TCU Horned Frogs (8-1 SU, 8-1 ATS) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS)
College Football Week 12
Date and Time: Saturday, November 15, 3:00pm EST
Where: Memorial Stadium - Lawrence, Kansas
TV: Fox Sports 1
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TCU -28/KAN +28
Over/Under Total: 58.5
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This Saturday in Lawrence, Kansas, we have a Big 12 contest between two teams that are on totally opposite ends of the spectrum. The TCU Horned Frogs, who are ranked fourth in the nation will travel into Memorial Stadium to take on the Kansas Jayhawks who come into this game at 3-6 overall, and 1-5 in the conference. Many think this game will be a blowout, and I tend to think so too. But we have all learned something over the years, never just assume a team will blow someone out, just because they should.
Speaking of a blowout, the line for this game opens with TCU as a 28 point road favorite. The total points are set at 58.5 which is typical for a TCU game now days. As far as these teams records against the spread, TCU dominates that category too. At 8-1 overall, TCU is also 8-1 against the spread. Kansas on the other hand comes in at 4-5 against the spread. Four touchdown spreads are rare, but TCU is a very strong team, lets see if we want to go with them, or fade the fave.
TCU has found themselves right in the mix of the college football playoff hunt. At number four in the country, the Horned Frogs pretty much control their own destiny at this point. With just one loss, a crazy last second 61-58 loss to Baylor, TCU is still considered one of the most dangerous teams in the land. Head coach, Gary Patterson, has done a great job with this program and it appears they are getting stronger and stronger each year. TCU is not only ranked high, they are statistically one of the top teams in the nation from top to bottom. The Horned Frogs rank 8th in passing yards and 3rd in the nation in scoring offense. Not only that, their run game is ranked in the nations top 25, while their defense is only allowing 22.3 points per game. Being favored by 28 points is a testament to the respect that TCU is gaining nationwide. The key to being able to pull this off however, is to play a complete game for four quarters. If TCU comes out from start to finish, I could see them winning this game in a big way. However, if TCU coasts in and does not respect Kansas, this could be closer than it has to be.
The Kansas Jayhawks are just not a very good football team. They are 3-6 overall and 1-5 in the conference. The Jayhawks rank in the bottom third of nearly every statistical category. Offensively, they are 86th in passing offense, 91st in rushing yards, and an awful 121st in the nation in scoring offense. Now that we see how bad the offense is in Lawrence, lets look at the defense… ok, well it is no better. Ranked just 90th in the nation, the Jayhawks are allowing opponents to score 30 points a game. As much as I usually like to give the home team the benefit of the doubt, especially in games with a spread as large as this, but it is tough to find any reason to pick Kansas here. Just listen to some of these losses they have suffered this season: 41-3, 23-0, 60-14, and 33-14. This team is just bad…really bad.
I hate to just take a team and tear them apart but Kansas is really outclassed in this one. TCU is the better team in every way. There is not one advantage that I can see the Jayhawks having. Deep down a part of me wants to face myself and just take the 28 points and Kansas, but I cannot. TCU has dominated not just their opponents straight up, but against the spread as well. I like TCU in this one…BIG. I predict a 56-17 type game here.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I may sound like a square here, but I am going to take TCU -28 and over the posted total of 58.5 points.