Bet the Runline: Orioles vs. Astros 8/27/22

by | Last updated Aug 27, 2022 | mlb

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros
Date: Saturday August 27th, 07:10 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: ATT SportsNet-SW
Money Line: Orioles +153 / Astros -185
Total Line: 8.0


Baltimore: Dean Kremer (5-4, 3.45)
Houston: Jose Urquidy (12-4, 3.63)

Orioles Projected Lineup

Rougned Odor 2B
Ramon Urias 3B
Austin Hays LF
Anthony Santander RF
Terrin Vavra 2B
Jorge Mateo SS
Adley Rutschman C
Ryan Mountcastle 1B
Cedric Mullins CF
Dean Kremer P

Astros Projected Lineup

Jeremy Peña SS
Chas McCormick CF
Kyle Tucker RF
Trey Mancini LF
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Jose Urquidy P


Baltimore Orioles: 66-59-0 SU / OU 57-62-5 / Run Line W/L 81-43-0
Houston Astros: 81-46-0 SU / OU 48-72-6 / Run Line W/L 67-59-0

The Houston Astros host the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, August 27th at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-185), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Baltimore Orioles will look to add another win to their resume after pulling out a slim 2-0 win over the Astros. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 0 runs on 4 hits. The Orioles lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 7 hits, leading to 4 runs. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 165.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Orioles and Astros fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.0 runs. So far, Baltimore has been a good candidate to fall below the betting line, as their over-under record sits at just 57-62-5.

The Orioles are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +5. In their last 5 contests, Baltimore is averaging 3.8 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.29. So far, Baltimore has won over half of their 41 series played, going 20-17-4.

Houston is coming off a 3 run loss to the Orioles (2-0). In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Orioles to 2 runs and 7 hits. Offensively, they finished with 6 runs on 4 hits. In the game, Houston was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -200.0. So far, the team has won 67.0% of the games in which they were favored. The Astros and Orioles fell below the run total of 8.0 runs. On the season, the team has an over-under record of just 48-72-6.

In their last 5 games, the Astros have put together a record of 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +6 (last 5). Houston is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.0 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.60. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 25-12-4.

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Pitching Matchup

Baltimore will roll with Dean Kremer (5-4) as their starter. To date, Kremer has an ERA of 3.45 while lasting an average of 5.37 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.279. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Kremer, as he is allowing just 0.84 per 9 innings. Per game, Dean Kremer is averaging 4.21, on a strikeout percentage of 19.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.14 walks per contest.

Jose Urquidy gets the start for the Astros, with an overall record of 12-4. To date, Urquidy has an ERA of 3.63 while lasting an average of 5.83 innings per appearance. Urquidy comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.243. Home runs have been an issue for Urquidy, as he is allowing an average of 1.41 per 9 innings pitched. Overall, Jose Urquidy has struck out 19.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 4.52 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 1.88 walks per outing.

Baltimore vs Houston History

Today’s matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros will be their 2nd meeting of the season, with the Orioles leading 1-0. Last year, Baltimore and Houston each won 3 games, as they split the series. The average scoring margin in these games was 6.33, with an over under record of 4-2. Last year, the two teams combined to average 11.33 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
  • Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
  • Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros Prediction

Even though the Orioles are coming off a big win over Houston in last night’s game, it is the Astros who are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. A big reason for these odds is the fact that Houston is 5-1 in Jose Urquidy’s last 6 outings. I expect this trend to continue as the Astros cover the runline.

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