Week 6 Pick: Texas A&M vs. Alabama

by | Oct 6, 2022 | cfb

Texas A&M Aggies (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 6

Date/Time: Saturday October 8th, 2022. 8:00PM (EST)

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium Tuscaloosa, AL

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: A&M +24.5/ALA -24.5 (Wagerweb – Their 20 point college football teasers allow you to make Bama a -4.5 favorite!)

Total: 52

The Alabama Crimson Tide reclaimed the number 1 ranking in college football this week following an impressive 49-26 victory over no. 20 Arkansas. The Crimson Tide got some help from back-to-back unimpressive wins by Georgia which helped the Crimson Tide jump back to the top spot in the polls. This week Alabama puts their number 1 ranking on the line when they host the Texas A&M Aggies as 24.5 point favorites inside Bryant-Denny Stadium.

If you followed the offseason drama in the SEC, perhaps you are familiar with the barbs that Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban and Texas A&M Head Coach Jimbo Fisher traded throughout the summer. I bring up that topic because there is some lingering hostility between both programs, and I don’t expect any mercy to be shown this weekend by either team. Obviously, the Aggies have not lived up to the hype/potential to disrupt Alabama in the SEC West this season which is evident by the 24.5-point betting spread and the fact the Aggies are just 3-2 SU through the first five games.

After getting upset by Appalachian State earlier this season, the Aggies suffered their 2nd embarrassing loss of the season in a sizable 42-24 defeat to Mississippi State. For most of the season, A&M’s issues have been around the offense’s inability to move the football and woes at the quarterback position. In last week’s loss to the Bulldogs, QB Max Johnson actually played well, hitting 19 of 26 passing for 203 yards with a touchdown. However, Johnson suffered an

QB Max Johnson/QB Bryce Young Injury Updates

After getting upset by Appalachian State earlier this season, the Aggies suffered their 2nd embarrassing loss of the season in a sizable 42-24 defeat to Mississippi State last Saturday. For most of the season, A&M’s issues have been around the offense’s inability to move the football and woes at the quarterback position. In last week’s loss to the Bulldogs, new starting QB Max Johnson actually played well, hitting 19 of 26 passing for 203 yards with a touchdown. However, Johnson suffered a thumb injury in the 2nd half and missed the rest of the game. Afterward, former starting QB Haynes King went 6 for 13 passing with two interceptions replicating the type of play that lost him his starting job. The extent of Johnson’s injury has not been released, but there appears to be fear that he could miss time. If that happens, it favors the Crimson Tide in a big way.

Unfortunately, the Aggies are not the only team with injury concerns at the quarterback position. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner QB Bryce Young was banged up following last week’s win over Arkansas. On Monday, Head Coach Nick Saban confirmed that Young was dealing with an AC joint sprain on his throwing shoulder. QB Jalen Milroe essentially went 4 of 9 passing for 65 yards with a touchdown during Young’s early exit. Milroe would be the guy that gets the nod this week if needed, but early reports suggest that Young is expected to play this week. Still, this is a situation worth monitoring throughout the remainder of the week.

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Texas A&M vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

Without the ability to efficiently move the ball through the air, Texas A&M’s offense has relied heavily on RB Devon Achane, who is 3rd in the SEC in rushing yards (466). In fact, Head Coach Jimbo Fisher would rely more on Achane if the Aggies could find a way to avoid early deficits and more obvious passing situations. Either way, this type of offensive play-calling and game management does not bode well for an Alabama defense that is allowing just 87 yards on the ground per game.

On the other side of the ball, we have to question if Alabama will continue to post the big scoring numbers needed this week to cover the 24.5-point betting spread. If Young misses time, we definitely have bigger worries for a cover. If Young is able to go as expected, will he be 100% is another question worth considering. From a match-up standpoint, the Aggies are actually much better against the pass (allowing 188 yards per game) compared to their run defense (allowing 170 yards per game). As a result, I would imagine Alabama attacks with a run-heavy approach to control the game script. I have little doubt Alabama’s offense will have success, especially if they continuously are awarded on the short side of the field, but I also don’t think this is a match-up that is going to produce a ton of scoring either way.

More Picks: Oregon State at Stanford Betting Analysis & Free Pick 10/8/22

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Prediction

I really don’t have any faith in this Aggies’ offense this week, especially if Haynes King is behind center. However, I do believe the Aggies will compete early in this game with an energized defensive effort. If Bryce Young plays, I have to question if he will have the arm strength to be 100% and if that makes Alabama lean heavier on the run. If that happens, it plays to A&M’s defensive strength. Either way, you look at it, the under is the play here.

Jay’s Pick: Under 52. Bet your Week Six NCAA football predictions for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you enter bonus code PREDICTEM on the “Special Offers” page after making your first deposit at Everygame Sportsbook!