Stanford Cardinal (8-2 SU, 4-4-2 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (10-0 SU, 6-3 ATS)
College Football Week 12
Date and Time: Saturday, November 17, 2012 8:00PM
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
TV: ABC
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: STAN +21.5/OR -21.5
Over/Under Total: 65
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Saturday night, 8pm, prime time television. Yep, that’s what we have when the Stanford Cardinal travels to Eugene, Oregon for a huge Pac-12 battle. This contest could realistically be one of the final tests for the number 2 ranked Oregon Ducks as they attempt to march their way to the BCS National Title game. Oregon comes in with the most high powered, high scoring offense in the nation, while Stanford relies on their tough defense for their success. The line has opened at 21.5 points in favor of the Oregon Ducks. They have covered their last 3 spreads of over 20 points. Will they make it 4?
The University of Oregon. While they are highly thought of, they simply cannot get enough respect to be the number one team in all the land. They have been jumped on numerous occasions and currently sit ranked second in the BCS standings behind top ranked Kansas State. Oregon has put up tons of points all season long but they have not yet faced a scoring defense ranked in the top 60. Just a few numbers on these high powered Ducks. They come in ranked 1st in the nation scoring almost 55 points per contest while rushing for slightly over 325 yards per game. Many are under the assumption that Oregon is a run only team. With that said, yes, they do enjoy spreading the field out and getting the ball to their blazing playmakers, but they aren’t too shabby at tossing the pigskin around either. They only rank 57th in that area, but that’s good enough for over 250 yards a game. So take a second to look and you’ll see that Oregon is putting up nearly 600 yards of offense PER GAME! That is absolutely astounding. Will the hard nosed defense of Stanford be able to slow them down?
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Many thought that after Stanford lost Andrew Luck to the NFL, that this season would be a huge rebuilding year with very little success. Well, that has certainly not been the case. The Stanford team has managed an 8-2 record while knocking off 2 top 15 teams and taking undefeated Notre Dame all the way to overtime. Not only has Stanford played well, but they have put together a top 15 scoring defense only allowing slightly over 17 points per game to be scored. I for one feel like this team is one of the more underappreciated teams in the nation. They come into this game ranked 13th in the BCS and if they can pull off this win over high powered Oregon, there is no reason they won’t be seen in the top 10. There are 2 keys for Stanford to stay in this game. 1) Control the ball on offense. Shorten the game and keep the Ducks offense off the field. 2) D up! Stanford will need to win the line of scrimmage battle and disrupt some of the offensive schemes that the Ducks throw at them. I like Stanford A LOT, but do they have what it takes to have with our feathered friends from Eugene?
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: A 21.5 point spread? That seems like a big spread for a top 15 matchup, but ORE has been covering these types of lines all season long. They average over 50 points a game and not one opponent has been able to even slow them down. With that said, I like Stanford’s chances. The Cardinal will be the best defense faced by Oregon all year, and it’s not even close. Stanford ranks 12th in the nation in scoring defense while no other team that Oregon has faced even ranked in the top 60. I did a little digging and found some interesting numbers of both these teams recent history playing against the spread (ATS). For starters, Oregon is flat out nasty. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games while they are 4-0 against teams with a winning record. Sounds like it is a no brainer to take Oregon but hold up, check these stats out. Stanford is 6-2 in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning record and they have also covered the spread in over 80% of their games played in November the last 3 seasons. I am taking my chances this week and going against the public. I like Stanford. Not only do I like Stanford to cover the 21.5, don’t be stunned if come Saturday night or early Sunday morning that Oregon is no longer unbeaten. I’m betting STANFORD at +21.5
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