Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Spread Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, October 4, 1:00 PM EST
Where: Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Point Spread: KC -7 / Phil +7
Over/Under Total: 54.5
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Andy Reid returns home to the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday to lead his Chiefs into battle against the hometown Eagles. These teams haven’t earned any love from their backers through 3 weeks of the 2021 NFL campaign and Betanysports.EU has made the Chiefs 7 point favorites and set the game total at 54.5. Though we’d like to bet against both of these teams, let’s keep betting against the Chiefs and take the 7 points with the home dog Eagles. Here is the handicap.
KC Just Can’t Cover
Andy Reid’s recent inability to lead his squad to a cover has been very well documented. They have only covered one spread in their last 14 games and have not cashed a ticket in 2021. Despite their continuing struggles against the spread, they continue to be touchdown favorites against anyone they play, and bettors keep lining up to buy tickets. While we should get an opportunity to buy low, when their opponents look as bad as the Eagles looked on Monday night, it’s easy to understand why the number is a touchdown again this week. This trend started last year with KC running out to early leads then giving up back door covers as they coasted in, but this year the Chiefs are not dominating teams and have only had more than a touchdown lead for 8 minutes this season. The Eagles will be the easiest contest thus far for KC, but I can’t think of any reason to expect KC to turn it on Sunday and bury the Eagles.
The Chiefs Have Real Concerns
A lot of football pundits give “hot takes” coming into a season, but nobody could have imagined Reid’s squad would be in last place after week 3. KC’s offense has turned the ball over six times, including 3 Mahomes interceptions. The offense doesn’t look crisp or show any timing, and defenses have been playing soft and limiting Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. None of the other receivers have stepped up to make big plays. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been functional, but he has yet to have a play go for more than 14 yards either on the ground or in the air, and he has lost two fumbles. The Chief offense has turned in to Mahomes making off-script plays, which look good on the highlight reel but are not the equation to sustain drives. The offense has to get back on the same page to return to the dominance they showed last year. I’m not expecting that to happen with the flip of the switch this week.
This bigger problem in KC is the defense or lack thereof. KC is 31st in points allowed, dead last in yards per play, and equally bad against the pass and run. They have no pass rush – only four sacks on the year – which is a big reason they allow 9.1 yards per pass attempt. They will face a very strong Eagle offensive line this week, so we should expect Jalen Hurts to have success both in the passing game and the running game. Chris Jones has not been dominant as he is moving around the D line, and the other linemen have not picked up the pace. Tyrann Mathieu has been his usual dominant self, but he is the only defensive player on KC that has stood out. There is really no switch the defense can flip this week to change the path of the defense. I would expect the worst defenses in the league could score against the Chiefs, so the Eagles should be able to keep the KC defense on their heels another week.
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Philly Should Rebound
As mentioned above, Philly was atrocious on Monday Night against their biggest rival. Jalen Hurts was awful, the game plan was horrible, and their dominant defensive line was run over. This game would have been over before halftime except for a somewhat fluky defensive touchdown in the 1st quarter. Philly never had a chance to cover the field goal spread Monday, but they did cover in week 1 when they blew out the Falcons, then fell just short of covering the field goal line against the 49ers. Philly is a young team with a rookie coach that obviously wasn’t ready for their prime-time performance last week.
Teams that are embarrassed in a National TV game tend to come back strong the next week, so let’s look for a better effort against the Chiefs. Their horrible performance has provided an opportunity to buy low on Philly. This look-ahead line was below a touchdown, and even though both teams played badly in Week 3, the line has moved to a touchdown, and the Eagles will probably get the hook later in the week. Philly should have success running the ball against the Chiefs, and the lack of a KC pass rush will allow Hurts to have more success than he had last week. Even if KC’s offense gets back on track, Hurts can easily keep this game close and get a back door cover if needed.
Keep Fading the Chiefs
Betting against KC as a touchdown favorite has become almost an automatic play. Let’s buy Eagles +7 tickets, and if the line moves to 7.5, let’s buy larger tickets. A good player prop in this game would be Jalen Hurts rushing yards. The line should be between 50 and 55. Look for Hurts to far exceed that number. Bet ALL your Week 4 NFL picks FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook!
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