Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals Game 3 Pick

by | Oct 6, 2019 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56) vs. Washington Nationals (93-69), 10/6/19
Time: 7:45 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 6
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Listed Pitchers: Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-5, 2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) vs. Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.98, 1.03)

Moneyline: Nationals -120/Dodgers +110 (BetNow)
Over/Under: 8

The Nationals got what they needed out in Los Angeles, pulling off a split of the first two games of this National League divisional-round playoff series with the Dodgers. Washington now gets a chance to take the series lead when the teams meet for Game 3 Sunday evening in DC. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

Game 3 Betting Odds

MLB playoff betting odds opened Washington and Scherzer at around -120 over LA and Ryu, with an over/under of eight runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Dodgers vs. Nationals Game 3 Set-Up

Los Angeles took the opener of this series Thursday night 6-0, but Washington recovered to take Game 2 Friday 4-2. So the teams now move to DC for Games 3 and 4 Sunday and Monday.

The Dodgers won Game 1 as -170 favorites with Walker Buehler while the Nationals won Game 2 as +140 underdogs with Stephen Strasburg against Clay Kershaw.

Also, Games 1 and 2 of this series both played under totals of 7.5.

LA took the regular-season series from Washington this year four games to three.

Game 3 Starting Arms

Scherzer, by our strict standards, is 15/28 on quality starts this season but 0 for his last four. Tuesday, he gave up three runs and four hits, including two homers, through five innings of that 4-3 Washington wild-card victory over Milwaukee. He then threw one scoreless inning in relief in Game 2 of this NLDS Friday night. But over his last five outings total he’s allowed 15 runs and 23 hits, including six homers, through 23 2/3 innings.

On the season, the Nationals are 15-13 with Scherzer, 2-2 over his last four starts.

Over his last three starts against the Dodgers, one this season and two last season, Scherzer allowed just five runs and 14 hits through 20 innings, with 29 strikeouts. Washington won two of those three games.

Lefty Ryu is 22/29 on quality starts this year and three for his last three. Last Saturday, he held San Francisco scoreless on five hits through seven innings of a 2-0 Los Angeles victory. Ryu, over his previous three starts, allowed just three runs and 13 hits, with 21 strikeouts against zero walks, through 21 innings.

The Dodgers are 20-9 with Ryu this season, 3-1 over his last four starts.

In two starts this season against Washington Ryu allowed just one run and nine hits through 14 2/3 innings. LA won both those games.

Game 3 Batting Splits

Los Angeles batted .261/.343/.481 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those helped rank this lineup among the top half-dozen in baseball in this split. Washington batted .283/.356/.472 against left-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those helped this lineup rank among the top five in baseball in this split.

The Bullpens

The Nationals bullpen racked up a Major League-worst 5.66 ERA this season and a 1.48 WHIP while allowing a .800 OPS. Those numbers lead us to rank this bullpen among the bottom five in baseball, although it’s been better as of late.

The Dodgers pen posted a 3.78 ERA and an ML-best 1.16 WHIP while holding opponents to a .675 OPS. Numbers like those are why we rank this unit among the top five bullpens in baseball.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Los Angeles played 47-34 on the road this season.
  • Los Angeles played 77-34 against right-handed starters this season.
  • Washington finished 50-31 at home this season.
  • Washington played 24-17 against left-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Totals split 77-77 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Unders played 76-75 in Nationals games this season.
  • Overs played 41-36 in games played at Nationals Park this season.
  • Unders are 6-2 in Dodgers-Nationals games this season.
  • Unders are a combined 28-26 with Scherzer and Ryu this season.

Free MLB Pick

We’re giving Ryu a short edge in the pitching match-up for Game 3, and while Washington might own a slight edge with the sticks, Los Angeles holds a significant advantage in the bullpen comparison. So we like the baseball betting value here with the Dodgers at the underdog price.