Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Clemson Tigers Total & Point Spread Pick

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) vs. Clemson Tigers (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, November 4th 12:00 PM
Where: Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC
TV: ABC

Point Spread: ND -3 / CLEM +3
Over/Under Total: 45

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish head south to take on the Clemson Tigers in a Saturday afternoon showdown at Memorial Stadium. The Tigers hold a 4-3 advantage in seven all-time meetings between the teams, though the Irish have won the last two regular season matchups, including a 35-14 beatdown in South Bend a season ago.

DECLAWED

Clemson limps into this weekends’ game with a 4-4 record, and after back-to-back losses have solidified themselves as the most disappointing team in the country since beginning the year in the top ten of nearly every ranking system. The Tigers were 80-8 against the ACC from 2013-2022 but have since gone just 2-4 and are at serious risk of posting a losing in-conference and overall record for the first time since 1998. And it’s not like they can blame their recent slide on tougher competition, as six of their last seven losses were in games they were favored to win.

CADE FADE

The Tigers could usually be counted on for some offensive firepower. But, they are struggling to put up consistent numbers and rank outside the top 40 nationally in all four major offensive categories (passing, rushing, total, and scoring). They haven’t scored more than twenty points in a game over their last three matchups and now get to take on a Notre Dame defense that ranks 10th in points allowed per game and 3rd against the pass. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has just 13 touchdown passes through eight games and has particularly struggled lately, with three interceptions in their last two matchups (both losses), including a zero-touchdown effort last week against NC State. Clemson has never fared well when Klubnik has had turnover issues, having gone 1-5 over the last six games that he has thrown an interception.

DISAPPEARING ACT

All of Clemson”s offensive woes can certainly not be attributed to Klubnik, though, as the wide receivers have a grand total of zero touchdowns in the teams’ four losses this season. Beaux Collins and Tyler Brown each have at least 30 receptions and lead the team in yards, but Collins has just one touchdown in seven games against FBS opponents, and Tyler Brown’s only two touchdowns were versus lowly FAU. Troy Stellato is the next receiver up, and should see even more attention from Klubnik, with Brown questionable this week after getting hurt against the Wolfpack and the team having recently lost Antonio Williams for the year due to a toe injury. The most reliable target of late in the passing game has been tight end Jake Briningstool, who has 13 receptions for 219 yards and two scores over his last two games and should continue to see attention from Klubnik through the air with the Tigers’ running game facing issues of their own.

SHIP-WRECKED

The health of Clemson running back Will Shipley is one of the biggest variables heading into Saturday’s game after he was injured a week ago and currently remains in concussion protocol. If he is unable to play, Phil Mafah will take over the lead back role and is more than capable to do so, already leading the team in rushing touchdowns with six and having averaged over five yards per carry in 7 of 8 games this season. With the wide receivers struggling to get in the endzone when it matters most, the Tigers will need whoever is in the backfield to help turn around a struggling offense that has been at its worst when it matters most, ranking 93rd in fourth-quarter scoring and an especially terrible 128th in red zone scoring percentage, which is a near 180-degree turn from just a season ago when they first 7th in the same category.

NEW YEARS’ PLANS

Notre Dame”s BCS playoff hopes were over once they lost to both Ohio State and Louisville over a three-game span, but by running the table over their last three games, they can hit double-digit wins and essentially lock up a spot playing on New Year’s Day. After Clemson on Saturday, the Irish close with a home matchup against Wake Forest followed by a road trip to Stanford, both games in which they should be heavily favored to win. The Tigers are the only remaining speed bump on Notre Dame’s path to redeeming their season, and in the way is a Clemson defense that ranks 6th nationally in yards allowed per game that the Irish now have to face without their most reliable receiving option in the passing game.

NO MITCH HITCH

Tight end Mitchell Evans was lost for the season due to an injury suffered against Pittsburgh, and with that, the Irish lost their leader in not only receiving yards but also receptions by a whopping ten more than the next player behind him. Behind him on the depth, chart are three players (Holden Staes, Cooper Flanagan, and David Sherwood) who have scored a combined six touchdowns this season, but the team will clearly need one of their wide receivers to put a complete game together through the air to further take the pressure off quarterback Sam Hartman.

SAM SLOWDOWN

After a fast start that saw him throw seventeen touchdowns and zero interceptions in the teams’ first four games, Sam Hartman has seen his stats level out once the talent of competition increased. He has thrown five interceptions over his last three games and shown a more frequent propensity for happy feet in the pocket and rushed/poor decision-making. The loss of his security blanket, Evans, is a tough one, especially considering he was the only player on the team with more than 20 receptions on the season. Receivers Chris Tyree, Rico Flores, and Jayden Thomas will all see increased attention through the air, though all three have yet to clear more than receptions in a game all season.

RUNNING TO SUCCESS

The best strategy for Notre Dame offensively continues to be getting the ball to running back battering ram Audric Estime as much as possible. The Irish are now 9-0 when Estime gets at least 15 carries in a game, as his bruising style wears down opposing defenses more and more as the game progresses. It’s no wonder that they rank 7th in the country in fourth quarter scoring, which is one clear advantage that Notre Dame has over Clemson, as brought up previously, the Tigers rank just 98th in the same category as they have continued to run into issues closing out games.

THE FINAL DECISION

Clemson is a dangerous underdog this week, having underachieved all season and now desperately needing a signature win to offset their disappointing 2023 campaign. They now get the Irish this week at home in Death Valley, where they have gone 43-2 over their last 45 games. The offensive injuries are piling up, though, with top guard Walker Parks and wide receiver Antonio Williams already lost for the season, and now star running back Will Shipley and wideout Tyler Brown both questionable to play on Saturday. It’s not a good recipe for success, considering quarterback Cade Klubnik hasn’t necessarily been on point of late, and this week matches up against a Notre Dame defense that has played at a high level all season (minus the Louisville letdown).

The Irish have shown a repeated ability to get into the win column when lighting up the scoreboard, having gone 62-1 straight up in their last 63 regular season games when scoring over 21 points. They have also seen similar type results when struggling offensively, though, having lost seven straight games when scoring less than 21 points. I believe this week’s game will be highlighted by the defenses on both teams, and I expect a lower-scoring matchup. Clemson may need the game more, but I am leaning toward the Irish to continue their recent success away from home, having gone 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 games as a road favorite. The earlier start takes away a bit of the Death Valley advantage that seems to magnify when under the lights in primetime, and I expect Notre Dame to buck their recent trend and get a win and cover in a low-scoring matchup.

Mike’s Picks to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -3 and Under 45