Texas A&M vs. Alabama Analysis & Prediction 10/3/20

by | Sep 28, 2020 | cfb

No. 13 Texas A&M Aggies (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, October 3rd 2020. 3:30PM (EST)

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium Tuscaloosa, AL.


Point Spread: A&M +17/ALA -17 (Find the top rated sportsbooks)

Over/Under Total: 53.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide’s path to an SEC Championship got a little easier last week thanks to LSU’s unforeseen upset at the hands of Mississippi State. While there is still a ton of football left in the season, the Crimson Tide appears to be the best in the west. However, Jimbo Fisher’s 13th ranked Texas A&M Aggies will roll into Tuscaloosa this Saturday with upset aspirations. The Aggies posted an unimpressive 17-12 victory in their opener last week against Vanderbilt and will be getting a generous 17 point margin when they battle the Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium this Saturday.

The Crimson Tide handled business in their opener last week with a 38-19 victory over Missouri. The Tigers actually scored 13 points in the final minutes of the game to make the final score appear more respectable. The Crimson Tide defense was impressive in the contest, especially against the run. Alabama’s defense held Missouri to 69 total rushing yards on 34 attempts yielding a measly 2.0 yards per attempt. Alabama’s defensive prowess is the reason the Crimson Tide are favored by 17 points this week in their homestand against Texas A&M, and I personally believe that number may still be a touch too generous!

Bet on Alabama’s defense against Texas A&M

Coach Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies have not exactly provided a ton of fireworks on the offensive side of the football during his tenure in College Station. I believe the reason for that narrative belongs to Fisher’s run-heavy approach and the fact QB Kellen Mond has limited the offenses’ explosiveness. No disrespect to Mond, but he has had four years to improve his throwing capabilities, and it just has not happened. Mond’s most dangerous asset is his rushing ability. The 4th year senior has posted a career 57% completion percentage and barely a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Running back Isaiah Spiller has home run threat potential in the backfield and appeared to have improved in last week’s win over Vanderbilt.

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The problem for Mond, Spiller, and the Aggies run-heavy offense is that Alabama is perfectly designed to stop the run. The Crimson Tide’s strength lies in the trenches. Even on offense, Alabama has reverted back to a power football team after a few years of opening the playbook with Tua Tagovailoa. Current QB Mac Jones is a solid talent, but he will be in a game management role as the offense looks to feature running back Najee Harris with the support of Alabama’s defense. This offense will pound the football and limit the Aggies’ touches. When Texas A&M has the football, they will be looking at an extremely challenging uphill match-up. Unless Mond makes a few big plays in the passing game, this will be an extremely difficult challenge for Texas A&M’s offense based solely on stylistic match-ups and talent.

Texas A&M/Alabama Total Prediction

When I first saw this betting line, I immediately thought the total was posted too high. The Aggies scored just 17 points against Vanderbilt last week, and their ceiling is not much higher this Saturday with a much lower probabilistic floor. I think oddsmakers are still expecting the pass-happy explosive Alabama offense of the last few years to keep the Crimson Tide in the end zone. However, Alabama’s offense in 2020 is heavily focused on controlling the football, much like Nick Saban did in the early years of his reign in Tuscaloosa. Therefore, I think this total is posted way too high.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Aggies have hit the under in 5 of their last 5 games. I believe that is the play here again. Take the under 53 and consider a small play on Alabama -17. Bet this game and all your Week 4 NFL/Week 5 college football picks FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook!