Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Pick

Atlanta Braves (93-74) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (110-60)
When: 5:10 p.m., Tuesday, October 19
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Moneyline: ATL +155/LAD -175 (BetNow)
Runline: Braves +1.5/Dodgers -1.5
Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) vs. Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP)

Save the Series

There’s no doubting it now: the Dodgers have to come up big in Game 3, and that means Walker Buehler has to come up big. So far, Buehler has done what he needed to do to keep the Dodgers in good shape, as he stepped up on short rest to shut down the Giants and force a fifth game after losing a tough one in the NLDS opener. Buehler has been at his best at home, as he’s 11-2 with a 2.05 ERA on the year at Dodger Stadium. He’s also been almost unhittable in the playoffs in past years, registering a 0.71 ERA in 2019 and a 1.80 ERA in 2020. Buehler is no stranger to pitching in big games, and facing off with Atlanta again should give him some confidence that he can get the job done here. If he can’t get it done, the Dodgers’ deficit will become almost impossible to overcome.

Road Warrior?

Charlie Morton has had success in the playoffs, but lately, he hasn’t seen much success away from Truist Park. The Braves have won three straight with Morton on the mound in Atlanta, but their past three trips away from Atlanta with him on the hill have seen the Braves go down to defeat. Morton was the losing pitcher in two of those three contests, although blaming him would be unfair as he held the Brewers and the Giants to just two runs each in each of those contests. For the year, Morton actually does have a better record away from Truist Park than he does at home, going 8-3 on the road with a 3.06 ERA compared to a 6-3 mark with a 3.61 ERA. The big question will be whether the Braves’ bats will get the job done for him, as Atlanta hasn’t hit well at all away from home. The last time the Braves were in southern California, Morton held the Dodgers to just three hits, but the Braves lost the game anyway because Atlanta only managed two runs and couldn’t make Morton’s performance stand up.

Late Arriving Crowd

This could be a weird situation for the Dodgers, as they’ve got the early game for some reason despite playing in Southern California. The Dodgers usually don’t play day games on any day except Sunday and Thursday, but they’ve been drawn into this situation because of television, which could leave them with a half-empty Dodger Stadium for the first few innings as the crowd struggles to arrive and get off work.

The Dodgers were able to play without fans last year and still came back against the Braves, but they’re in a different situation this time around. This time, there’s travel involved, and the Braves have a genuine home field advantage for the games played in Atlanta. If the fans aren’t there yet, the Dodgers will need to count on their past experiences to get the job done.

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Betting Trends

• The Braves have won five straight playoff games.
• The Braves are 20-6 in their past 26 games against a right-hander.
• The Dodgers are 10-4 in their past 14 playoff games as a favorite.
• The Dodgers are 27-11 in their past 38 against the NL East.
• The under is 4-0 in the Braves’ past four as a road dog.
• The under is 10-3-2 in the Braves’ past 15 Tuesday games.
• The under is 14-3-1 in the Dodgers’ past 18 Tuesday games.
• The over is 6-2 in the Dodgers’ past eight home games.
• The Braves are 18-40 in the past 58 matchups with the Dodgers.
• The under is 5-0 in the past five meetings in Los Angeles.

Weather Report

The wind might not be strong enough to play a role here, as it’ll only blow at six miles per hour to dead center. Temperatures will rise into the mid-70s at the first pitch, with the game-time temperature sitting at 73.

Dan’s pick

Buehler has been outstanding this season, and Morton hasn’t really shown that he can get the job done in this situation on the road, as his team’s offense keeps letting him down when it matters most. The Dodgers are the more desperate team and need to get a win here to stay in this series, so I will back them to do exactly that here.