Marlins vs. Mets Total Pick 7/10/22

by | Last updated Jul 10, 2022 | mlb

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
Date: Sunday, July 10th, 01:40 ET
Location: Citi Field
TV: Bally Sports Florida
Money Line: Marlins +108 / Mets -130
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Total Line: 7.5


Miami: Sandy Alcantara (9-3, 1.82)
New York: Taijuan Walker (7-2, 2.86)

Marlins Projected Lineup

Brian Anderson 3B
Miguel Rojas SS
Avisaíl García RF
Jesus Sanchez CF
Jacob Stallings C
Garrett Cooper 1B
Jesús Aguilar 1B
Jon Berti 2B
Joey Wendle 3B
Sandy Alcantara P

Mets Projected Lineup

Mark Canha LF
Dominic Smith 1B
Jeff McNeil 2B
Eduardo Escobar 3B
Starling Marte RF
James McCann C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Taijuan Walker P


Miami Marlins: 40-43-0 SU / OU 40-38-5 / Run Line W/L 43-40-0
New York Mets: 53-32-0 SU / OU 44-34-7 / Run Line W/L 46-39-0

The New York Mets host the Miami Marlins on Sunday, July 10th at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-130), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

In their last game, the Marlins suffered a 1 run loss to the Mets by a score of 5-4. On their way to giving up 5 runs, the Marlins staff allowed 5 hits. The Marlins ended the game with just 4 runs on 10 hits. The loss came as Miami was the betting underdog, getting 155.0 on the moneyline. 2 With the over-under line set at 8.0 runs, the Marlins and Mets combined to go over this total. This result is part of a larger trend, as Miami has had the over has hit in more than half of their games (40-38-5).

The Marlins will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -10. A key reason for Miami’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 2.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 4.30. Miami’s overall series record is just 9-16-2.

The Mets will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Marlins by a score of 5-4. For the game, the pitching staff held the Marlins to 4 runs on 10 hits. In the victory, the Mets came up with 5 hits and 5 runs. New York picked up the win while being favored at -175.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 64 games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. The Mets and Marlins went over the run total line set at 8.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 44-34-7.

Across their last 5 contests, the Mets are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +12. New York has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 5.0 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.81. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 20-5-2.

Pitching Matchup

Miami will roll with Sandy Alcantara (9-3) as their starter. Through 17 appearances, Alcantara has an ERA of just 1.82 while averaging 7.24 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.19. Not only does Alcantara have a strong batting average allowed, but he has also avoided giving up home runs. In his previous outings, opponents are averaging just 0.44 HR/9. In terms of strikeouts, Sandy Alcantara has a strong strikeout percentage of 23.0%, including a per-game average of 6.29. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.19 walks per outing.

In today’s game, New York turns to starter Taijuan Walker. For the year, he has a record of 7-2. Heading into the game, Walker has appeared in 14 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.86. On average, he pitches 5.59 innings per appearance. In his previous outings, right-hander opponents are hitting 0.232 off the right-hander. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Walker, as he is allowing just 0.46 per 9 innings. Per game, Taijuan Walker is averaging 4.36, on a strikeout percentage of 19.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.52 walks per outing.

Miami vs New York History

Today’s matchup between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets will be their 11th meeting of the season. New York holds the edge in the series at 7-3. The over-under record in this series sits at 5-3. The average run total in these games is 7.05 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.6 runs. Dating back to last season, the New York picked up 10 wins compared to 9, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 9-10. Last year, the Marlins and Mets averaged 7.05 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.32 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
  • Miami is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
  • NY Mets is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Miami
  • NY Mets is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home

Miami Marlins at New York Mets Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s NL East showdown between Miami and New York, I expect runs to be tough to come by as both Sandy Alcantara and Taijuan Walker have been excellent on the mound. In his last 2 outings, Alacantara has worked an incredible 17 innings, giving up just 2 earned runs. I recommend taking the under at 7.5 runs.

Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5 Runs

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