No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday September 26th, 7:00PM EST
Where: AT&T Stadium Arlington, T.X.
TV: ESPN
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: A&M -7.5/ARK +7.5
Over/Under Total: TBA
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One of the marquee games on the college gridiron this week will feature the Southwest Classic when the no. 14 Texas A&M Aggies meet the Arkansas Razorbacks inside AT&T Stadium. The Razorbacks have struggled tremendously to start the season suffering back to back upset losses to Toledo and Texas Tech. Arkansas will try to avoid their 3rd straight loss this week as they open conference play against an Aggies team that has beaten them 3 straight years.
The 3-0 Aggies are currently ranked 14th in the country and their offense has been thoroughly impressive throughout the start of the season. Texas A&M currently has the 13th best scoring offense through the first 3 games averaging a whopping 46 points per game. Quarterback Kyle Allen has the Aggies offense in full stride just as they were at the beginning of the 2014 season before fading towards the end of the year. Allen has tossed 9 touchdowns with just 2 picks already this season while completing 61% of his throws. If you consider the fact that Arkansas has relinquished 232 yards per game through the air, it definitely appears that the Razorbacks defense could have some troubles this Thursday.
One of the ways that Arkansas has countered strong offenses under Bret Bielema is by controlling the ground game to keep opposing offenses off the field. The entire Arkansas offense has not been quite as good thus far in 2015. However, the Razorbacks do have a stud running back in Alex Collins to lean on. Collins has tallied 351 yards on 60 carries thus far this season averaging near 6 yards per carry. Quarterback Brandon Allen has also been pretty decent hitting 67% passing with 6 scores and 2 picks.
Arkansass offense has the capability to rack up points but they have just not capitalized on scoring opportunities and have had little help from the defense this season. The Razorbacks had more than 500 yards and only 12 points to show for it in the loss to Western Kentucky. Against Texas Tech, the defense simply could not stay off the field as Red Raiders moved the ball at will. The good news for Arkansas fans is that they have yet to put together a good game on both sides of the ball and are strong enough to pull off the upset if they can put things together this Saturday.
The Aggies defense could be suspect in this type of game against an offense that can play keep away. However, Texas A&M has so much firepower that they may not need too much time with the football. I am not convinced that Arkansas has anyone in their defensive secondary that matches up well against Aggies WR Christian Kirk. Kirk has posted decent numbers thus far with 16 catches for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, I think he is store for a big game this Saturday.
From a betting standpoint, Arkansas has covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record and 11-4 against the number in the last 15 games overall. To make matters worse, the Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Texas A&M. The Aggies are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall despite winning 4 of their last 5 straight up. The total has also gone under the mark in 7 of the Razorbacks last 8 games while the total has gone under the mark in 5 of the last 7 games for the Aggies.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: It appears that everyone is on the Aggies this week because Arkansas has looked pretty bad losing the last two weeks. However, I am not convinced that Arkansas is a bad team and that they cannot right the ship. Texas A&M has a really good offense but I am more interested to see if their defense can stay off the field. Until they prove me wrong, I simply think this is a bad matchup for the Aggies. Consider Arkansas and the points!
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