UCLA Bruins (3-0) 3-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U at Stanford Cardinal (3-1) 2-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U Saturday October 3, 2009 3:30 p.m. EST
by Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: UCLA +6/Stanford -6
Over/Under: 45.5
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The UCLA Bruins are at the top of the Pac-10 and currently undefeated at 3-0 as they visit the Stanford Cardinal this weekend. The Bruins are coming off of a 23-9 win over Kansas State. Kevin Craft of UCLA got a chance to play quarterback as he filled in for Kevin Prince.
Craft threw for 186 yards on 13 of 24 and a touchdown. Craft also had one interception. He tossed 20 INTs last season and heard a lot of harsh words from the fans but in this game he was welcomed and treated well.
The Bruins big spark plug was freshman running back Johnathan Franklin who had a career night. Franklin carried the ball 23 times for 119 yards and a touchdown. UCLA has done a great job of balancing out their offense as they spread the wealth both on the ground and through the air.
UCLA comes into the game averaging 25 points per game through their first three contests. The Bruins are gaining more than 300 yards per game in total offensive yards. Their defense is only allowing 12 points per game. The Bruins have held teams to just 74 yards rushing which works out to be about 2.3 yards per carry.
Stanford comes into this game averaging 33 points per game and nearly 100 yards more in total offense than the Bruins. The Cardinal rushing game is one of their strengths as they average 233 yards on the ground for 6 yards per carry. Stanfords defense is allowing 17 ppg to their opponents. The Cardinal have given up more passing yards than rushing as they allow 212 yds per game through the first four games.
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The Bruins will need to find a way to contain Stanfords outstanding running back Toby Gerhart. Gerhart rushed for a career high 200 yards on 27 touches and one touchdown. His longest run was for 60 yards. Stanford had a total of 424 offensive yards with 321 yards coming on the ground. Cardinal QB Andrew Luck was 7 of 14 for 103 yards and he also ran for a 9 yard score late in the game.
The Huskies were on cloud nine as they were fresh off of a huge upset win over then No. 3 USC the week before this meeting with Stanford. The Cardinal knocked off the No. 24 ranked Huskies and opened up the Pac 10 race. This conference might have another team besides USC at the top come December.
The Bruins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after giving up less than 20 points in their previous contest. UCLA is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 conference games.
Stanford is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as the favorite, and they are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
The under is 6-0 at Stanford in their last 6 home games when the line is 3.5-10. Head to head, the under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 contests. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
This Pac-10 matchup should be a great one to watch as conference title hopes may be on the line this weekend. UCLA head coach Rick Neuheisel is well aware of Stanfords star running back Toby Gerhart as Neuheisel expressed his admiration for the back earlier this week, but more importantly will be the scheme developed to stop Gerhart from running wild.
Wilsons Pick: This should be a tight game throughout with UCLA sticking close for the cover. Stanford 31, UCLA 28. Luck to ya.
