Atlanta Braves vs. LA Dodgers NLCS Game 5 Pick

by | Oct 21, 2021 | mlb

Atlanta Braves (94-75) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (111-61)

When: 8:10 p.m., Thursday, October 21

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Moneyline: ATL +135/LAD -145 (Bovada - Check out their awesome live betting! Unlike most books, they seemingly always have a line, where other books only post lines during commercial breaks!)

Runline: Braves +1.5/Dodgers -1.5

Total: 8

Starting Pitchers: Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs. TBD

For the Jugular

Atlanta’s not taking any chances in this one. The Braves have been here before, as they led the NLCS 3-1 before watching the Dodgers come back with three straight wins to claim the pennant and eventually roll into the World Series. This time, the Braves do have one edge on their side, as they’ve got the home-field advantage for Games 6 and 7, but they’re hoping that won’t come into play as they try to end this thing in five games.

This time, Atlanta has a much better shot to end the series before bringing up the ghosts of 2020, as the Braves have their rotation set up the way they want it for the rest of the series. While the Dodgers have been trying to get by with a patchwork pitching staff based on three outstanding starters and little else, the Braves have a deeper pitching staff and will send out Max Fried, Ian Anderson, and Charlie Morton in order over the rest of the series. The Dodgers simply don’t have enough arms to match that at this point in the series, as there’s a good chance that they’re going to have to burn through Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer, or Julio Urias in relief somewhere in the next three games just to give themselves a shot for the next game.

Guessing Game

Playing the guessing game worked out for the Dodgers in the NLDS, but this is a trickier beast because the Dodgers burned the bullpen game in the series opener, hoping that they’d get one out of two in Atlanta and get the job done when they came back to Los Angeles. But not only did the Dodgers not do the job in Georgia, but they lost to Atlanta’s bullpen game in Game 4 at home, putting them squarely behind the eight-ball for the rest of the series.
The Dodgers have a couple of options here, as they could either go with Tony Gonsolin for as long as possible, bring Scherzer in on short rest or try another bullpen game and hope that they get the result they didn’t get against Fried in Game 1. It’s not a series of great choices, but they have already gotten through this situation once before. Whether they can do it again will be determined by how well the bats can get to Fried.

Two Run Limit

Here’s why the Dodgers aren’t getting the job done in this series to date: they’re not scoring off Atlanta’s starters. The Dodgers are at their best when they’re putting up a good amount of runs and forcing the opponent to press, but they have gotten just two runs in the first five innings in every game they’ve played in this series. Here’s how much the Dodgers have struggled in this series against the Atlanta starters: if you’d taken Braves +0.5 in the first five innings of every game of this series, you’d be four-for-four on your bets.

The Dodgers hit Fried just fine in Game 1, but they were incredibly wasteful with their chances and ended up scoring just two runs on ten hits. For Los Angeles to pull off this comeback, the Dodgers have to cash in on their opportunities.

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Betting Trends

  • The Braves are 6-1 in their past seven against the NL West.
  • The Braves are 4-1 in their past five as an underdog.
  • The Dodgers are 46-16 in their past 62 games overall.
  • The Dodgers are 41-14 in their past 55 home games.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Braves’ past five games overall.
  • The under is 5-2 in the Braves’ past seven playoff games as an underdog.
  • The over is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ past four games after a loss.
  • The over is 8-2 in the Dodgers’ past ten home games.
  • The Braves are 17-35 in the past 52 meetings in Los Angeles.
  • The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.

Weather Report

It’ll be a nice day for baseball, with 75-degree temperatures and partly cloudy skies in Southern California. The wind will blow toward right field at seven miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

The Dodgers have been here before, but I can’t go against Fried when he’s on form, and the Dodgers are opposing him with either a bullpen game or a pitcher they clearly don’t want to use. I’m not laying the juice with a guessing game against a hungry team that wants to finish the job and make sure its next game played in Atlanta is a World Series contest. Give me the Braves here. Bet your MLB playoffs picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100 at registration). Click here to get your free bets now!