Bet the Runline: Mets vs Reds 7/6/22

by | Jul 6, 2022 | mlb

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Wednesday, July 6th, 06:40 ET

Location: Great American Ball Park

TV: Bally Sports Ohio

Money Line: Mets -163 / Reds +137 (WagerWeb - Biggest football teasers on the web!)

Total Line: 9.5

STARTING PITCHING

New York: David Peterson (5-1, 3.24)
Cincinnati: Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.53)

Mets Projected Lineup

Mark Canha LF
Dominic Smith 1B
Jeff McNeil 2B
Starling Marte RF
Eduardo Escobar 3B
James McCann C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
David Peterson P

Reds Projected Lineup

Albert Almora Jr. RF
Matt Reynolds SS
Nick Senzel CF
Mike Moustakas 1B
Brandon Drury 1B
Aramis Garcia C
Tommy Pham LF
Joey Votto 1B
Jonathan India 2B
Graham Ashcraft P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

New York Mets: 50-31-0 SU / OU 41-34-6 / Run Line W/L 44-37-0
Cincinnati Reds: 28-52-0 SU / OU 44-35-1 / Run Line W/L 35-45-0

The Cincinnati Reds host the New York Mets on Wednesday, July 6th at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-163), with an OU line set at 9.5.

Recent Form

After suffering a 1 run loss to the Reds (1-0), the Mets will look to get back in the win column. Even in the loss, the pitching staff gave up just 1 run while allowing 4 hits. With their 6 hits, the Mets couldn’t muster any runs. This defeat came despite being favored at -220.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 60 of their games, winning at a rate of 68.0%. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 9.0 runs. Even after this game, New York’s overall over-under record sits at 41-34-6.

The Mets come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +2. New York comes into the game struggling on offense, averaging 3.6 runs per game over their last 5. This figure is down from their season average of 4.74. So far, New York has won over half of their 26 series played, going 18-5-3.

The Reds will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Mets by a score of 1-0. For the game, the pitching staff held the Mets scoreless on 6 hits. With their 4 hits, the Reds could only muster 1 runs. Despite being the underdogs, getting 190.0 on the moneyline, the Reds still picked up the win. In their 60 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 35.0%. Combined, the Reds and Mets run total fell below the over-under line of 9.0 runs. Cincinnati still has an above .500 over-under record at (44-35-1).

The Reds come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -12 over their last 5 games. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 2.2 runs over their last 5 game. Cincinnati has a below .500 series record of just 6-14-6.

Pitching Matchup

David Peterson gets the start for the Mets, with an overall record of 5-1. Currently, Peterson has an ERA of just 3.24 while pitching an average of 4.84 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.225 against him. Peterson is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.93 per 9 innings. Per game, David Peterson is averaging 5.0, on a strikeout percentage of 25.0%. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Peterson is averaging 3.39 free passes per outing.

Cincinnati will roll with Graham Ashcraft (4-2) as their starter. Ashcraft gets the start with an ERA of 4.53. On average, he has lasted 5.4 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.256. So far, Ashcraft has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 1.04 home runs per 9 innings. Ashcraft is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.5 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 15.0%. Throughout the season, Ashcraft has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.85 per contest.

New York vs Cincinnati History

Today’s matchup between the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds will be their 3rd meeting of the season. So far, the teams have each won 1 time. Through 2 games, the series’ over-under record is 1-1, with the average run total sitting at 10.83 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.0 runs. Last year, the team’s split the season series at 3-3. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 1-3, with the average run total being 10.83 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.83 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • NY Mets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
  • NY Mets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cincinnati’s last 13 games

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Heading into Wednesday’s National League matchup between New York and Cincinnati, the Mets are the favorite to bounce back from yesterday’s loss. New York starter David Peterson has been solid throughout the season, giving up no more than 4 runs in a single start. Because I expect the Mets bats to wake up vs Graham Ashcraft, I like New York on the run line.

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