Oklahoma vs. West Virginia Friday College Pick
No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (10-1 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers (8-2 SU, 6-4-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 13
Date/Time: Friday November 23rd, 2018. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Milan Puskar Stadium Morgantown, W.V.
Point Spread:OKLA -1/WVU +1
Over/Under Total: TBA
The top two heavyweights in the Big 12 will square off this Friday when the 9th ranked West Virginia Mountaineers welcome the no. 6 Oklahoma Sooners into Morgantown. The Mountaineers’ playoffs dreams were erased last week in a mild upset 45-41 loss to Oklahoma State. The good news for West Virginia fans is, despite the loss, that this week’s showdown with Oklahoma will still carry Big 12 title implications. In fact, the winner will move onto Arlington for a Big 12 Championship appearance to likely face off against Texas. For Oklahoma, it’s not just about a chance to play for the Big 12 championship. While Oklahoma wants to win the conference, at 10-1 straight up, they are still very alive in the hunt to earn a College Football Playoffs bid if they can win out. Therefore, a lot will be on the line for both of these high profile teams when they meet at Milan Puskar Stadium this Friday.
Another shootout in Morgantown?
There have been a number of highly anticipated match-ups reigning from the Big 12 in recent weeks, and most have surrounded the highly dangerous offenses around the conference. This week’s showdown in Morgantown will be no different as two of the best offenses in the Big 12 collide in an important game from both sides. On one side of the field, you have the 9th best scoring offense in college football averaging a whopping 40 points per game in West Virginia led by quarterback Will Grier who has tossed 33 touchdowns on the season. On the other side of the field, you have the top-ranked scoring offense in college football in Oklahoma who are averaging nearly 50 points per game. The Sooners are led by Heisman Trophy contending quarterback Kyler Murray who has thrown 34 touchdowns this season and produced another 10 touchdowns on the ground. Needless to say, this game has all the makings of another offensive shootout which has been a recurring theme in Big 12 match-ups throughout the year.
Reverse line movement concerning for Oklahoma
Before I go down this rabbit hole, let me make one thing clear. I do not make betting picks based solely among line movement. However, I do think it is important to see the type of movement that is involved with each game before you dig deeper for the stories within each match-up. This week’s match-up opened with the Sooners favored 2.5-3 points on most books. It did not take long before that number was trimmed to just a single point in basically a “pick em” contest. Ironically, all of the early money is showing on the Sooners with over 70% of the early betting action, yet the line has gone against Oklahoma.
Now you will find a ton of theories about betting or fading reverse line movement. We are not here to debate that concept. However, I do believe the reverse line movement plays into my theory about this game well before this week began. The Mountaineers have had this game circled on their calendars since the start of the season. Throughout their success, this season, the build-up to this week’s Oklahoma game at home has been unprecedented. When I tell you this Friday’s game is the Mountaineers biggest game of the year, it would be a huge understatement in the way this time has anticipated a shot at Oklahoma. After all, to win the Big 12, the path usually goes through the Sooners.
We could go back and forth debating these teams all day. Each side is equipped with numerous weapons, speed, and big play ability. While I think the Sooners have the better offense, I could also make the same argument that the Mountaineers have the advantage on defense. Either way, this game is pretty evenly matched. Therefore, I am simply looking at the circumstances as I believe West Virginia has anticipated this game for so long that they are going to give their best effort. It may not be my usual breakdown of match-ups and schemes that I provide each week. However, I like West Virginia in this spot, at this time, following a loss, with an opportunity to go play for the Big 12 title. I like everything about the circumstances and situation.
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia betting trends
Despite both the Sooners and Mountaineers’ success this season, both teams have lost steam for bettors. Oklahoma is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Meanwhile, West Virginia had a solid start to the year, but they have also regressed going just 2-3-1 ATS in the last 6 games. The Mountaineers have hit the ‘over’ in 4 of their last 5 games while the Sooners have hit the ‘over’ total in 6 of their last 7 games. It is also important to mention that since West Virginia joined the Big 12 (2012), Oklahoma has won every meeting in each year since going 6-0 SU during that time frame.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: West Virginia +2