Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs Picks

by | Dec 1, 2021 | cfb

Utah State Aggies (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (11-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 4, 3 p.m.

Where: Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, Calif.

TV: Fox

Point Spread: USU +6/SDSU -6 (MyBookie - Use bonus code PREDICT100 and they’ll give you a 100% bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300! The ultimate bankroll booster!)

Total: O/U 50

Outlook

This one won’t be a rematch of an earlier game this season in the Mountain West title game, and that’s probably for the best from Utah State’s perspective because this matchup has been pure torture for the Aggies. The teams haven’t played often, but when they have, it’s gone very badly for Utah State, which is 2-13 against San Diego State all time. The Aztecs won the most recent matchup going away by a 38-7 count, and they’ve won four of the past five matchups by an average margin of 31.5 points.

However, Utah State has been an incredibly reliable bet as of late, covering in five of its past six games and doing it by putting up a fair amount of points. The Aggies have hit 35 points in four of the past five games, and they’ve done it with a potent passing attack. That’s helpful in this matchup because while San Diego State does a great job against the run, it’s susceptible to a strong passing attack. But the Aggies have only topped 14 points once against the Aztecs over the past ten meetings — the one game that they actually won against them.

How the Public is Betting the Utah State/San Diego State Game

Both the sharps and the public are in agreement for this one, as the spread has ticked up from -3.5 to -6 with 74 percent of the tickets on the Aztecs. The total has dropped slightly, falling from 50.5 to 50.

Injury Concerns

Utah State:
Offensive lineman Jacob South (knee) is questionable.

San Diego State:
San Diego State reports no injuries.

When Utah State Has the Ball

Stopping Utah State is mostly about shutting down the connection between Logan Bonner and Deven Thompkins, as Thompkins has gone for 1,543 yards and nine touchdowns on the season, nearly half of the yards that Bonner has thrown for this season. The only other Aggie receiver who has even half as many as Thompkins’ 87 catches is Brandon Bowling, who’s one over halfway there at 44.

But when the Aggies get close to the end zone, Derek Wright is the one to watch, as he’s hauled in 10 touchdowns on the season out of 39 catches. All three might come into play in this game, in part because the Aggies throw for twice as many yards as they gain on the ground and in part because San Diego State’s defense is geared toward stopping the run rather than the pass. The Aztecs have even better numbers against the run than Georgia, but the pass defense ranks 80th in the nation, which represents a real opportunity for the Aggies to control the game with the big play.

When San Diego State Has the Ball

When you have two quarterbacks, you have none, and the Aztecs certainly don’t have a quarterback at their disposal this season, having gone back and forth between Jordon Brookshire and Lucas Johnson and somehow making it work despite the lack of success on offense. Against Boise State, Brookshire managed 192 passing yards while Johnson threw for 98, hardly numbers you would expect from a winning team.

Yet the Aztecs won anyway, in large part because of the work from the defense. San Diego State’s a lot like Oklahoma State: the Aztecs don’t try to do too much on offense; they instead choose to let the defense do the work and set them up with shorter fields. As long as the offense doesn’t turn the ball over, the Aztecs figure that the opponent will eventually shoot themselves in the foot and make the crucial mistake that costs them the game. That’s exactly what happened a week ago against Boise State, with the Aztecs forcing three turnovers and having the offense do just enough to swing the game from the Broncos.

More Picks: Big 12 Championship Game Odds & Picks >>>

Betting Trends

Taking the favorite has generally been the way to go in this matchup, as the favorite has covered four of the last five times these teams have faced off. However, the Aztecs have generally not played well as a favorite as of late, failing to cover in three of their past four games as a favorite and pushing in the other game.
The other trend when the Aztecs are favored is to take the under, as the under has cashed in 20 of San Diego State’s last 29 games when favored. That fits quite well with Utah State’s recent history; the under is 10-1-1 in the Aggies’ past 12 games in December.

Weather Report

It’s Southern California in the daylight, which means a comfortable day outdoors. Temperatures will hit 70 degrees, with winds blowing at 5 miles per hour to the west-northwest.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

It’s hard to make a pick in this game, given that the Aztecs have been outstanding on defense but don’t really have the ability to stop the thing that the Aggies want to do best. Nor does San Diego State have the ability to pass its way back into the game should things go wrong in the early going.
It seems counterintuitive to take the Aggies given their awful history against the Aztecs and San Diego State’s 11-1 record, but this matchup seems to favor Utah State. I’ll take the Aggies and the points. Question: Did you know that you could be betting on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Imagine how much money you’d have saved over the past year betting at reduced odds? Stop wasting money! Start saving BIG BUCKS today by making the switch to BetAnySports Sportsbook!