allowing just a 24.6% conversion rate. Getting behind this Wisconsin team is not advisable, but this defense has also not allowed a single point on opening drives this season.

Can Nebraska Reverse the Curse?

Things haven’t gone well for Nebraska since moving to the Big Ten, but games against Wisconsin have been especially painful. These teams have played for The Freedom Trophy since the 2014 season, and that piece of hardware has never resided in Lincoln. The Huskers are off a bye and could circle the wagons with the recent coaching shake-up, but they could also be distracted and already looking to the offseason. With Wisconsin clearly playing at their best, this seems like a longshot for Nebraska to suddenly change the fate of this series. Adrian Martinez will likely be the key to cover for Nebraska. He has accounted for 750 combined yards in two games against Wisconsin, but too many long drives have come up empty, and both games were relatively easy wins for UW. Nebraska has to win the turnover battle, with Martinez specifically being better than his counterpart Mertz. It is doubtful that the Husker running backs will do much damage on Saturday, so even more, fall on Martinez’ shoulders and legs. Everything Wisconsin does is predicated on their run offense. If they are rolling on the ground, Nebraska doesn’t stand much chance in keeping this close. The line has moved from an opening 11-point spread to the current 9.5-points, so bettors are plugged into Nebraska’s ability to play close games against good competition. Ultimately, I think Nebraska is heading to Madison at a time when Wisconsin has things squared away on both sides of the ball, and that will prove too much for the Huskers to overcome. A close first half is in store, but Wisconsin extends a solid lead through the second half en route to a 28-16 win. Ted Walker’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Wisconsin. Bet your Nebraska vs. Wisconsin pick and ALL your week 12 college football predictions for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100 in order to qualify for the special bonus). Click here to sign up now!

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