TCU Horned Frogs (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) vs. Texas Longhorns (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS)
College Football Week 14
Date and Time: Thursday, November 27, 7:30pm EST
Where: Royal Texas Memorial Stadium - Austin, Texas
TV: Fox Sports 1
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TCU -6.5/TEX +6.5
Over/Under Total: 56.5
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Thanksgiving night, in my opinion, the best game to watch is this one. The TCU Horned Frogs will travel into Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns. TCU is in position to potentially make the college football playoffs, while Texas and first year head coach, Charlie Strong are still looking for that signature win on the 2014 season. TCU comes in at 9-1 overall and 6-1 in the Big 12 while Texas is 6-5 overall and 5-3 in the conference. For many years, the casual football fan was used to the Longhorns being the better of these teams but things have changed lately. TCU has only become a great team in Texas, they are making a case as one of the best teams in the nation.
The line opens with the Texas Longhorns as the 6.5 point hone underdog, while the total points are set at 56.5. Both of these teams have actually played well against the spread in 2014. Texas is 7-4, while TCU is 8-2. So far in Vegas, 67% of the action is sitting on the road favorite TCU Horned Frogs, while just 33% of bettors have faith in the Longhorns. This game will come down to defense in my opinion. I would not be stunned to see this game end in any way. Whether it be a 20 point TCU win, or a Texas Longhorns upset win.
TCU has seen themselves in the top ten in the nation the last few years, but this could finally be the season when they get a fair shot to win a national championship. TCU sits at 9-1 overall and their only loss was that crazy 61-58 thriller to Baylor that they lost in the final seconds. TCU lost a little respect here recently after their close against Kansas in which they won just 34-30. If TCU plans on getting into that final four, not only will they need a little help from other teams, but they also need to win some games in convincing fashion. TCU has the 2nd best scoring offense in the country, averaging right at 46 points a game, and their defense is ranked 35th in points allowed. If the Horned Frogs want to win this game, and get the 6.5 point cover, they will need to get the offense clicking. Texas is not a team that will win a shootout with you, so if TCU can get into the 30-40 point range, I do not see the Longhorns hanging in there with them. However, if TCU sputters on offense and they let Texas stick around, things could get very interesting.
The Texas Longhorns are in the major transition period under new coach, Charlie Strong. Strong has not only changed the culture, but he has already kicked off nine players. He is cleaning house in a major way. It is going to take this program a few years to get back on track, but being the University of Texas, they do have athletes on campus that will always compete. Texas has lost its share of games, but they have also played pretty good in big ones as well. Having already knocked off West Virginia, and taking Oklahoma and UCLA down to the wire, Texas can show up in big games. And that is exactly what this is. An upset over 5th ranked TCU would erase much of the disaster that this season has been for the Longhorns. In order to get a win here, Texas will need to play better in many areas than they have all season. On offense, Texas is not ranked in the top 75 in passing nor rushing, and to make things worse, their scoring offense is ranked 94th in the nation. However, on the bright side, the Texas defense is ranked 24th in the country in points allowed. If Texas can slow down the TCU offense, they may have a shot to keep this thing close.
I truly believe this game will come down to the final moments, and I like Texas to show up and try to pull the major upset. TCU can score, but the Texas defense has played pretty stout all season long. I am calling it now. An ugly, low scoring, 23-20 win for the Texas Longhorns in Austin. It will be the first big win for Charlie Strong and the new regime, and it will also eliminate TCU from any final four discussion.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: PICK THE TEXAS LONGHORNS +6.5 AND UNDER THE TOTAL POINTS OF 56.5 POINTS