Virginia Cavaliers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Miami Hurricanes (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS)
College Football Week 12
Date and Time: Saturday, November 18th, 2017 12:00 PM ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium Miami, FL
TV:ACC NETWORK
by Keith F., Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: UVA +18.5/MIA -18.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
It The Miami Hurricanes will once again take on the hosting duties in a high-profile contest as they welcome the Virginia Cavaliers to Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday, November 18th, 2017. The kick-off time is slotted for 12:00 PM ET and will be televised for national audiences on the ACC Network. For Miami, they have already secured their end of the bargain and punched their ticket to the ACC Championship Game to face off with Clemson on December 2nd. The Hurricanes come in off perhaps the most impressive victory across America in Week 11 when they routed the then ranked #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 41-8 at home. The last meeting between the two sides in Charlottesville in 2016 was all Canes, as The U would march past the Wahoos by a score of 31-14. Overall the series has been Miamis as of late as they have won three of the previous four contests against the Hoos. Furthermore, it is also worth noting that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings. Additionally, Virginia is 5-1 ATS in their previous six outings at Miami. Also, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests between the two.
The trends however are not as pertinent as the set up here for Miami to find itself entrenched in a dogfight. The Cavaliers are off the radar as they come into this contest suffering a bitter 38-21 loss at Louisville where they failed to cover as a 13.5-point dog. Virginia is bowl eligible but again the game is of little consequence be that there are no bigger stakes to play for. With arch-rival Virginia Tech looming just around the corner, some will wonder if the Hoos give this one a full go in preparation for the Battle of the Commonwealth.
However, the concern is more so with the hangover that may accompany the Canes after their high-profile win against the Fighting Irish. The Hurricanes absolutely battered Notre Dame and the result was visible for national audiences. As a result, a reaction is likely taking shape. Furthermore, those who doubted the Hurricanes credentials as a viable contender are now hopping aboard the Miami train after their compelling win. The Canes went from being classed as a paper tiger to a playoff team overnight. Nevertheless, one can deduce that Notre Dame was never as good as the pundits had talked them up to be. The media had been relentless in their revelry of the Fighting Irish for weeks and the scenario was set up for Notre Dame to take a hard tumble against a team that was shown a lack of respect. Miami now has gone from the hunter to the hunted, as discussions have begun as to whether The U is back under former Georgia Head Coach, Mark Richt.
Currently in this market, the public have hopped all over the Hurricanes. Such an effect is likely to produced given what transpired last week in the renewal of the Catholics vs. Convicts Rivalry. As a result of the heavy leaning by the public in the early stages, the asking price for Miami has risen by 1.5 points.
Targeting over-reactions is a big part of our approach. This scenario sets up perfectly for that to occur. As a result of Miamis win in Hard Rock Stadium you can also expect to pay a premium here to back the Hurricanes. Had Miami lost, this market would have been far more friendlier to Hurricanes takers. Albeit, the Canes have moved up in the polls and are prognosticated by some to make the College Football Playoff. However, it is important not to caught laying extra lumber by getting caught up in the fanfare and hype. The Cavaliers own a win at Boise State this season where they absolutely obliterated the Broncos 42-23 despite entering as a near two-touchdown dog. It would be a dangerous move for Miami to be caught napping here after a big win but more often than not, huge victories often produce that scenario. Take the points.
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