Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Pick 11/7/20

by | Nov 3, 2020 | cfb

Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (4-2, 4-2), 11/7/20

Time: 4 pm ET Saturday, Nov. 7

Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium

TV: Fox

Point spread: OSU -12.5/K State +12.5 (Sportsbooks Accepting Bitcoin for Deposits)

Money line: Cowboys -670/Wildcats +400

Over/Under: 47

Oklahoma State and Kansas State are both coming off their first Big 12 losses of the season, heading into Saturday afternoon’s match-up in Manhattan. And a second loss will probably prove very costly to one’s chances of making the Big 12 championship game. But more importantly, the Cowboys are favored by almost two touchdowns on the road. Who do we like here for our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football betting odds opened the Cowboys at right around -10 over the Wildcats, with a total of 51. Early betting action then goosed OSU to -12.5 and dropped that total to 47.

Cowboys vs. Wildcats Betting Preview

Oklahoma State just suffered its first defeat of this season, falling at home to Texas last week 41-34 in overtime. The Cowboys led the Longhorns 7-0 early and 24-20 at the half. OSU then appeared to take control of the game when it went up 31-20 early in the third quarter, but it immediately gave up a 100-yard kick-off return for a score, and it was “game on” from there. In the end, the Cowboys forced OT with a field goal with five seconds left, but they gave up a Texas touchdown at the top of the overtime inning and came up empty on their offensive possession.

Oklahoma State lost that game outright as a 3.5-point favorite and the game played over its total of 59.5 in regulation.

The Cowboys out-gained the Longhorns 530-287 and won first downs 32-17. But they also lost the turnover battle 4-0, resulting in at least a -20 points differential.

OSU started 4-0 this season, with wins/covers over West Virginia, Kansas, and a pretty good Iowa State.

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Kansas State, meanwhile, just had a four-game winning streak snapped by a 37-10 loss at West Virginia last week. The Wildcats grabbed an early 3-0 lead on the Mountaineers, then gave up the next 24 points and trailed 24-10 at the half. KSU then came up totally empty in the second half and whiffed ATS as a five-point dog.

Also, that game played over a total of 45.5 when West Virginia kicked an otherwise meaningless field goal with 10 minutes to go.

On the day, the Wildcats got out-gained by WVU 485-225, out-rushed 184-41, lost the turnover battle 3-1, and lost time of possession by a 34:26 split.

In other words, K-State got its butt kicked.

Prior to that, though, the Wildcats won/covered four games in a row against Oklahoma, Texas Tech, TCU, and Kansas. And those last two victories came after losing starting quarterback Skylar Thompson for the season to a shoulder injury.

Big picture, at 4-1 in conference play, Kansas State is tied for the lead in the Big 12 with Iowa State, with 3-1 Oklahoma State a half-game back.

These teams have played two common opponents so far this season; the Cowboys beat West Virginia 27-13 and Kansas 47-7, while the Wildcats beat the Jayhawks 55-14 but lost to the Mountaineers 37-10.
Cowboys vs. Wildcats Recent History

Oklahoma State is 6-4 SU over the last ten meetings in this series, but Kansas State is 7-2 ATS over the last nine, pulling a couple of upsets, keeping other games close as an underdog. Last year, though, the Cowboys popped out to a 13-0 lead, pushed that to 23-3, won 26-13, and covered as four-point favorites.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Oklahoma State is 133-65 SU, 108-76-6 ATS in 15-plus seasons under Coach Gundy.
  • Oklahoma State is 9-4, both SU and ATS, with Spencer Sanders as the starter at QB.
  • Kansas State is 2-1 both SU and ATS since replacing injured starting QB Skylar Thompson with freshman Will Howard.
  • Kansas State is 12-7 SU, 13-6 ATS in a season-plus under Coach Klieman.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 3-2 in Cowboys games this season, which are averaging 47 total points against an average over/under of 56.
  • Overs are 4-2 in Wildcats games this season, which are averaging 57 points against an average O/U of 54.
  • These teams played seven overs in a row from 2011-17, with a bunch of high-scoring games. But the last two meetings played under totals of 62 and 60.

Free College Football Pick

We like what Coach Klieman is doing at K-State, but we don’t like his chances Saturday. Oklahoma State is just the better, more experienced team on both sides of the ball. Plus, playing on the road, even in these strange days, means the spread is a bit more amenable. We’ll give the points here with the Cowboys. Hey! Your bookie is over-charging you! Stop laying -110 on games! Start laying only -105 at BetAnySports! Anything less is a complete waste of your hard earned cash!