Cardinals vs Braves Odds & Predictions 7/6/22

by | Jul 6, 2022 | mlb

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Wednesday, July 6th, 07:20 ET

Location: Truist Park

TV: ESPN

Money Line: Cardinals 153 / Braves -185 (Get better lines at BAS >>> Betting prices too!)

Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

St. Louis: Miles Mikolas (5-6, 2.61)
Atlanta: Max Fried (8-2, 2.66)

Cardinals Projected Lineup

Brendan Donovan RF
Edmundo Sosa SS
Juan Yepez LF
Albert Pujols 1B
Nolan Arenado 3B
Andrew Knizner C
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Tommy Edman 2B
Dylan Carlson CF
Miles Mikolas P

Braves Projected Lineup

Adam Duvall CF
Orlando Arcia 2B
Travis d’Arnaud C
Marcell Ozuna LF
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Austin Riley 3B
Michael Harris II CF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Max Fried P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

St. Louis Cardinals: 44-39-0 SU / OU 40-39-4 / Run Line W/L 45-38-0
Atlanta Braves: 48-34-0 SU / OU 41-38-3 / Run Line W/L 43-39-0

The Atlanta Braves host the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday, July 6th at Truist Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:20 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-185), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Cardinals come into this matchup having suffered a 6-run loss to the Braves (7-1). In the loss, St. Louis’s pitchers gave up 7 runs on 12 hits. The Cardinals ended the game with just 1 run on 9 hits. The loss came as St. Louis was the betting underdog, getting 130.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 9.5 runs. However, for the season, St. Louis still has an overall over-under record of 40-39-4.

After their 5 most recent games, the Cardinals have gone just 1-4. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -14. On offense, St. Louis’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 2.8 runs per game over their last 5 contests. So far, St. Louis has won over half of their 26 series played, going 12-8-6.

The Atlanta Braves will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated the Cardinals by 6 runs (7-1). In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 1 run on 9 hits. Offensively, they finished with 7 runs on 12 hits. In the game, Atlanta was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -140.0. So far, the team has won 66.0% of the games in which they were favored. Combined, the Braves and Cardinals’ run total fell below the over-under line of 9.5 runs. Even still, Atlanta games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 41-38-3.

Across their last 5 contests, the Braves are above .500, going 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +19 (last 5). Compared to their season average, the Braves come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 5.8 runs per game. On the season, Atlanta has won more than half of their series, going 12-9-5.

Pitching Matchup

St. Louis will roll with Miles Mikolas (5-6) as their starter. Currently, Mikolas has an ERA of just 2.61 while pitching an average of 6.25 innings per outing. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.211. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.81 home runs allowed per 9 innings. On the season, Miles Mikolas has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. This includes a per game average of 4.94 K’s per game. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Mikolas is averaging 1.89 free passes per outing.

Atlanta will roll with Max Fried (8-2) as their starter. In his previous outings, Fried has lasted an average of 6.32 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.66. Across his previous appearances, the right-hander has a batting average allowed of 0.232. So far, Fried has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.53 home runs per 9 innings. On the season, Max Fried has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 24.0%. This has led to an average of 6.0 K’s per game. Throughout the season, Fried has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.42 per contest.

St. Louis vs Atlanta History

For the season, the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves will be playing their 3rd game of the season. Atlanta holds the edge in the series at 2-0. Through 2 games, the series’ over-under record is 0-2, with the average run total sitting at 7.86 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.5 runs. Atlanta won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 6 wins to 1. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 4-3, with the average run total being 7.86 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.71 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis’s last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of St. Louis’s last 20 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
  • Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games at home

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves Prediction

Heading into Wednesday’s National League matchup between St. Louis and Atlanta, the over-under total is set at 8.5 runs. However, I recommend taking the under in what should turn out to be a pitcher’s duel. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas comes into the game with a WHIP of just .99, while Max Fried has given up just 4 runs across his last 20 1/3 innings.

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