Bet the Runline: Pirates vs. Rays 6/26/22

by | Last updated Jun 26, 2022 | mlb

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays
Date: Sunday, June 26th, 01:40 ET
Location: Tropicana Field
TV: Bally Sports Sun
Money Line: Pirates +165 / Rays -200 Find Dimeline Sportsbooks)
Total Line: 6.5


Pittsburgh: Roansy Contreras (2-1, 2.89) Tampa Bay: Shane McClanahan (7-3, 1.81)

Pirates Projected Lineup

Yu Chang 2B Oneil Cruz SS Diego Castillo 2B Jack Suwinski LF Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B Tyler Heineman C Michael Chavis 1B Daniel Vogelbach 1B Bryan Reynolds CF Roansy Contreras P

Rays Projected Lineup

Vidal Brujan RF Josh Lowe CF Harold Ramirez RF Brett Phillips RF Randy Arozarena LF Yandy Díaz 3B Francisco Mejía C Ji-Man Choi 1B Taylor Walls SS Shane McClanahan P


Pittsburgh Pirates: 29-42-0 SU / OU 29-35-7 / Run Line W/L 33-38-0 Tampa Bay Rays: 39-32-0 SU / OU 31-36-4 / Run Line W/L 33-38-0

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, June 26th at Tropicana Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Tampa Bay as the favorite (-200), with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

In their last game, the Pirates suffered a 1-run loss to the Rays by a score of 6-5. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 14 hits, leading to 6 runs. Offensively, they finished with 5 runs on 8 hits. Pittsburgh’s loss came as the underdog, getting 155.0 on the moneyline. With the over-under line set at 7.0 runs, the Pirates and Rays combined to go over this total. The Pirates now have an over-under record of 29-35-7.

After their 5 most recent games, the Pirates have gone just 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -4. Compared to their overall average of 3.68 runs per game, the team’s offense is playing well. Over their last 5 contests, they have bumped this figure up to 5.6. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is just 7-13-3.

In their last game, the Rays picked up a close win over the Pirates by a score of 6-5. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 8 hits, leading to 5 runs. Offensively, they finished with 6 runs on 14 hits. Heading into action, Tampa Bay was the favorite, at -185.0. So far, the team has won 63.0% of the games in which they were favored. In terms of the over-under, the Rays and Pirates combined to surpass the line of 7.0 runs. Against the run total, Tampa Bay is just 31-36-4.

Across their last 5 contests, the Rays are above .500, going 3-2. Tampa Bay has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite their last 5 scoring margin sitting at 0. Tampa Bay has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.2 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.06. On the season, Tampa Bay has won more than half of their series, going 11-10-2.


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Pitching Matchup

Pittsburgh will roll with Roansy Contreras (2-1) as their starter. Currently, Contreras has an ERA of just 2.89 while pitching an average of 4.12 innings per outing. In his previous outings, right-hander opponents are hitting 0.236 off the right-hander. Opponents are hitting for power against Contreras, as his HR/9 figure sits at 1.21. Contreras has had trouble generating strikeouts, averaging just 4.22 K’s per game on a K rate of 24.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 3.38 walks per contest.

Tampa Bay will roll with Shane McClanahan (7-3) as their starter. Heading into the game, McClanahan has appeared in 14 contests, posting an ERA of just 1.81. On average, he pitches 6.01 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.185. Despite a strong batting average allowed, McClanahan is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 1.18 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Shane McClanahan has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 35.0%. This has led to an average of 8.07 K’s per game. McClanahan has done a good job at limiting walks, averaging just 1.71 per contest.

Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay History

For the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays will be playing their 3rd game of the season. Tampa Bay holds the edge in the series at 2-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-0. The average run total in these games is nan runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 1.0 run.

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Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
  • Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s interleague matchup between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, the Rays are the heavy favorite to pick up the win. Even though Roansy Contreras has been good for the Pirates, I don’t see the Pittsburgh offense putting up much of a fight against Shane McClanahan. I like Tampa Bay to cover the runline.

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