Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Thursday, October 29, 2026
8:15 PM ET, Lambeau Field (Prime Video)
The Packers are 3.5-point favorites over the Panthers with the total down to 46.5. My top player prop is Josh Jacobs Over 59.5 rushing yards (-109).
Tampa Bay ran for 258 yards on Carolina last Sunday. Chicago ran for 291 in Week 1. Now the Panthers fly to Lambeau on a short week to face a back who just shook off six weeks of rust, and the books want me to believe he gets stopped short of 60 yards? I’ll take that bet.
Carolina’s run defense is a revolving door, and Jacobs has the key
The Panthers allow 5.2 yards per carry and 153.2 rushing yards per game. Both numbers are dead last in the NFL. Carolina spent the week talking about fixing it, but there’s no fix in a walkthrough-only short week, and they’ll be without top edge rusher Jaelan Phillips (hamstring), who is out again.
Jacobs came off the commissioner’s exempt list last week and had a quiet 11 carries for 36 yards in Detroit, against a far tougher front. Still, he caught five passes for 55 yards and a touchdown, and he was clearly the back Green Bay trusted. MarShawn Lloyd is averaging 2.6 yards per carry this season, so this backfield needs Jacobs, not a committee. The market agrees. His number opened in the mid-50s and has been bet up to 59.5, and his carries prop sits at 14.5. Give him 15 or 16 carries against this defense and he only needs about four yards a pop to cash.
The game script helps too. Green Bay is laying points at home and its defense ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed, a measure of how much each snap hurts an opponent’s scoring chances. If the Packers grab a lead, they lean on the ground in the second half against a tired, banged-up front.
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Second helping: Bryce Young Under 252.5 passing yards (-113)
Young came into Week 7 leading the league in passing yards per game, and then Tampa Bay held him to 163 yards with two picks, a lost fumble and five sacks. I don’t think that was a fluke. His protection got worse this week. Right tackle Taylor Moton is on IR with a fractured fibula, and guards Damien Lewis and Torricelli Simpkins III are both out, leaving Carolina with seven healthy offensive linemen on the roster.
Green Bay’s defense ranks sixth against dropbacks and has nine interceptions, even without Micah Parsons. Pressure, short drops and a Packers offense that wants to grind the clock with Jacobs all point to fewer snaps and fewer yards for Young. His number was 255.5 last week, and it hasn’t come down much after a dud.
Why I could be wrong
Green Bay’s offensive line is a mess. Center Sean Rhyan and guard Travis Glover are out, and second-year center John Williams had never taken an NFL offensive line snap before Sunday. The Packers are averaging a league-worst 2.9 yards per carry, so Jacobs may have to grind for every inch. A Jacobs fumble or a blowout in either direction could cut his carries. Young can also burn me if Carolina falls behind early and throws 40 times, since garbage-time yards count the same.
Projected stat lines: Josh Jacobs 17 carries, 74 rushing yards, plus 3 catches. Bryce Young 21 of 33 for 221 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
Pass lines: I’d play Jacobs up to 62.5 rushing yards and pass at 64.5 or higher. I’d play the Young Under down to 246.5 and pass at 244.5 or lower.
The Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
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