Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals Game 4 Pick

by | Oct 7, 2019 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56) vs. Washington Nationals (93-69), 10/7/19
Time: 5:40 pm ET Monday, Oct. 7
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Listed Pitchers: Rich Hill (4-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) vs. Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.98, 1.03)

Moneyline: Nationals -133/Dodgers +123
Over/Under: 8

The Dodgers grabbed a 2-1 lead in this best-of-five National League divisional-round playoff series with a win Sunday and can move on to the NL Championship Series for the fourth straight season with a victory in Game 4 Monday evening in DC. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

Game 4 Betting Odds

MLB playoff betting odds opened Washington and Scherzer at around -135 over LA and Hill, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Nationals to -140.

Dodgers vs. Nationals Game 4 Set-Up

After splitting the first two games of this NLDS in Los Angeles, the Dodgers took a 2-1 series lead with a 10-4 victory in Game 3 Sunday. LA trailed Washington 2-1 into the sixth inning Sunday then scored seven runs with two outs to take control, on its way to the win and the cash as a -160 favorite on the MLB betting line. Games 1 and 2 of this series both played under totals of 7.5, but Game 3 cruised over a total of nine runs. Going back into the regular season, the Dodgers are 9-1 over their last ten games. LA took the regular-season series from Washington this year four games to three.

Game 4 Starting Arms

Scherzer was initially going to start Game 3 Sunday, but he was pushed back a day, giving way to Anibal Sanchez, who actually threw well. Now Scherzer is tasked with keeping Washington’s season alive. By our stringent standards, Scherzer is 15/28 on quality starts this season but 0 for his last four. Last Tuesday, he gave up three runs and four hits, including two homers, through five innings in that 4-3 Washington wild-card victory over Milwaukee. He then threw one scoreless inning of relief in Game 2 of this NLDS last Friday. But over his last five outings, he’s allowed 15 runs and 23 hits, including six homers, through 23 2/3 innings. On the season the Nationals are 15-13 with Scherzer, 2-2 over his last four starts. Over his last three starts against the Dodgers, one this season and two last season, Scherzer allowed just five runs and 14 hits through 20 innings, with 29 strikeouts. Washington won two of those three games. Lefty Hill is 6/13 on quality starts this year, 0 for three since returning from a three-month stint on the DL due to a strained forearm. But he’s been used as an “opener” for his last three starts. Most recently, eight days ago, Hill held San Francisco scoreless on one hit through three innings of a 9-0 Los Angeles victory. And over his last three outings, he allowed one run and one hit through 5 2/3 innings, with 11 strikeouts but also six walks. The Dodgers are 10-3 with Hill this season, and 3-0 over his last three starts. In his only start, this season against Washington Hill allowed three runs and five hits through five innings of a 6-0 Los Angeles loss.

Game 4 Batting Splits

Los Angeles batted .261/.343/.481 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those are why we rank this lineup among the top half-dozen in Baseball in this split. Washington batted .283/.356/.472 against left-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top five in Baseball in this split.

The Bullpens

The Nationals bullpen posted a Major League-worst 5.66 ERA this season and a 1.48 WHIP while allowing an .800 OPS. Those numbers are why we rank this unit among the bottom three or four bullpens in Baseball. The Dodgers pen posted a 3.78 ERA and an ML-best 1.16 WHIP while holding opponents to a .675 OPS. Numbers like those are why we rank this unit among the top five bullpens in Baseball.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Los Angeles played 47-34 on the road this season.
  • Los Angeles played 77-34 against right-handed starters this season.
  • Washington finished 50-31 at home this season.
  • Washington played 24-17 against left-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Totals split 77-77 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Unders played 76-75 in Nationals games this season.
  • Overs played 41-36 in games played at Nationals Park this season.
  • Unders are 6-3 in Dodgers-Nationals games this season.
  • Unders are 13-12 with Scherzer this season.
  • Overs are 8-4 with Hill this season.

Free MLB Pick

Scherzer owns an edge in the pitching match-up for Game 4, although he’s probably really going against the Los Angeles bullpen, considering Hill probably won’t go more than three innings or so. So that edge is diminished. And the Dodgers own a considerable advantage in the bullpen comparison. Meanwhile, Washington may hold a small edge with the sticks, but Los Angeles just rapped out 14 hits Sunday, so it’s bats are hot. We like the baseball betting value here with the Dodgers at the underdog price.