LA Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions 10/21/22

by | Oct 21, 2021 | nba

Los Angeles Clippers (0-0 SU, 0-0-0 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors(1-0 SU, 1-0-0 ATS)

When: Thursday, October 21st, 2021, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, California

TV: TNT DirectTV (245)

Point Spread: LAC(+2.5)/GSW(-2.5) (Opened at GSW -3)

Total: 226 (Opened at 225.5)

Money Line: Warriors -167, Clippers +140

Power Rating: Warriors -4

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Probable Starting Lineups

Los Angeles Clippers: PG Reggie Jackson, SG Eric Bledsoe, SF Paul George, PF Marcus Morris Sr., C Ivica Zubac

Golden State Warriors: PG Steph Curry, SG Jordan Poole, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Clippers: Nicolas Batum (Out), Serge Ibaka (Out), Kawhi Leonard (Out)

Golden State Warriors: James Wiseman (Out), Klay Thompson (Out)

Recent Form

In their season opener, the Golden State Warriors defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 121-114. This was an impressive way to start the year, as they entered the game as road underdogs.

Golden State was led by Steph Curry’s 21 points, ten rebounds, ten assist night. Although it wasn’t the top-end scoring performance we have come to expect, the Warriors will gladly take a triple-double from their point guard.

Aside from Curry, the team received excellent production from Jordan Poole (20 points) and Nemanja Bjelica (15 points).

Although it is too early to read into a team’s rotation, I was expecting to see more from Otto Porter Jr, who played just 12 minutes. This could change as Andrew Wiggins managed just 12 points in 26 minutes.

The Warriors should be encouraged that they were able to pull off the victory without a great shooting performance. For the game, the team shot just 44% from the field and 35% from beyond the arc

The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a season where they finished 47-25, 4th in the Western Conference. Ultimately their season came to an end in last year’s conference finals.

In the series, Los Angeles fell behind 2-0 before taking it to a game 6. In the end, not having their best player Kawhi Leonard, proved to be too much of a hurdle to overcome.

This season, they will again be without Leonard, who suffered a partial tear in his ACL. The hope is that the all-star small forward will make his return in time for the playoffs.

This off-season, the Los Angeles front office opted to keep the team mainly intact. They did, however, ship off long-time Clipper Patrick Beverly in a deal with the Grizzlies.

Beverly was relied upon for his energy and defense. To fill this hole, the team reunited with point guard Eric Bledsoe, who brings similar attributes to the table

The team’s primary playmakers will once again be Paul George and Reggie Jackson. Last season, George led the team with 23.3 points per game.

Players such as Ivica Zubac, Serge Ibaka, Marcus Morris Sr., and Luke Kennard round out a roster as deep as any in the league.

Clippers Control The Game Flow

The Golden State Warriors love to get up and down the court, ranking 3rd in the NBA in possessions per game. However, last season the Clippers made a habit of disrupting the flow of fast-paced teams. In these contests, LA’s opponents averaged four fewer possessions per game.

Last year, the Clippers preferred to slow the game down. In games vs. slow-paced teams, the Warriors won just 50% of the time. However, when LA faced off against fast-paced units, they won 66% of their games.

Will The Clippers Defense Show Up?

Even though the Los Angeles Clippers averaged fewer possessions than the Warriors, they were the more efficient offensive unit. Last season, they scored 115 points per 100 possession, 2nd in the NBA. Despite featuring one of the league’s most prolific scorers, the Warriors were an average team in terms of offensive efficiency.

 

Against top offensive teams, the Warriors struggled to pull out wins. High-powered offenses averaged three points above normal against Golden State. In these matchups, the Warriors won just 41% of their games.

For being one of the league’s top defensive units, the Clippers tended to ease off the gas against average offenses. Against such teams, they allowed four points above the league average scoring output.

Luckily, this didn’t hurt them in the win column as they won 65% of their games, with an average spread of 5 points.

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The Clippers Don’t Care About Rankings

Last year, the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers were both among the NBA’s best defensive teams, ranking 5th and 8th, respectively.

In matchups against teams also in the top ten defensively, the Clippers showed no fear, averaging 10 points above the league average. This production helped them win 65% of their games against defensive-minded teams.

The Warriors were also able to score at a slightly above average rate vs. good defenses. However, they had an average scoring margin of -6 on their way to winning .48% of the matchups.

The Historicals

In the 2020-2021 season, these two teams met up in three games. The season series ended in favor of the Clippers (2-1). Between the contests, Los Angeles outscored the Warriors 343-320. Most of this differential came in the final game, where Los Angeles won 130-104.

How the Public is Betting the Clippers vs. Warriors

81% are betting the Warriors against the spread.

81% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 226.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Over is 9-4 when these two teams meet up in Golden State
  • The Over is 16-7 in their last 23 matchups
  • Los Angeles is 5-1 against the spread in Golden State.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Earlier in the week, I recommended taking Golden State to cover the spread vs. the Lakers. This started off the NBA season on the right foot. I am betting against the Warriors in this game and am taking LA to cover the +2.5 point spread.

My model shows this game ending with a Clippers victory 114-111.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

In this game, I will again take Andrew Wiggins to go under his total of 15.5. The Clippers have capable defenders on the wing, and Wiggins is an extremely inefficient scorer as is.

For Los Angeles, I expect Ivica Zubac to have a big game down low. I recommend taking him to go over his point total line of 9.5. A great online sportsbook offering multiple prop bets on every game is Bovada Sportsbook. They’ll also give you a 50% bonus and your credit card WILL work there for deposits! Click here to check them out! (Awesome live betting too!)