Keeneland favors the Europeans on turf, and three dirt races finish at the sixteenth pole. Here are the picks, overlays, and longshots across the first five Breeders’ Cup races on Future Stars Friday.
2026 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland: Picks and Overlays for All 14 Races
Keeneland has been kind to the Europeans. Very kind. In three Breeders’ Cups at the Lexington oval, European-trained horses won 12 of 20 turf races, including 10 of 14 in 2020 and 2022. The tote keeps letting them go off too big. One backtest of the 2019 to 2025 Breeders’ Cups found European runners won 21 races from 151 starts when their odds said they should have won about 13.
That is the edge on the grass. The dirt is a different story. The Sprint, Distaff and Classic all have favourites with holes in them. And three dirt races, the Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile and Dirt Mile, finish at the sixteenth pole. That shrinks the stretch from 990 feet to 660. Early speed matters.
Here is how I see all 14 races, with the most likely winner and the overlays worth your money. Post times are Eastern, and odds are morning-line prices.
This column was updated Thursday night after a wave of scratches. Magnitude is out of the Classic and retired. Splendora is out of the Distaff. Great Barrier Reef, Man’s Best Friend and Induction are out of the Juvenile Turf. The forecast is dry, so expect firm turf and a fast main track both days.
Friday, Oct. 30: Future Stars Friday
Race 6: Juvenile Turf Sprint
Friday, 2:55 p.m. ET. 5½ furlongs, turf.
Top picks: #3 Libertango (5-2), #4 Brickyard Belle (3-1), #9 Final Objective (8-1), #5 Mussab (15-1)
Longshots and overlays: #9 Final Objective (8-1), #1 Moonrise (12-1), #11 Hell Of A Spin (15-1), #13 Ruiva (12-1)
This is the most formful race on the Breeders’ Cup card. The average winner has paid $11.86, and only 13 per cent of runnings have gone to a 10-1 shot. Don’t get cute. Libertango (3) is the most likely winner at 5-2. George Boughey’s filly beat Sun Goddess at Royal Ascot, then ran second to her in the Group 1 Cheveley Park. The worries are real at 5-2. She tends to start slowly, she has never raced shorter than six furlongs or around a turn, and Flavien Prat is aboard only because her regular jockey couldn’t make the weight. Europeans fill nine of the 12 stalls, and they have taken two of the three trifecta spots in each of the last four years. Brickyard Belle (4), unbeaten in two starts and winner of the Matron, is the best of the Americans and the top pick of 1/ST’s Bailey Armour. The overlay is Final Objective (9) at 8-1. He won the Flying Childers at Doncaster last out. That race produced the 2023 winner, Big Evs, who won it, and the 2024 winner, Magnum Force, who ran third in it. James Doyle rides. Moonrise (1) at 12-1 drew the rail and gets Oisin Murphy. Mussab (5) at 15-1 set a juvenile course record winning the Cornwallis, the race that produced last year’s second and third. Good to Be King has been scratched, and Ruiva (13) draws in off the also-eligible list. Use the Europeans underneath and keep the ticket tight.
Race 7: Juvenile Fillies
Friday, 3:35 p.m. ET. 1 1/16 miles, dirt.
Top picks: #10 Emphatic (9-5), #2 Domain Expansion (6-1), #4 Rum Twist (15-1), #5 Miss Monica (5-2)
Longshots and overlays: #4 Rum Twist (15-1), #2 Domain Expansion (6-1)
Speed has been king in Keeneland dirt routes this fall. Early runners won 45 per cent of them, and horses breaking from posts one to three won 47 per cent. This race also finishes at the sixteenth pole, and the pacesetter has gone wire to wire in seven of the last 14 runnings. Emphatic (10) is still the most likely winner at 9-5. She is 3-for-3 and wired Keeneland’s Alcibiades, the prep that produced Keeneland winner Wonder Wheel in 2022. But she drew post 10, and Horse Racing Nation’s Padraic Manocchio doubts she’ll be left alone up front again. Bob Baffert’s Miss Monica (5) won the Del Mar Debutante in a romp and is 5-2. The draw upgrades two fillies inside. Domain Expansion (2), the 14-1 Oak Leaf winner, can save ground the whole way. The overlay is Rum Twist (4) at 15-1. She ran second in the Frizette, the race that has produced 15 Juvenile Fillies winners. Vequist won here in 2020 off a second in the Frizette. Todd Pletcher is 0-for-20 in this race and Kenny McPeek is 0-for-16. Toss Pletcher’s Badittude and Life Changing.
Race 8: Juvenile Fillies Turf
Friday, 4:15 p.m. ET. One mile, turf.
Top picks: #9 Sun Goddess (6-5), #10 Amusingly (7-2), #1 Green Empress (10-1), #6 Alwaysanangel (15-1)
Longshots and overlays: #10 Amusingly (7-2), #6 Alwaysanangel (15-1), #3 Curracloe (12-1)
Sun Goddess (9) is the most likely winner, and she will be one of the shortest prices of the weekend at 6-5. Aidan O’Brien’s filly has won six of eight, including the Group 1 Phoenix, Moyglare and Cheveley Park. She has never raced a mile, but she has beaten colts twice and set a juvenile course record in the Cheveley Park, and O’Brien says she is built like a three-year-old. Her loss to Libertango came with a minor foot problem. She is the right favourite. The overlay is Amusingly (10) at 7-2. Francis Graffard’s filly beat the colts in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère. Colin Keane rides, and 1/ST’s Ashley Mailloux picks her on top. Green Empress (1) won the Boussac at a mile despite being caught three wide without cover. The rail is a real plus in a one-mile race with a short run to the first turn. Sun Goddess has beaten her three times, so use her underneath at 10-1. Chad Brown’s Domestic Agenda is the best American after an easy win in the Miss Grillo, but post 12 is a tough draw at this trip. Brown is 6-for-25 in this race. Alwaysanangel (6) at 15-1 finishes fast and has run like a filly who wants more ground than six furlongs. Citrus Springs has been scratched. Pass on Vanta. No California-based filly has ever finished first or second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Race 9: Juvenile
Friday, 4:55 p.m. ET. 1 1/16 miles, dirt.
Top picks: #5 Hughes (1-1), #6 American History (9-2), #3 Salahudin (6-1), #7 Coach Pope (4-1)
Longshots and overlays: #6 American History (9-2), #3 Salahudin (6-1)
Scratches have cut this field to six. Gaudreau came out with a fever, and Earth Song is also out. Hughes (5) is the most likely winner, and it isn’t close. Bob Baffert’s colt is 4-for-4 and won Santa Anita’s American Pharoah by six lengths, the race that has produced six of the last 12 Juvenile winners. Baffert is 6-for-41 in this race with seven seconds. Flavien Prat, who rides four morning-line favourites this weekend, has the call. Hughes is even money, and he should be. The real question is the second choice. All three Keeneland Juveniles went to the second choice in the wagering: Nyquist in 2015, Essential Quality in 2020 and Forte in 2022. Two of them came out of Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity. This year’s Futurity winner is Todd Pletcher’s American History (6), who caught Coach Pope (7) late after that colt fought for the early lead. At 9-2, he is the overlay and the horse to pair with the favourite. Salahudin (3) has the inside draw at 6-1. With only six starters, the trip should be clean for everyone. Bet the exacta, not against the favourite.
Race 10: Juvenile Turf
Friday, 5:35 p.m. ET. One mile, turf.
Top picks: #10 Folsom Blues (7-2), #4 Haffner (8-1), #5 How’s Al Today (3-1), #13 Agate (10-1)
Longshots and overlays: #13 Agate (10-1), #2 Avec Toi (10-1), #3 Florida Bay (20-1)
This is Aidan O’Brien’s race. He has won it four years running and eight times from 25 starters. But his top hope, Great Barrier Reef, has been scratched with a stone bruise. Man’s Best Friend and Induction are out too, and also-eligible Popcorn (15) draws in, leaving 12 runners. Haffner (4) and Folsom Blues (10) now stand out. Haffner was 8-1 on the morning line, but with his stablemate gone, expect him to go off much shorter. He won the Royal Lodge at a mile, and post 4 sits in the group that won the most turf routes at Keeneland this fall. Firm ground suits him, and Christophe Soumillon, who won this race on Gstaad last year, rides. Folsom Blues won the National Stakes by six lengths, and his only defeats this year came against Sun Goddess and Amusingly. Neither filly can run here, which makes him fair value at 7-2. How’s Al Today (5) is the 3-1 morning-line favourite and the best of the Americans, with a good draw. The overlay is Agate (13) at 10-1. He won the Bourbon over this course, and Keeneland form matters here. Florida Bay (3) at 20-1 is O’Brien’s other runner and has never been worse than fourth. Avec Toi (2) at 10-1 deserves another look. A poor draw left him stuck wide in the Lagardère, and now he adds blinkers and breaks from the inside. Europeans have won 14 of 19 runnings.
Saturday, Oct. 31: Championship Saturday
Race 4: Filly and Mare Sprint
Saturday, 1:10 p.m. ET. Seven furlongs, dirt.
Top picks: #12 Kilwin (8-1), #7 Evanescence (15-1), #11 Explora (4-1), #6 Majestic Oops (15-1)
Longshots and overlays: #12 Kilwin (8-1), #6 Majestic Oops (15-1), #9 Sweet Azteca (8-1)
The Filly and Mare Sprint has never been won wire to wire. Front-runners are 0-for-19 with three seconds and three thirds. That shapes everything. Ways and Means (2) is the 7-5 favourite for Chad Brown, who has won two of the three runnings at Keeneland. But she is 0-for-5 outside New York, and I’ll try to beat her. Kilwin (12) is the most likely winner and the overlay at 8-1. Three handicappers I respect have landed on her, including TwinSpires’ Vance Hanson and 1/ST’s Tom Quigley. Hanson thinks Keeneland, closer to her home base, can flip the result of the Ballerina. She also comes from off the pace, which is how this race is won. Evanescence (7) is Quigley’s second pick and a solid Kentucky-based alternative. Explora (11) gives Bob Baffert a live 4-1 shot, the stablemate of last year’s winner, Splendora. The longshot is Majestic Oops (6) at 15-1, a deep closer in a race full of speed, flagged by TwinSpires’ Keeler Johnson. Praying and Nooni have been scratched. Sophomores have taken a big share of the trifecta spots in the last two Keeneland runnings.
Race 5: Turf Sprint
Saturday, 1:48 p.m. ET. 5½ furlongs, turf.
Top picks: #7 Comanche Brave (3-1), #5 Time to Dazzle (20-1), #13 Starlust (20-1), #11 Joe Shiesty (10-1)
Longshots and overlays: #13 Starlust (20-1), #5 Time to Dazzle (20-1), #8 Possiblemente (12-1)
Welcome to the chaos race. Forty-four per cent of Turf Sprints have gone to a 10-1 shot or bigger, including five of the last six. Caravel paid $87.78 here in 2022. The set-up favours closers. Bacio (3), the 5-2 favourite for Wesley Ward, faces a hot pace and a half-furlong farther than he has ever run, and Horse Racing Nation’s Padraic Manocchio is against him. Closers won six of the nine turf sprints run at the Keeneland fall meet. Comanche Brave (7) is the most likely winner at 3-1. Donnacha O’Brien’s colt won the July Cup and then the Flying Five, where he was stuck behind horses before finding room late. Americans have won 16 of 18 Turf Sprints, and both American winners at Keeneland prepped at the fall meet. That points to Time to Dazzle (5) at 20-1. He has taken the Franklin here in each of the last two years, and he does his best work late. Joe Shiesty (11) at 10-1 won the Woodford. The overlay is Starlust (13) at 20-1. He won this race in 2024, returned to training in May after a poor season at stud and ran second in the Nunthorpe. The year he won this race, he had been third in that same York sprint. Spread wide here.
Race 6: Dirt Mile
Saturday, 2:26 p.m. ET. One mile, dirt.
Top picks: #1 Further Ado (2-1), #4 Chunk of Gold (8-1), #9 Forged Steel (15-1), #3 Full Serrano (10-1)
Longshots and overlays: #4 Chunk of Gold (8-1), #9 Forged Steel (15-1), #3 Full Serrano (10-1)
This is the place to save money. Favourites have won all three Dirt Miles at Keeneland: Liam’s Map, Knicks Go and Cody’s Wish. The race finishes at the sixteenth pole, and the track has been kind to inside speed. Posts one to three have won 43 of the 84 dirt miles run at Keeneland, and early runners won 45 per cent of dirt routes this fall. Further Ado (1) is the most likely winner at 2-1. He is 2-for-2 at Keeneland, including the Grade 1 Blue Grass, and he has the rail. Forget his 11th in the Kentucky Derby. Flavien Prat picks up the ride with Irad Ortiz Jr. out with a broken ankle. The new overlay is Chunk of Gold (4) at 8-1. Blinkers about a year ago turned him into a serious pace threat, and his draw fits the bias. Forged Steel (9) is 15-1 on the morning line but was 6-1 with British bookmaker bet365 earlier in the week. Full Serrano (3), the 2024 winner, is 10-1 and the price play of 1/ST’s Jeremy Plonk. Iron Man Cal (11) and Owen Almighty (10) are drawn where horses rarely win dirt miles here.
Race 7: Filly and Mare Turf
Saturday, 3:04 p.m. ET. 1 3/16 miles, turf.
Top picks: #11 Precise (7-2), #12 Blue Bolt (5-2), #5 Kathynmarissa (5-1), #4 Red Letter (12-1)
Longshots and overlays: #1 Gimme A Nother (10-1), #13 Lush Lips (12-1), #3 Classic Q (20-1), #8 Jancis (20-1)
Favourites are 2-for-20 in this race, but five of the last 11 finished second. Blue Bolt (12) is the 5-2 favourite. The four-year-old is 6-for-6 this year with four Group 1 wins, all of them at a mile, and she can get keen if the early pace is slow. This is 1 3/16 miles from post 12. I’ll use her second. Precise (11) is the most likely winner and the value at 7-2. She won the Irish 1,000 Guineas and the Coronation, then ran second in the Prix de l’Opéra. Both European winners of this race at Keeneland, Audarya and Tuesday, came out of the Opéra. Ryan Moore rides. Kathynmarissa (5) won the Diana and the Flower Bowl for Chad Brown, who is 4-for-32 here with five seconds. The overlays run deep. A Woodbine-prepped runner has hit the trifecta four years running. That points to Jancis (8) at 20-1, third in the E.P. Taylor, and Gimme A Nother (1) at 10-1, who won it. Jancis dislikes being crowded, though, and this tighter course could test her. A Keeneland-prepped runner has been in all three superfectas here. That’s Classic Q (3) at 20-1 and Lush Lips (13) at 12-1, one-two in the First Lady. Red Letter (4) at 12-1 has run well in defeat all season and may suit the way American races unfold. Toss Thought Process. California preppers are 0-for-60.
Race 8: Sprint
Saturday, 3:42 p.m. ET. Six furlongs, dirt.
Top picks: #13 Englishman (4-5), #9 Nakatomi (12-1), #11 T O Elvis (7-2), #3 Liam Smith (20-1)
Longshots and overlays: #9 Nakatomi (12-1), #3 Liam Smith (20-1), #4 Hymn (15-1)
Englishman (13) is the most likely winner and the worst bet on the card at 4-5. Cherie DeVaux’s colt won the Woody Stephens and the Jerkens by an average of six lengths. But he has never faced older horses, and no 3-year-old has won the Sprint since 2016. Don’t knock him for post 13. Outside posts were the best group in Keeneland dirt sprints this fall, winning 41 per cent. Sprint favourites have been 8-5 or shorter in nine of the last 10 years and won only twice. T O Elvis (11) is the 7-2 alternative. The Japanese sprinter beat a strong American field on Kentucky Derby Day, but he hasn’t run since. That’s six months. 1/ST’s Barry Spears picks him on top anyway. He is 5-for-5 at six furlongs on dirt, he rallies from behind, and Englishman’s speed should give him the quick early fractions he likes. The overlay is Nakatomi (9) at 12-1. He won Keeneland’s Phoenix, the race that produced Sprint winners Runhappy in 2015 and Whitmore in 2020. Liam Smith (3) at 20-1 has early speed, and Keeler Johnson thinks he can take them all the way. Hymn (4), the Forego winner, has a new rider in Rafael Bejarano. A 20-1 shot has run second or third in each of the last five Sprints. Put one underneath.
Race 9: Mile
Saturday, 4:20 p.m. ET. One mile, turf.
Top picks: #8 Notable Speech (7-5), #2 Lake Forest (6-1), #3 Facteur Cheval (30-1), #1 Deterministic (8-1)
Longshots and overlays: #3 Facteur Cheval (30-1), #9 Rhetorical (8-1)
Notable Speech (8) is the most likely winner at 7-5. Charlie Appleby’s horse is the defending champion, and he beat Deterministic, the top American turf horse, in the Woodbine Mile. Appleby is 4-for-5 in this race, and Europeans have won six of the last seven Miles. His one blot is a troubled fourth over this course in the Maker’s Mark Mile in April. The draw matters here. The run to the first turn is short, and inside posts help. Deterministic (1) and Lake Forest (2) drew well. True Love (12) and Puerto Rico (14) did not, and Aidan O’Brien is 1-for-30 in this race. Rhetorical (9) at 8-1 is still the course specialist. He has won Keeneland’s Turf Mile two years running over this exact course and distance. But he’s a front-runner who just lost his regular rider, Irad Ortiz Jr., to a broken ankle. Jose Ortiz takes over. Pace is the bigger story. Deterministic set the fractions when Notable Speech ran him down at Woodbine, and Rhetorical, Qirat and Puerto Rico all like to be forward too. Expect a fast early tempo that favours the horses coming from behind. Lake Forest (2) closes, and he already ran second over this course in the Coolmore Turf Mile. The overlay is Facteur Cheval (3) at 30-1. The 2024 Dubai Turf winner has turned his form around since joining Mark Casse’s barn, and his first start for Casse was a quick-clocking allowance win over this track. Zulu Kingdom has been scratched. Four of the last five winners went off at 3-1 or less.
Race 10: Distaff
Saturday, 4:58 p.m. ET. 1⅛ miles, dirt.
Top picks: #4 Fully Subscribed (8-5), #2 Nitrogen (6-5), #6 Measure (20-1), #1 Immersive (30-1)
Longshots and overlays: #6 Measure (20-1), #1 Immersive (30-1), #3 Regaled (20-1)
Two scratches have cut the Distaff to seven. Splendora, the 9-2 third choice, is out on veterinary advice, and Scottish Lassie is also out. This race rarely produces a longshot winner. Only one in the last 19 went off at 10-1 or more. So the question is which favourite. Nitrogen (2) is 6-5 and has never finished out of the top three in 18 starts. But history is against her. Only twice has the previous year’s runner-up come back to win, the last time 40 years ago. And the early leader has finished out of the money in all three Keeneland Distaffs. Fully Subscribed (4) is the most likely winner at 8-5. She won the Spinster, which has produced 14 Distaff winners, including three of the last four. 1/ST’s Scott Shapiro has her on top, and Flavien Prat rides. Yes, Chad Brown is 0-for-11 in this race. The Spinster trend is stronger. Both favourites drew inside, on a track where posts one to three won 47 per cent of dirt routes this fall. The overlay is underneath. The last two Keeneland Distaffs had 24-1 and 25-1 shots in the trifecta, and Shapiro picks Measure (6) second at 20-1. Immersive (1) at 30-1 has the rail for Brad Cox, who is 3-for-5 in this race.
Race 11: Turf
Saturday, 5:36 p.m. ET. 1½ miles, turf.
Top picks: #12 Diamond Necklace (3-1), #2 Benvenuto Cellini (6-1), #10 Tiffany (10-1), #9 Johanna Walsh (12-1)
Longshots and overlays: #10 Tiffany (10-1), #9 Johanna Walsh (12-1), #11 Survie (15-1), #1 Ethical Diamond (10-1)
Europeans own this race at Keeneland. They have filled all six exacta spots and eight of 12 superfecta spots. Diamond Necklace (12) is the most likely winner at 3-1. She drew the widest stall in the Arc, was trapped three wide and still finished third. That is the best losing race in the field. Ryan Moore chose Benvenuto Cellini (2) instead. That colt missed the break in the Arc and still finished his last quarter-mile faster than all but two horses. He also lost at 2-5 in the Prix Niel, but firm ground and a left-handed track should help him at 6-1. The course has favoured stalkers this fall, and horses from posts four to six won the most turf routes. The overlay is Tiffany (10) at 10-1. Sir Mark Prescott’s mare beat Ethical Diamond and the favoured Burnham Square at Kentucky Downs, and she races close to the pace. Vance Hanson of TwinSpires and Steve Ryder of Oddschecker both tip her. The second overlay is Johanna Walsh (9) at 12-1. The Irish Oaks winner ran a fast time on quick ground, and her poor Yorkshire Oaks came on softer going behind a runaway pacemaker. Survie (11) at 15-1 is worth using too. Throw out her 10th in the Vermeille, because her saddle slipped. Bay City Roller (13) was second in the Arc, but his biggest wins came on soft ground, his trainer has steered him away from very fast going in the past, and this is his third race in four weeks. Map of Stars, who drew in when Test Score defected, is a quirky but talented closer for Francis-Henri Graffard. Burnham Square (6) is the only American worth using.
Race 12: Classic
Saturday, 6:16 p.m. ET. 1¼ miles, dirt.
Top picks: #5 Forever Young (2-1), #7 Knightsbridge (9-2), #2 Sovereignty (5-2), #3 Golden Tempo (5-1)
Longshots and overlays: #7 Knightsbridge (9-2), #3 Golden Tempo (5-1)
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The Classic changed Thursday. Magnitude was scratched on veterinary advice and retired, leaving seven runners. He was supposed to make the running. Now Knightsbridge (7) looks like the only real speed, and that matters on this track. Early runners won 45 per cent of Keeneland dirt routes this fall. Closers won just 19 per cent. Knightsbridge won the Pacific Classic by 6¼ lengths for Bill Mott and is the overlay at 9-2. The one knock is his rider. Luis Saez is just 1-for-75 at the Breeders’ Cup. Forever Young (5) is the most likely winner at 2-1. The Japanese star won this race last year, won the Jockey Club Gold Cup last out and has never finished worse than third in 16 starts. His trainer rated him about 80 per cent fit for that prep, so there should be more to come. Sovereignty (2), last year’s Horse of the Year, is 5-2 off a 12-week break after a hoof abscess. He is 3-for-3 at 1¼ miles, but he has been winning from off the pace and now needs someone to soften up Knightsbridge. Golden Tempo (3), the Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner, trains at Keeneland and is 5-1. A 3-year-old has been in every Classic superfecta since 2018. Only one Classic winner in 15 years paid double digits.
