Big 12 Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

by | Nov 14, 2018 | cfb

West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 17th, 2018 – 3:30 ET
Where: Boone Pickens Stadium – Stillwater, Oklahoma
TV: ABC

Point Spread: WVU -4.5 / OKIE STATE +4.5 (Best Odds)
Total: 71
Power Ratings: West Virginia -2

Takeaways From Week 11

Any signs of a let-down were quickly put to bed when the Mountaineers defeated upset-minded TCU in a 47-10 beatdown of the Horned Frogs in Morgantown, last Saturday. The Mountaineers covered with ease closing as a 12-point favorite. There were some suspicions that the Mountaineers may have been set-up for to come in flat as they may have still been hungover from a thrilling victory in Austin, Texas the week prior when a game-closing two-point conversion decided a 42-41 shootout against a then top-ten ranked Texas Longhorns.

The Cowboys brought their A-game last week in the annual Bedlam series with their cross-state rivals, the Oklahoma Sooners. Despite being priced as a 21.5-point underdog, the Pokes traded blows with the Sooners for all four quarters where once again a two-point conversion attempt would separate the winner from the loser. Unfortunately for Oklahoma State, they were on the negative end of a 48-47 loss where their attempt failed, unlike West Virginia.

How the Public is Betting the West Virginia- Oklahoma State Game

Currently, 59% of the consensus like West Virginia here as the favorite against Oklahoma State on their own field. Line movements have been riveting in the build-up so far. Initially, we saw the Pokes open as a five-point dog where that number quickly expanded to +5.5 on Monday. Since then, the line has fallen by a point to its current station of +4.5. In a high profile affair such as this, there will be likely steam moves in both directions all week long until the line finally settles on Saturday.

The Historical

The Pokes have held the upper hand in this series as of late, as they have won the last three meetings between the two parties. Last year, Oklahoma State defeated West Virginia 50-39 in Morgantown.

Injury Concerns

There is good news for Oklahoma State as their leading running back Justice Hill is upgraded to probable for Saturday’s game as he recovers from a rib injury.

When Oklahoma State Has the Ball

Oklahoma State continues to show that they can light up the scoreboard at will, as they average 39.2 points per game (13th nationally). Pokes quarterback Taylor Cornelius has now broken the 3,000-yard mark for passing on the season and has tossed 23 touchdowns while doing so. This is a football team that also bodes the services of a 1,272-yard receiver in Tylan Wallace. Collectively, the two spearhead an offense that ranks 12th in the country in the passing department as they accumulate 316.1 yards per game through the air.

When West Virginia Has the Ball

On paper, anything Oklahoma State can do seemingly the Mountaineers can do a bit better. These two teams are carbon copies of each other in essence. Like Oklahoma State, West Virginia also loves to throw the ball through the air, and they have been quite successful at doing so with quarterback Will Grier leading the charge. Presently, the Mountaineers boast the fifth-ranked passing attack in America as WVU collates 337.5 yards per game. This is a West Virginia team that also scores a 10th-ranked 40.9 points per game.

Betting Trends

In addition to their recent supremacy against WVU, the Pokes have been a cash cow in this series as of late as they have gone 3-0 ATS over their three-game winning streak against the Mountaineers. Outside of this, the most notable trend is for Total takers as the Under is 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings.

Weather Report

Temperatures are expected to hover in the mid 30’s with partly cloudy skies in Stillwater. Winds are expected to be around 10 mph with a 15% chance of precipitation. Humidity will be at 78%.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Oklahoma State +5

Many are talking up the potential top-ten showdown between Oklahoma and West Virginia that looms if both teams get a win this week. However, West Virginia does not have the benefit of playing Kansas at home as Oklahoma does. Instead, the Mountaineers are marching into yet another hostile territory where they have run into all sorts of adversity all season long. Not too long ago, West Virginia was mangled on the road at Iowa State to comprise their first loss this season. Their follow-up to this regarding road games was the Texas affair where they were lucky to get a win in the thriller as mentioned above. This West Virginia team perhaps dodged a bullet when their early-season fixture with NC State was postponed due to Hurricane Florence or possibly the boys from the County Roads would be out of the CFP discussion altogether with another loss to their name. Oklahoma State is seething after last week’s result, and you can rest assured that this team will want to secure a bowl bid with style if Head Coach Mike Gundy has anything to say about it. The Pokes had already dismantled a ranked Boise State in Stillwater earlier this season when they were a home dog, and they had Texas on the ropes three weeks ago, the last time they were at home also as a slight underdog. This team is primed for another upset bid this week, and West Virginia needs to make sure they don’t get swept up in the fanfare surrounding their ranking and post-season aspirations.

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