Oklahoma Sooners (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS)
College Football Week 12
Date and Time: Saturday November 15th, 2014. 3:30PM EST
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, T.X.
TV: ESPN
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: OU -17/TTU +17
Over/Under Total: TBA
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After starting the season with huge National Championship expectations, Oklahoma Sooners fans have been punched in the mouth with a dose of reality in recent weeks. The reality is that Oklahoma is not even the best in their own conference and perhaps far from it as they already have 3 losses in the Big 12 this year. Last week there was hope when Oklahoma jumped on Baylor 14-3 in the first quarter. However that hope was quickly erased as the Bears scored 45 unanswered points in a 48-14 rout to hand coach Bob Stoops one of his worse losses in his coaching career. This week the Sooners try to pick up the pieces as they go into Lubbock for a showdown with the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
As much as the sky may seem like its falling in Norman, things are much worse over in Lubbock where the Red Raiders have continued to be a doormat in the Big 12. Texas Tech has lost 6 of their last 7 games SU and has also now lost 10 of their last 11 games in the conference dating back to last seasons collapse at the end of the year. If things do not start getting better, coach Kliff Kingsburys tenure in Lubbock is going to be short lived. However, the opportunity has arrived this week for the Red Raiders to right the ship with a big victory over Oklahoma.
The Red Raiders are currently listed as 17 point underdogs at most betting shops but they have not been very profitable for bettors in recent memory. Texas Tech is just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games and just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games at home. Oklahoma has been a strong road warrior covering the mark in 6 of their last 7 games on the road despite the fact they have dropped 4 of their last 5 games ATS this season. The problem the Red Raiders have experience this season is the same problem that cursed the team during the latter part of 2013. Simply put, defense has been non-existent in Lubbock. The Red Raiders have given up 41.6 points per game this season as one of the worse defenses in college football. In fact, only 3 teams have given up more points on average this season.
Despite the turnover issues, quarterback Davis Webb has done a good job as the Red Raiders quarterback this season. The offense owns the 9th best passing attack in the country averaging 320 yards per game through the air. Webb has hit 62% of his passes for 2, 539 yards with 24 touchdowns and 13 picks. I mentioned that the interceptions have been concerning but nevertheless the Red Raiders have been able to move the football rather well this season. Its just that the defense has not been able to stop anyone to give this offense a chance to win games. This is the same Red Raiders defense that gave up 82 points to TCU two games ago then gave up 34 points to an anemic Texas offense last week. Offensively the Red Raiders have the talent to contend with teams around the Big 12 but defensively they are an FCS type talent which is the major reason they are 17 point dogs at home this Saturday.
Oklahoma will try to exploit that Texas Tech defense after stalling out on offense last week against Baylor. The Sooners have struggled with bouts of inconsistency on offense this season mainly at the quarterback position with Trevor Knight. Knight has struggled to hit just 58% of his passes for 14 touchdowns and 9 picks on the season. The key this week will be keeping Knight out of 3rd and long or obvious passing situations. The Sooners offense is best when they are running the football well and running back Samaje Perine could be in-line for a big game this Saturday against Texas Techs defense. Perine has 11 touchdowns on the ground this season and he will be one of the guys that needs to set the tone early for the Oklahoma offense on Saturday.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I expect a high scoring affair but one that may be closer than most expect. The Red Raiders defense is awful but I think the offense keeps them in striking distance throughout the game. Take Texas Tech +17
