Oregon vs. Georgia Spread & Total Pick

by | Aug 31, 2022 | cfb

Oregon Ducks (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

When: Saturday, September 3, 3:30 p.m.

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

TV: ABC

Point Spread: ORE +16.5/UGA -16.5 (Make the Dawgs a +3.5 underdog by inserting them into a massive 20 point CFB teaser at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Total: O/U 53.5

Outlook

After directing one of the best defenses of all time in Athens a year ago, Dan Lanning now gets to try to figure out how to attack it from the other sideline as the head man in Oregon. Making his task a little easier is the fact that nine members of last year’s Georgia defense are now in the NFL, which means Kirby Smart’s defense will be reloading as the Bulldogs try to defend their national title.

If Oregon is going to compete, the Ducks are going to have to show the form they displayed in beating Ohio State in Columbus as opposed to what they showed in taking two blowout defeats against Utah. Oregon started last year fairly strong but faded in the season’s final month, giving up an average of 38 points per game to close out the year. Doing anything close to that isn’t going to work against a Georgia team that’s still incredibly talented on both sides of the ball and looks very capable of defending the crown.

How the Public is Betting the Oregon/Georgia Game

The public thinks this line has gotten a bit out of control. Roughly 58 percent of tickets are on Oregon, and the line has ticked down from -17 to -16.5. The total has risen to 53.5 from 51.

Injury Concerns

Oregon:

Oregon reports no injuries.

Georgia:

Running back Kendall Milton (hamstring), defensive lineman Tramel Walthour (back), wide receiver Kearis Jackson (Achilles), and offensive lineman Earnest Greene III (leg) are questionable. Wide receiver De’Nylon Morrissette (knee) is probable. Running back Andrew Paul (knee) and wide receiver Arian Smith (ankle) are out.

When Oregon Has the Ball

Bo Nix makes his return to SEC land against his former school’s rival, as the ex-Auburn quarterback has now taken over the quarterback position at Oregon. That might not be the best thing for this situation, as Nix has never done well against Georgia. In three meetings with the Dawgs, Auburn was 0-3 in Nix’s time at the school, and the Tigers never managed to top 14 points.

The good news is that, if nothing else, Nix should have plenty of time to make decisions and direct the offense. Oregon returns five experienced starters on the offensive line, and if Byron Cardwell can make quality runs into the Bulldogs’ defense, the Ducks’ ground game should help them hang around for four quarters. But with experience severely lacking in the Oregon receiving corps, Nix is either going to have to get on the same page quick or take off and go if the Ducks want to have any shot to hang with the Bulldogs. Getting the ground game going would be a big step in the right direction, as would Nix limiting the number of interceptions he had at Auburn.

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When Georgia Has the Ball

Stetson Bennett answered all of the questions about his ability to perform last year, and now the question is whether he can pick up where he left off. Bennett saved his best for the game that mattered most last year, as he came up big in the fourth quarter against Alabama and lifted Georgia to a national title for the first time since the early 1980s.

With another year under his belt, Bennett should be more confident with the football, which should mean an improved attack for the Dawgs. Last year, Georgia’s passing game often slid into Brock Bowers, and whoever else could get open, but Dominick Blaylock and Ladd McKonkey are now well established and should present a difficult matchup for opposing defenses. As long as the running game doesn’t fall off without Zamir White, the Bulldogs should have a solid offense at their disposal.More Picks: Utah Utes vs. Florida Gators Analysis & Betting Predictions >>>

Betting Trends

When Oregon gets to a neutral site, the results really aren’t particularly effective. The Ducks are a mere 3-7 ATS in their past ten games played at a neutral site, and even though this game is in Georgia, it’s technically a neutral site the same way Jacksonville counts as a neutral site when Georgia goes there to play Florida.

Georgia’s dominated that series just like it has virtually every other neutral site game as of late, as the Bulldogs have covered in four of their past five games at a neutral site. That doesn’t mean Georgia has a ton of experience with Pac-12 opponents, as the Dawgs haven’t faced one since 2010, but it does show that Georgia knows what it’s doing when it’s playing against a fellow Power 5 squad outside of the SEC. Backing Kirby Smart and company has tended to be a wise move, as Georgia doesn’t give quite as many points outside of Athens.

Weather Report

Weather won’t play a factor inside the Falcons’ domed stadium.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

On the one hand, Georgia is still a talented and deep squad. On the other, this is a lot of points to cover, especially in this situation. Not only is this only the first game of the season for both teams, but Georgia’s going up against Dan Lanning, who knows more about their tendencies than anyone outside of the current Georgia coaching staff.

Lanning went up against the Bulldog offense every day in practice for the past three years, and he should have an idea of how to slow it down. I think that leads to an under cashing, as well as Oregon covering this huge spread. Note: We’ve arranged a SPECIAL unadvertised 125% bonus up to $400 in FREE bets when you use bonus promo code PREDICTEM at GTBets Sportsbook! They also give you a free half point everytime you bet your favorite NFL, college football, NBA and college basketball team!

Best Teasers

3 Team: 6 pt Teasers 6.5 pt Teasers 7 pt Teasers
1.8/1 1.65/1 1.5/1
1.65/1 1.5/1 1.35/1
1.6/1 1.5/1 1.35/1