Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick 11/30/19

by | Nov 26, 2019 | cfb

Oklahoma Sooners (10-1 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-3 SU, 8-2-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 30th, 2019 - 8:00 ET

Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK

TV: FOX

Point Spread: OU -12 / POKES +12 (Intertops - Deposit $25 and get a FREE $25 bet!)

Total: 69.5

Power Ratings: Oklahoma State +6

Takeaways From Week 13

The Sooners come into this match off a hard-fought 28-24 win over the TCU Horned Frogs when they curated hosting duties last Saturday in Norman. Closing as a 19-point favorite, the Sooners once again failed to cover and extended their ATS losing streak to four games.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are coming off a 20-13 win over the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown last Saturday. Closing as a seven-point favorite, the Pokes produced a push. Okie State has now covered or pushed in their previous four matches.

How the Public is Betting The Bedlam Game

Out of the gate, the public has taken a liking to the underdog in this contest; 55% of the consensus like the Pokes with the points in this match-up. The market has bounced all over the place from early money coming in on OU followed by late steam on the Pokes. As a result, the line is presently parked on the number that it opened at with the Sooners laying 12 to the hosts.

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The Historicals

The Sooners have dominated this series as they have won ten of the previous eleven Bedlam games. Last year, Oklahoma hosted their cross-state foes and narrowly escaped them in a 48-47 thriller that was settled on a failed two-point conversion. Oklahoma had closed as a 21.5-point favorite.

Betting Trends

The away team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven installments of this storied rivalry. Mirroring this trend, Oklahoma is also 6-1 ATS in their previous seven visits to Oklahoma State. For those that like to play the Over, such a wager has gone 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as these contests traditionally have been basketball games on turf.

Injury Concerns

Both teams have named injuries to key players heading into this rivalry game. For Oklahoma, they will be without Running Back Trey Sermon, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Defensive Back Tre Norwood will also be absent due to a season-ending injury identical to that of Sermon. For Oklahoma State, they will be without quarterback Spencer Sanders, who started ten games for Oklahoma State this year before sustaining a thumb injury that will not bring him back into the fold until bowl season. Moreover, the Pokes will be without their best-receiving option, Wide Receiver Tylan Wallace who will be out for the remainder of the campaign due to a torn ACL. Wallace compiled over 1,400 receiving yards in 2018 and was well on his way to breaking the 1,000-receiving yard threshold in 2019 until his untimely injury.

Why We Like Oklahoma To Cover

Some other sports betting sites would suggest that OU is overvalued here. However, I am of a dissenting opinion. The Bedlam Game is often characterized by the offense, and thus it would be uncharacteristic of me to suggest laying points in a shoot-out, especially when there are double digits on the table. Nevertheless, I will make an exception here. For weeks now, many have spoken in how Oklahoma has crept by its opposition. Whether it be a heroic comeback against Baylor to erase a 25-point deficit on the road or narrowly escaping either TCU or Iowa State, the Sooners have found ways to win, but it hasn’t impressed the viewership. This is a prime opportunity for Oklahoma to make a statement against a ranked opponent on its turf. Oklahoma State’s offense does not have the firepower to keep up with Oklahoma here. However, the Cowboy defense gives up a 116th-ranked 276.2 passing yards per game, and they also give up a friendly 26.4 points per match (58th in the FBS). If Oklahoma State has to rely on its defense to keep itself in the game, I do not like those prospects. Last week, the Pokes got away with this approach, but then again, they were up against an atypical West Virginia bunch. Jalen Hurts is a dangerous man, and he will tear apart Oklahoma State’s secondary. Given the potential lack of explosiveness on Oklahoma State in response, this game can get out of hand very quickly.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Oklahoma -12

I don’t think this game is going to have a lot of bedlam in it at all. It certainly won’t be like last year’s contest either. It’s going to be all Crimson and Cream from start to finish. The Sooners will dominate the Cowboys in all phases and take them wire-to-gate in a rout. Swallow the points with confidence.

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