Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Pick 10/12/19

by | Oct 9, 2019 | cfb

Oklahoma Sooners (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Texas Longhorns (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)

When: Saturday, October 12th, 2019 – 12:00 PM ET

Where: Cotton Bowl – Dallas, TX


Point Spread: OU -11 / TEX +11 (Intertops)

Total: 75

Power Ratings: Texas +5

Takeaways From Week 6

The No. 6 Sooners come in undefeated. OU was last in action against Kansas last Saturday when the Sooner Schooner hit the road to take on the Rock Chalk Jayhawks. Closing as a 32-point favorite, OU was unable to produce a cover when it defeated Kansas 45-20.

The No. 11 Longhorns come into this game on a three-game winning streak. Most recently, Texas was in action in Morgantown, West Virginia, last Saturday against good old WVU. The Longhorns would defeat the Mountaineers 42-31 to produce a narrow cover as a 10.5-point favorite. Texas’ only defeat this season came at the hands of the No. 5-ranked LSU Tigers who defeated the Horns 45-38 in Austin on September 7th.

How the Public is Betting the Red River Rivalry Game

As it stands, 59% of the consensus bets are on the Longhorns here with the points. Nevertheless, we have seen early action come in on the Sooners who opened as a 9.5-point favorite. Since the open, OU now finds itself spotting an additional 1.5 points to their arch-rivals. The reverse line movement is often a sign of “professional” money choosing the side that the public is against. This line may very well likely work itself back down to its opening figure should the public start to pour money in on Texas.

The Historicals

The last time these two teams met was in the Big 12 Championship last December. The Sooners would close as a 9.5-point favorite and march on to a 39-27 victory to end Texas’ six-game cover streak.

Betting Trends

The Sooners being 1-6 ATS in the previous seven matches along with the Underdog posting a 6-1 ATS record over these same seven matches will make Texas a popular choice in this market. For Over/Under players, the Under is 5-1 ATS in the previous six Red River Rivalries.

Injury Concerns

Heading into this epic rivalry showdown, the most notable injury comes from the Oklahoma camp as Running Back Kennedy Brooks is listed as questionable after sustaining a knee injury two weeks ago against Texas Tech. Should Brooks be unavailable, his battery mate Trey Sermon will continue to see an enhanced workload.

Why We Like Oklahoma To Cover

Oklahoma’s offense has picked up right where it has left off. Once again, the “Crimson and Cream” are owners of the most productive attack in America, averaging an incredible 643.8 yards per game while also averaging a FBS second-best 53.4 points per outing. Against a Texas defense that allows 441.8 yards of total defense per game (104th in the FBS), the Horns will offer little resistance in stopping the Crimson and Cream Machine. In particular, Texas is one of the worst teams in America against the pass, giving up a 126th-ranked 325 yards through the air per game. This is a very bad premise for the Burnt Orange to operate off of as OU presently bodes (no surprise here) the present Heisman frontrunner in Quarterback Jalen Hurts who has already thrown for 1,521 passing yards this season. Hurts will torch this Texas secondary. However, it is hard to infer that Longhorns Quarterback Sam Ehlinger will be able to lead Texas’ offense to score enough to stay in the game. After all, Oklahoma’s defense has stepped its game up, allowing just 19 points per game, which places them 26th in the FBS in that department. A notable motif of Oklahoma football for several preceding seasons is their defense being a slice of Swiss Cheese and their offense having to bail them out. Unfortunately for Texas, the Sooners’ defense is doing a much better job and in turn, has allowed Oklahoma to put together more complete performances. Texas will simply be another notch under the OU bedpost.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Oklahoma -11

The Oklahoma offense is a juggernaut. The Sooners bode an offensive operation that places it in the top-five in both passing yards per game (355) and rushing yards per contest (288.8). This is a systematic and well-oiled machine that is anchored by a playmaker that has Champion credentials. The only way to stop Oklahoma is to mitigate their offensive and keep a lid the explosive plays. This means controlling Jalen Hurts and bottling up Cee Dee Lamb to get started. However, Texas does not have the defensive firepower to do either. As we mentioned, the Longhorn secondary is in prime position to get carved up, and the Horns are not exactly proficient in generating a pass rush as they only average two sacks per game in their first five games this season. The Red River Rivalry can shape up to be a career day for Hurts, and Oklahoma will potentially only need to make one or two defensive stops to cover this number. I suspect OU will go above and beyond.

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