Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins First Half Bet
Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) vs. Maryland Terrapins (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 19, 3:30 p.m.
Where: Maryland Stadium, College Park, Md.
TV: ABC
Point Spread: OHST -27.5/MD +27.5 (Bovada – Deposit $100 get $50 FREE! Deposit $200 and get $100 FREE! Deposit $500 get $250 FREE from one of the oldest and most trusted sportsbooks on the web!)
Total: O/U 64.5
Outlook
Luckily for Maryland, the Terrapins already have bowl eligibility figured out, as they don’t have to get any more wins to ensure that they’ll make the postseason. That’s fortunate because Maryland is not playing very well at the moment and comes in as losers of two straight that were never really competitive. Losing to Penn State is understandable, but losing to Penn State 30-0 really isn’t. Losing to Wisconsin at all really isn’t a good sign and speaks to just how much Maryland’s annual dropoff is affecting this team right now. Maryland has now failed to cover in five straight contests, and it’s looking more like a minor bowl game will be Maryland’s destination.
For Ohio State, the key is to avoid getting caught in a look-ahead spot. The Buckeyes know what’s at stake: they have to beat Maryland, Michigan, and the Big Ten West winner to make it to the College Football Playoff, as they likely won’t have the schedule to match a one-loss Tennessee if they’re also carrying a defeat on the ledger. The Buckeyes shouldn’t have any real problems with the Terrapins, whom they’ve won all seven meetings with and have squashed by at least 20 points in every meeting except 2018. But Ohio State has proven to be prone to languid performances at times, as they barely escaped a poor Northwestern squad two weeks ago. They played brilliantly against Indiana, but that isn’t exactly saying much. Maryland’s an average Big Ten team, and Ohio State will need to be on their game to cover this number.
How the Public is Betting the Ohio State/Maryland Game
Maryland is getting the tickets from the public, but the Buckeyes have gotten enough money to offset that a fair amount. The spread is unchanged despite 58% of tickets on the Terrapins, and the total is up a half-point to 64.5
Injury Concerns
Ohio State:
Running back Miyan Williams (lower body), cornerback Lloyd McFarquhar (undisclosed), wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hamstring), and running back TreVeyon Henderson (foot) are questionable. Running back Evan Pryor (knee) and linebacker Mitchell Melton (knee) are out.
Maryland:
Running back Challen Faamatau (undisclosed) is out.
When Ohio State Has the Ball
With Maryland’s defense middling against both the run and the pass, look for Ohio State to just take whatever is working and try to put the game away early. C.J. Stroud did exactly that against Indiana a week ago, as the Buckeyes scored on three of their first four drives and didn’t take longer than 3:40 to get down the field in any of those situations. In fact, none of Ohio State’s eight scoring drives took more than four minutes, as the Buckeyes’ only two possessions that went beyond that served only to end the half or game with as little risk of injury as possible.
Maryland is a little more dangerous when it does have the football, so you probably won’t to count on Ohio State needing scores in the second half. The Buckeyes don’t have a lot of incentive to try to grind anything out against the Terrapins, and they aren’t going to be trying to land the cover with the Michigan game looming. Plus, the Terrapins are a better team than Indiana and should be able to at least keep the game within shouting distance against the Buckeyes’ reserves. This looks like it could be a game where Ohio State lets its foot off the gas in the final 15 minutes.
When Maryland Has the Ball
If this turns into another showing like what Taulia Tagovailoa had against Penn State, this is not going to end well for anyone on the Maryland sidelines. Tagovailoa couldn’t do much of anything on offense last time out, as he threw for a mere 74 yards on 22 passes and ended up with negative 45 yards on the ground. Penn State didn’t even score in the game’s final 23 minutes, and it meant nothing because Maryland only managed 134 yards for the entire game.
The Terrapins usually haven’t been that incompetent, but they’ve also played a rather soft schedule up to this point. Purdue doesn’t have a good defense, Northwestern doesn’t do anything rather well, and Wisconsin slammed the door shut on Maryland and held the Terrapins under 200 yards for the game. The only good defense the Terrapins have had any success against was Michigan, and that was over a month ago.
Maryland’s best bet would likely be to let Roman Hemby try to get the job done against the Ohio State run defense, which is the weaker part of the Buckeyes’ stop unit. But Ohio State scores so quickly that it often gets teams out of their game plan, which Maryland can’t afford here.
More Picks: Illinois at Michigan betting analysis and free pick 11/19/22
Betting Trends
Points have never been at a premium in this game. The over has cashed all seven times the Terrapins and Buckeyes have faced off, and that’s because Maryland has never held Ohio State under 49 points. With the Terrapins reeling and this being November, Maryland’s a stay-away for most sharps at this point. The Terps are 2-7 ATS in their past nine home games, and they’ve failed to cover in five straight. In November, it’s even worse: Maryland is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 November games.
If Ohio State does have a weakness at the betting window, it’s letting the horses stop too soon for those who back the Buckeyes on the spread. Ohio State has just one cover in its past five road games.
Weather Report
The good news is that there won’t be precipitation to worry about here. Winds will only blow at six miles per hour, and temperatures will sit at 44 degrees at kickoff, with no rain or snow in the forecast.
Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread
My main play on this will be Ohio State -14 in the first half. I think the Buckeyes will come out with the goal of getting the game over with as quickly as possible so they can shift their minds to Michigan, and Maryland isn’t capable of keeping that from happening.
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