Texas A&M Aggies vs. Auburn Tigers Pick ATS 12/5/20

by | Dec 1, 2020 | cfb

No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Auburn Tigers (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, December 5th, 2020. 12:00PM (EST)

Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium Auburn, AL

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: A&M -6.5/Auburn +6.5 (Bookmaker - One of oldest and most trusted online!)

Over/Under Total: 47.5

The 5th ranked Texas A&M Aggies took down the LSU Tigers in an uneventful 20-7 conclusion last week to move to 6-1 SU. The Aggies have two games remaining on the schedule, including this week’s showdown with no. 22 Auburn on the plains at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Currently, Texas A&M is listed as 6.5 point favorites, and if they can capture a victory over Auburn; they could legitimately end the season at 8-1 SU and create a backdoor opportunity to a College Football Playoffs appearance.

However, the Aggie’s path to those opportunities will likely be decided on the plains this Saturday as Auburn looks to bounce back following an ugly 42-13 loss to Alabama in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers have historically bounced back strong following poor performances under Head Coach Gus Malzahn, and the stylistic match-up from both teams should create a competitive pairing on Saturday. The Tigers have only lost back to back regular-season games once since 2015, which could present an opportunistic betting opportunity with Auburn getting 6.5 points as home underdogs in this weekend’s meeting as they seek their 4th straight victory over the Aggies.

Styles make match-ups: Texas A&M vs. Auburn

At first glance, this betting line may appear very conservative for the 5th ranked Aggies. Texas A&M’s body of work is vastly more impressive with a lone loss to Alabama and marquee victory over no. 4 Florida, who appears destined for an SEC Championship Game appearance. Meanwhile, Auburn is 5-3 SU on the season, which has included ugly losses to Georgia, South Carolina, and most recently, a 42-13 embarrassment in the Iron Bowl to Alabama. Auburn’s best victory on paper this season came against no. 23 Kentucky in the opener, but it is safe to say the Wildcats were extremely overrated at the time because they currently sit at 3-6 SU.

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So why are the Aggies just 6.5 point favorites against a perceived inferior opponent? Well, the answer revolves around the stylistic match-up this Saturday. The Aggies offense is based around an effective run game and ball control. The Aggies put a great deal of faith in their defense and rarely have big-play scoring possessions. Both Texas A&M and Auburn run a lot of run-pass-options (RPOs) that look to take advantage of defensive sets. From a scheme standpoint, these offenses are designed to exploit weaknesses with an efficient running attack and not necessarily designed to attack with big passing plays. As a result, the match-up will likely be very competitive on Saturday. Even if you still give the Aggies the advantage, they have not blown teams away this season by any stretch of the imagination, which we saw last week in the 20-7 win over LSU. Therefore if Auburn can come up with a few big plays on the offensive side of the football, they could definitely be “live” for the upset.

Texas A&M vs. Auburn Betting Analysis

I am not a fan of either quarterback in this game. Aggies QB Kellen Mond has been the more efficient passer with 16 touchdowns and two picks; however, he is only completing 58% of his throws. Mond is a typical game manager that thrives once defenses become lured towards stopping the run. Meanwhile, Auburn QB Bo Nix is even worse. Nix has thrown ten touchdowns compared to 7 interceptions this season and is quick to use his legs when pressured. While I don’t expect much from the quarterbacks in this match-up, both offenses have reliable running attacks that can create opportunities.

The Aggies have the edge on defense, but I still believe Auburn’s scheme will have success. Ultimately, there is a reason the total for this game is listed at just 47 points, which can be explained by both the offensive match-ups that I described along with the solid defensive play both teams are capable of producing. Personally, I believe the match-up is much closer than what the poll rankings or records may suggest. Therefore, I am siding with the home team that is getting nearly a touchdown cushion and hoping Auburn’s offense can make a few plays. I just don’t see enough value on the other side to bet the Aggies with confidence.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Auburn +6.5. Bet your pick for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH BONUS on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at one of the web’s best sportsbooks —-> MyBookie! (Must use bonus code: PREDICT100)