Brewers vs. Dodgers Total & ML Picks 10/2/21

by | Oct 2, 2021 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers (95-65) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (104-56)

When: 10:10 p.m., Friday, October 2

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Moneyline: MIL +130/LAD -140 (BetNow - Deposit $100 and get $100 FREE!)

Runline: Brewers +1.5/Dodgers -1.5

Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes (11-4, 2.29 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) vs. Julio Urias (19-3, 3.01 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)

Will It Matter?

The biggest question coming out of this game is whether anything will be on the line, thanks to a staggered schedule that will see the Giants game almost certainly end before the Dodgers ever take the field. Should San Francisco win, the calculations for this game could change in a big way, as one more Giants win or Dodgers loss would officially lock up the NL West for the Giants and relegate the Dodgers to the wild-card game against the Cardinals.

For Milwaukee, there’s absolutely nothing at stake. The Brewers know they’ll be opening at home against the Braves on Friday, which is both a good and a bad thing for bettors. On one hand, the Brewers don’t have any real motivation to go out and get a win, but on the other, they also don’t have any motivation to save their pitching for later in the week. Milwaukee already knows it’s going to have its best pitchers able to go on normal rest for the entirety of the NLDS, so there’s no reason to yank Burnes if he’s pitching well.

In fact, the lack of something to play for could actually work against the Dodgers more than the Brewers, because Los Angeles is the team that has to both save its pitching for Wednesday and manage its rotation so that it can get the most out of its starters. Of course, the Dodgers’ rotation is so deep that it might not matter, but if either team is affected, it’s going to be them.

Low-Scoring Victories

If you’ve been putting cash on the Dodgers and the under whenever Urias pitches, your bankroll is likely in very good shape. If you’d simply placed $10 on Dodgers moneyline and under in Urias’s past seven starts and let it ride through all seven, you’d have turned $10 into $8,781, as that parlay is 6-0-1 in that stretch (the under pushed against Arizona).

Only twice in his past 10 appearances has Urias allowed an opponent to top three runs, and one of those was the Rockies at Coors Field and the under cashed anyway in a 5-4 Dodger victory. Not only that, but Urias has been about as reliable as it gets in terms of innings pitched, going at least five innings in each of his past 10 starts.

That should mean that the Dodgers allow him to go at least five innings here, as they probably won’t want to mess with his rhythm before the postseason. It doesn’t hurt that Urias, despite his gaudy record, isn’t the man the Dodgers are counting on to get them through the wild card game. That job will either fall to Walker Buehler or Max Scherzer, depending on if the Dodgers have anything of value to chase on Sunday.

King of the K

Almost nobody saw Corbin Burnes turning into one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game after a disastrous 2019, but that’s exactly what’s happened this season. Burnes always had the power to record strikeouts, as he notched 70 strikeouts in 49 innings in 2019, but he also allowed 70 hits that season and made it appear that he’d just give up too many hits to ever be a useful strikeout pitcher.

But 2020 allowed him to get straightened out in a small sample size, and 2021 has proven that it was no fluke. Burnes is the most effective pitcher in baseball in strikeouts per nine innings, and with 230 K’s on the season, it’s not unusual to see double-digit strikeouts when he’s on the hill.

The Dodgers are a moderately patient team, so a double digit number is possible but not probable here. However, if Los Angeles has nothing to play for, you might want to bet the over on strikeouts for Burnes, because Los Angeles might simply want to get the game over with so it can start prepping for St. Louis.

More Picks: Get Keith Allen’s KC/PHI Week 4 Best Bet >>>

Betting Trends

  • The Brewers are 23-10 in their past 33 against the NL West.
  • The Brewers are 2-5 in their past seven after a loss.
  • The Dodgers are 38-13 in their past 51 home games.
  • The Dodgers are 40-12 in their past 52 as a favorite.
  • The under is 6-1 in the Brewers’ past seven as an underdog.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Brewers’ past five road games.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ past five games following a win.
  • The under is 6-2 in the Dodgers’ past eight Saturday games.
  • The Brewers have dropped four straight in Los Angeles.
  • The under is 9-4 in the past 13 meetings.

Weather Report

It’s October, but it’s still summer in Southern California, as temperatures will sit at 84 degrees at first pitch. Wind will blow at six miles per hour toward straightaway center field.

Dan’s Pick

I think the Dodgers might have their minds on St. Louis by the time they take the field here, as I expect San Francisco to finish the job in the division. My main bet will be the under, as I think both pitchers should have the upper hand here. But for the result, I’ll take the Brewers. Be sure to check out our Week 4 NFL picks!