Oklahoma Sooners (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Texas Longhorns (3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)
College Football Week 7
Date/Time: Saturday, October 14th, 2017 3:30 PM ET
Where: Cotton Bowl Stadium Dallas, TX
by KEITH, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: OU -7.5/Tex +7.5 (-105)
Over/Under Total: 62.5
Saturday, October 14th will feature a renewal of one college footballs longest-running and most-storied rivalries, the Red River Showdown. This one is a Big 12 conference collision played at a neutral site because these two teams harbor that much acrimony toward one another. The Oklahoma Sooners will square off with the Texas Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas at the annual Texas State Fair. A mid a sea of cotton candy and carnival rides, the contest will commence at 3:30 PM ET and will be broadcasted across the country on FOX. The most recent edition of The Red River Showdown was a slobberknocker in 2016. The Sooners would edge out the Longhorns in a 45-40 donnybrook while closing as a double-digit favorite. In 2015, the Sooners were upset by the Longhorns as a three-possession favorite. Overall, the Longhorns have successfully covered in the previous four editions of this feud. Both teams have won two of the last four meetings between both parties. This will be the first Red River Showdown for Head Coaches Lincoln Riley and Tom Herman.
Oklahoma comes in off a historic loss in what was classified as nothing short of cataclysmic. As we had mentioned in our analysis of Iowa State and Oklahoma last week, Oklahoma had only lost to the Cyclones on five occasions dating back to 1928. That number has now increased to six. As a 31-point favorite at the close of the market, the Sooners would be stunned by the visiting Iowa State Cyclones. The Sooners would hold a fourteen-point lead before ISU would resurge and orchestrate the upset bid when they knocked out the Sooners in Norman. The last time Iowa State defeated Oklahoma in Norman was in 1990. On Saturday, the Iowa State flag was placed at midfield to commemorate the upset by ISU. The loss has dashed Oklahomas College Football Playoff hopes and possibly their Big 12 Conference title retention, as well.
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The Longhorns enter off their second win in a row. Texas was put through a gauntlet last week as they were in a dogfight with a live pooch in Kansas State. Though Texas trailed by double digits, they would find a way to equalize with the Wabash Cannonballs and come up with the W in overtime. The Horns closed as a 6.5-point favorite but that was irrelevant to the Wildcats. Previous to their outing against KSU, Texas defeated Oklahomas predator on a Thursday night primetime contest by a score of 17-7 when the Horns hosted Iowa State. Without question, this result is having a direct influence on shaping this market.
In the early stages of this market, we have seen the number decrease by 2.5 points as result of heavy steam rolling in on Texas. At the current asking price, Oklahoma is priced with less juice at -105. Despite a lot of money and many tickets backing the Longhorns, the Sooners are a popular choice from a consensus perspective. However, Texas is the one being booked. In Over/Under markets, we have seen this market fall by two points indicating action on the Under. Given the number presented currently, another shootout is expected between both teams in this annual grudge match.
The fact remains, the Sooners owned the longest winning streak in the country before they were victimized by Iowa State. In doing so, Oklahoma was exceptionally economical against the spread until the market finally caught up to them. This was largely chalked up to ludicrous numbers they were spotting to perceived weaker opponents. Nevertheless, the result of Saturday has turned the college football world upside-down. The popular presumption is that since Texas beat Iowa State handily, they should also do so with this overrated OU team. However, we would urge takers not to take such a position. Oklahoma was flat out embarrassed. This was a team many portrayed as a threat to both Alabama and Clemson. Now, OU fell flat on its face. Since the stock is so low on the Sooners, this is a prime position to catch them at a reduced price as they look to take out the frustration on their oldest foe.
KEITHs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Oklahoma Sooners -7.5. Bet your pick for FREE by taking advantage of a generous 100% bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at MyBookie!