Houston Astros at NY Yankees Game 5 Analysis & Pick

by | Oct 18, 2019 | mlb

Houston Astros (113-58) vs. New York Yankees (107-62)
When: 8:07 p.m., Friday, October 18
Where: Yankee Stadium New York

Moneyline: HOU -138/NYY +128 (5Dimes)
Runline: Astros +1.5/Yankees -1.5
Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander (21-6, 2.58 ERA, 0.80 WHIP regular season; 1-1, 3.12 WRA, 1.21 WHIP postseason) vs. James Paxton (15-6, 3.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP regular season; 0-0, 5.14 ERA, 1.71 WHIP postseason)

Wasted Opportunities

This wasn’t the plan for New York. The Yankees were supposed to even the series in Game 4 and get this thing back to Houston, most likely with a 3-2 lead. That’s not going to happen now, and there are questions as to whether the Yankees will even make it back to Houston, simply because the Yanks have wasted their chances with runners in scoring position. In Game 3, they couldn’t break through against Gerrit Cole during a relatively poor start for the Astros’ hurler, and Cole did just enough to get out with a 2-1 series lead for Houston. In Game 4, Zack Greinke walked the bases loaded, but escaped the pressure cooker with minimal damage, as the Yankees again could not take advantage. New York failed to score in the situation, allowing George Springer to take the game over by crushing a home run.

Simply put, the Yankees can’t be leaving the bases full to have any shot at a win. Zero-for-13 with runners in scoring position will not get it done.

Launching Pad

New York has been the team well-known for hitting home runs during the regular season, but when it’s mattered most, Houston has been the ones relying on the long ball. The Astros have scored 15 runs in four games, but they’ve hit six home runs, and in a low-scoring series like this one (the Yankees have scored 13, and seven of that came in Game 1), home runs are huge. George Springer and Carlos Correa each came up big in Game 4, and the Astros will need to keep taking advantage of their chances to close this out.

JV to the Rescue

That was the case in Game 2, and now in Game 5, Justin Verlander has a chance to slam the door on the Yankees and send Houston back to the World Series. Last time, Verlander held the Yankees to just two runs to take the second game, with his only mistake coming on an Aaron Judge home run. If he’s on, the Yankees will have to be pretty close to perfect — which they were nowhere near in Game 4 — to have a chance.

Betting Trends

  • The Yankees are 6-0 in Paxton’s past six home starts.
  • The Yankees are 9-4 in their previous 12 playoff home games.
  • The Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s past five starts against the AL East.
  • The Astros are 10-3 in their past 12 road games.
  • The under is 4-1-1 in the Astros’ previous six games.
  • The over is 6-1 in Paxton’s past seven starts after a loss.

Weather Report

It’s going to be a nippy night in New York, with temperatures projected to be around 49 degrees at first pitch.

Dan’s pick

As much as I think the Yankees will come out fighting to save their season, there’s only one way that this bet can go. Any time you have a chance to get Justin Verlander at a reasonable line, you have to take it, especially with a potent Astros lineup behind him that is taking advantage of its opportunities. The Yankees are a great team and have had an excellent season, but I think the run ends here with a rested Verlander ready to finish the job.

Give me Houston to close it out.