Washington State Cougars at Oregon Ducks Pick 10/26/19

by | Oct 23, 2019 | cfb

Washington State Cougars (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) at No. 11 Oregon Ducks (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS)
College Football Week 9
Date and Time: Saturday, October 26, 2019, 10:30 PM EST
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR.
TV: ESPN, DTV: 206

Point Spread: WSU +14 /OR -14 (GTBets)
Over/Under Total: 64

Power Ratings: OR by 11

Cougars have had the Ducks Number, but is that Going to End?

Washington State’s defense finally looked good last week in their 41-10 win over Colorado. WSU Coach Mike Leach said, “Well, people who run to the ball have a funny way of getting turnovers.” Leach challenged his defense before the game to pursue the football more intensely and it worked for them. If WSU’s defense plays as good as they did versus the Buffaloes, they might have a chance to hold Oregon in check, but it will be a tall task. WSU has won the last four meetings with the Ducks.

Oregon’s Outlook for this Matchup

As previously mentioned, the Oregon Ducks have lost the last four meetings with Washington State including last year’s epic College Gameday showdown in Pullman 34-20. It is something the Ducks would like to get off their bills. Oregon has been the favorite in this game going back to May when the Golden Nugget Las Vegas opened with the Ducks as six-point favorites and then in August The Westgate Superbook opened with Oregon as five and half point favorites—the line this week opened at Oregon -15.5 but has settled currently at 13.5 in favor of the Ducks. A bright note here for the Ducks is they have not lost as a ranked team to a non-ranked Cougar team since 2006. Also, the Ducks have covered as the favorite four times this year.

How the Public is Betting the Game

The public is currently betting WSU 13.8 percent and Oregon 86.2 percent. The Over/Under percentage is currently 76 percent OVER and 24 percent UNDER.

More Picks: Big Ten Battle: Wisconsin at Ohio State Pick ATS

Injury Concerns

WSU: WR Jamire Calvin is out with right foot injury—no return time available.

UO: Cornerback, Deommodore Lenoir is expected to play after suffering a late undisclosed injury last week in the comeback win at Washington.

When Washington State has the Ball

Most are aware of the Cougars air-raid offense which targets eight or more receivers on any given play. There are two added bonuses to this offense—RB Max Borghi and PK Blake Mazza. Borghi continues to get better every week and in fact has been a lot of the conversation around the Coug’s success. The questions coming in are what would it look like if Borghi got 30 touches or more per contest? He is a gamer and almost always gets the first defender to miss the tackle allowing him to extend the play and pick up often, crucial yardage for the Cougs. The other bonus is PK Blake Mazza. Mazza, the redshirt sophomore for the Cougs is having a fantastic season thus far. He hasn’t missed a FG in 10 attempts. He hasn’t hit a game winner yet this year, but he’s knocked down some tough kicks in rain and wind along with FGs from 50 and 51 yards. He could be a difference maker this week given the opportunity.

When Oregon has the Ball

Oregon struggled early last week at Washington but adjusted along the way which proved to be successful. The Ducks added two tight ends and focused more on establishing the run game which in turn opened the door for more passing and scoring opportunities. They countered UW’s defensive packages and it won the game for them. However, for the first time all year the Ducks defense gave up more points and yardage than they normally allow (before the UW game, Oregon only allowed 11.9 pp), they gave up 31 to the Huskies. If the Ducks find a balance on offense and Senior QB Justin Herbert, makes plays like he can the Ducks will be tough to handle.

Why Bet the road dog to cover?

WSU looks to be back on track after adjusting on defense. The offense is clicking with the return of WR Brandon Arconado coupled with the hard running Borghi should make for a good one in Eugene and the PAC-12 After Dark. I like Washington State to cover the points on the road.

Betting Trends

WSU is 3-4 on the OVER this season.

When Total is greater than 63 WSU is 4-0 straight up this season.

Head to Head: WSU is 2-0 ATS in the last two meetings and the Cougs have won the last 4 meetings.

Weather Report

Game time conditions in Eugene will be in the upper 40s. There is a 30 percent chance of rain. Humidity: 69 percent. Wind: 6 mph

Dave Wilson’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Take Washington State to cover the points on the road and guys, while I have your attention. Check out this site’s top sportsbook bonus list to get the best true value bonus offers!

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