Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, October 15, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Dodger Stadium (FS1)
The Dodgers are -160 favorites (Brewers +135) in Game 4 of an NLCS that Milwaukee leads 3-0, and the total is 7.5 at every major book. My play is Under 7.5 (-115), and if you shop around you can find it at -109.
.442. That’s the OPS the two-time defending champions have put up against left-handed pitching this postseason, over 115 plate appearances with 33 strikeouts. That isn’t a slump. It’s a lineup that has forgotten what to do with a lefty, and tonight it faces elimination against the stingiest staff in the playoff field.
The Dodgers’ bats aren’t cold. They’re frozen solid. Los Angeles has seven runs in three NLCS games and is 2-for-16 with runners in scoring position. Shohei Ohtani is hitting .182 with no extra-base hits this October while he plays through right biceps and left knee problems, and he hasn’t homered since August 18. Will Smith has two hits all postseason. Freddie Freeman is grinding on a sore knee. Kyle Tucker is the only Dodger swinging like himself. Dave Roberts after Game 3: “We’re just not getting hits.” Max Muncy’s version isn’t printable here.
Milwaukee hasn’t named a starter, and it might not matter. As of Thursday morning, official listings still show Milwaukee’s Game 4 starter as TBD. Shane Drohan is expected to open, per SI’s Tom Verducci, with Dustin May behind him. Pat Murphy’s official update: “Yeah, there will be pitching.” I don’t sweat the mystery. If Milwaukee goes lefty with Drohan, Kyle Harrison, JoJo Romero or a rested Aaron Ashby, who hasn’t allowed a run this postseason, it runs straight into that .442. If it goes righty with May or Chad Patrick, LA’s .688 OPS against right-handers this October isn’t scaring anyone. And the relievers behind them allowed one earned run in 28.2 innings through Milwaukee’s first six playoff games.
Glasnow is the best pitcher on the field. Tyler Glasnow takes the ball on seven days’ rest, and he’s better than his 3.53 ERA looks. The numbers that strip out luck and defense have him under 3.00, and hitters batted .175 against him. The Dodgers are 7-0 in postseason games he’s pitched for them. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has one home run in 150 plate appearances against righties this postseason. Its damage has come off lefties.
No tomorrow means the Dodgers get to throw everything they have. When Glasnow exits, Roberts has every reliever available except Justin Wrobleski, who threw 32 pitches last night, and that includes Edwin Díaz. Díaz hasn’t pitched in the NLCS, and Roberts says he’ll use him. LA can line up its best arms for an inning apiece instead of handing outs to a mop-up guy.
The public is hammering the Over, and the book isn’t flinching. One tracker has 86% of bets and 88% of the money on the Over, yet the Under juice moved from -113 to -115, and Milwaukee’s team total of 3.5 is juiced to the Under at -141. That’s one source, so it’s backup, not the case. Still, nice company.
Here’s how I lose this bet. If Drohan does start, right-handed hitters are his problem: all 14 homers he allowed this year came from righties. He hasn’t pitched in 18 days, it’s his postseason debut, and Roberts can stack Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández and Smith against him. Dodger Stadium plays well above average for homers, first pitch comes in hot, dry air, and this lineup hit 204 home runs in the regular season. Two swings can wreck a 7.5. Glasnow also walked five batters in his last start, and this patient Milwaukee lineup just wore out Blake Snell, capped by Jake Bauers’ 11-pitch home run. Trevor Megill, DL Hall and Abner Uribe all pitched last night, so a tight game could land with lesser arms. And two of the three games in this series have gone over 7.5.
I’ll take my chances. Play it to -125 at 7.5, grab any 8 you see, and at 7 only bet it at even money or better.
Projected score: Dodgers 3, Brewers 2. LA scratches out just enough to see a Game 5, and the final lands two and a half runs short. A 3-2 Brewers win to finish the sweep cashes this ticket just the same.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
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