Oregon State Beavers (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS)
College Football Week 14
Date and Time: Friday November 29, 2013 7pm EST
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene OR
by Tim, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: OSU +21.5/OR -21.5
Over/Under Total: 67.5
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The Civil War is resurrected this weekend in Eugene, Oregon as the floundering
6-5 Oregon State Beavers trip the light fantastic against the 9-2 Oregon
Ducks losers of their last 2 out of 3. This is the 117th Civil
War clash and Oregon leads the series 60-46-10. Oregon has won the
last 5 straight, the last 7 out of 10, and–excluding the captioned Toilet
Bowl of 1983 (0-0 kiss your beaver/duck tie)Oregon is 29-9 since Bobby
Fischer said No ms de Torneos de Ajedrez (finished with chess) and bellbottoms
rocked the house; 1975. Lets look at the numbers, the Edge, and all relevant
parties colliding in Eugene for this bang em up brawl!!p>
The very first Oregon inhabitants were Paleo-Indians. With this game in mind, there exists an old Paleo-Indian proverb concerning the 2013 Oregon State football team; If you lose four straight including last weeks blowout by 42 to a Washington team playing their 2nd string QB, and you gave up 530 rushing yards and 692 total yards in the process, AND sit 84th in rushing defense, and you are about to face an Oregon team sitting 10th in rushing offense and 3rd in total offense, then there is only 2 choices for you (Oregon State); Peyote Pipe or Man Up! The Paleo-Indians sure knew their football! Quite frankly, Oregon State looked like they quit against Washington last week. The Beavers were down 62-6 at one point early in the 4th quarter but scored 3 times against the Husky scout team to make the scoreummm, respectable? As if 4 straight losses and a pistol whip from Washington is bad enough, Oregon State is 120th out of 123 teams in rushing offense. Oregon State relies SOLELY on their passing game reflecting the number 3 position of all 123 teams in passing offense. Oregon State also is 19th in time of possession which suggests the Beavers dip-n-dunk, bubble screen, shallow slant, using the pass as a hybrid running attack (the Beavers, while 3rd in Passing Offense in the Nation, are a paltry 68th in Yards Per Completion). Lets look at Oregon.
For Oregon, lets put the offense aside; the Ducks will score points! Terrance Mitchell leads the Duck secondary with 5 interceptions. The Ducks on defense have been a little bit of a disappointment in 2013 with so many returning starters in the secondary and experience at almost all defensive positions. Oregon still owns the number 26th position in the country Against the Pass but remain a measly 59th Against the Run. The Against the Run stat doesnt matter; Oregon State doesnt run the ball—EVER! Measured against other Pass-Happy teams in the Pac12, Oregon beat Washington State 62-38 and throttled Cal 55-16. In Oregons 2 losses, Stanford threw the ball just 13 times and Arizona only threw it 22 times (Arizonas KaDeem Carey rushed for over 200 yards against Oregon!). The problem obviously is: Oregon cannot stop the run, which shortens the game, and keeps the Duck offense on the sideline. But dont believe the hype! Oregonaccording to most seasoned statistical research firms, have not fallen to 13th in the Polls like the talking heads suggest. Oregon is still Top 5 with most sane forecasters who calculate the best teams in the country and stick with the numbers; not the growing impressions!
In Oregon States run of 4 straight defeats, the Beavers have thrown the ball a total of 189 times completing 118 passes or an average of 47 times in those 4 losses! There is very little doubt Oregon State is sold-out throwing the ball. In each of those 4 defeats, Oregon did not produce ANY running back going over 100 yards. The Ducks are susceptible to the runits their soft spot. The Ducks are also HUGELY talented in the secondary so this game will come down to, Will Oregon State Head Coach Mike Riley run the ball against Oregon giving his team a chance? ORWill Mike Riley stubbornly repeat the same mistakes in strategy, preparation, and production for the Beavers which, to date, has produced losses apparently growing like Chinese Takeout? Perhaps a prediction could come directly from Mike Riley. When asked after the most recent beat-down (69-27 to Washington) why it appeared the Beavers didnt look ready to play before the game, Riley stumbled this gem (perhaps stolen from Gandhi?) out, Maybe we got stunned and were just paralyzed? Okay, but stunned and paralyzed? Oregon State got hammered because they quit. Mike Riley has got to come up with a better answer than thator get angryor something non-pacifist-like? In any event, 24 points is a TON to give away in a rivalry game. This game seems more like a lovely parting gift for a team already content with the consolation prize!
Yes, Oregon does not defend the runit doesnt matter. Oregon State is a mummified version of competitors dressed in orange-ish-ee red Nike gear completely trippin on Lithium. Oregon is going to have their way with Oregon State and the Duckstwice beaten and woundedwill not get off the gas pedal like Washington did! BUTif Riley runs the ballNAH! Ducks in a wipeout!
TimsPick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting the Oregon Ducks -21.5.
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