Nevada Wolf Pack (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date/Time: Thursday, November 5, 10:30pm
Where: Bulldog Stadium – Fresno, CA
TV: ESPN 2
by Bob, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NEV -4.5 / FSU +4.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
Thursday night on ESPN2, the Nevada Wolf Pack will travel to Fresno to take on the Bulldogs of Fresno State in a prime time Mountain West Conference showdown. Both teams are having disappointing seasons, especially Fresno State who enters this game at 2-6 and needs to win out in 2015 to even have a shot at making a bowl game. Since 2005, this series has been pretty even. Both teams have covered the spread five times and the actual head to head wins and losses are also 5-5. Last season, Fresno State was a 40-20 winner over Nevada, but after losing quarterback, Derek Carr to the NFL, Fresno isnt the same team they were a year ago.
The line opens with Nevada as a 4.5 point road favorite over Fresno State, and the total points have not yet been set. As of Monday afternoon, 63% of the action was on Nevada to get the road cover. In 2015, both teams overall records and records against the spread match. Nevada is 4-4 in both categories while Fresno State is 2-6. Neither team is having an overly impressive season, so that means that this game could potentially go either directionIn my opinion of course.
Fresno State is never a big player on the national scene, but over the last decade or so, they are good for 9-10 wins a season at least. This year has been tough. Coming in a 2-6, the Bulldogs now must win pretty much every remaining game to have a shot to play in a bowl game this year. From a statistical standpoint, it is easy to see why Fresno State has had so much trouble. The Bulldogs are not even in the nations top 100 in many major categories. So far in 2015, they are ranked 111th in points scored with just 21 per game. On the other side of the ball, the defense is even worse by allowing 41 points per game against them, which is the 121st worst in the FBS. Not only do they suffer in scoring from both sides, but the offense is not even close to being respectable. They rank 113th in passing yards and 111th in rushing yards. This team is just bad. Flat out BAD. Sometimes you can look at a team from the Mountain West and attest their bad record to a hard schedule, well, not Fresno State. Their only game against a ranked opponent came in week two against Ole Miss, a game they lost 73-21. This Thursday, I really dont know what Fresno State can do to slow down Nevada. Not that Nevada is a great team, the Bulldogs just are not very competitive right now. The key is just play out of their minds. If Fresno States crowd shows up and gives them at least some advantage, then maybe, just maybe, we will have a close game.
The Nevada Wolf Pack should not come into this game too over confident. They, themselves, have not had a great 2015. At 4-4, the Wolf Pack is about as average as they come. Yeah, their schedule is a little tougher than Fresno States has been, but they still have losses to Wyoming and UNLV, teams that Nevada usually has success against. Offensively, the Bulldogs are not that much better than Fresno State, however, on the defensive side, they arent too bad. Allowing 27 points per game is just about average for the FBS and this is one area that I think they have the huge advantage over the Bulldogs. This weeks game against Fresno State is simple, just do not beat yourselves. If Nevada turns the ball over or allows some crazy special teams plays, I could see this game being very tricky for them. However, if they play their game, do not press and do not take any ill advised chances, I like Nevada big.
So after reading this breakdown one would think I was all over Nevada in this one, well, I am. I do think Nevada should come in and win this game by 20 or more points. The Wolf Pack has the head to head advantage in the following areas: Points per game, yards per game, points allowed per game, time of possession, and redzone scoring percentage. Not only that, but over 60% of the action is on Nevada. Therefore, TAKE FRESNO STATE. This has trap all over it and I am not falling for it. I think Fresno State jumps on Nevada early and holds on to cover the 4.5 they have been spotted.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread:PICK THE FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS +4.5
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