Mets vs. Pirates Analysis & Runline Pick

by | Last updated Sep 6, 2022 | mlb

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Tuesday September 6th, 6:35PM ET

Location: PNC Park


Money Line: Mets -200 / Pirates +165 (Betnow: 100% bonus up to $500 with promo code PREDICTEM)

Total Line: 8.5


New York: Taijuan Walker (10-3, 3.45)
Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (4-10, 4.43)

Mets Projected Lineup

Mark Canha LF
Eduardo Escobar 3B
Daniel Vogelbach 1B
Starling Marte RF
Jeff McNeil 2B
James McCann C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Taijuan Walker P

Pirates Projected Lineup

Kevin Newman 2B
Tucupita Marcano 2B
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Jack Suwinski LF
Jason Delay C
Ben Gamel LF
Michael Chavis 1B
Oneil Cruz SS
Bryan Reynolds CF
Mitch Keller P


New York Mets: 85-50-0 SU / OU 66-60-9 / Run Line W/L 73-62-0
Pittsburgh Pirates: 49-84-0 SU / OU 58-66-9 / Run Line W/L 65-68-0

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the New York Mets on Tuesday, September 6th at PNC Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 6:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-200), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Mets will look to bounce back from a tough loss to Washington by the score of 7-1. In the loss, New York’s pitchers gave up 7 runs on 11 hits. The Mets ended the game with just 1 run on 6 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -310.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 103 of their games, winning at a rate of 68.0%. Combined, the Mets and Washington fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.5 runs. New York games have still surpassed the over-under line more than half of the time, at 66-60-9.

In the Mets’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Despite their recent success, their last 5 run margin comes in at -5. New York has put together this record, despite averaging just 3.2 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.64. So far, New York has won over half of their 42 series played, going 30-9-3.

The Pirates are coming off a tight loss to the Blue Jays, dropping the game 4-3. Despite the losing effort, the team’s pitchers held the Blue Jays to 4 runs and 9 hits. With their 5 hits, the Pirates could only plate 3 runners. This loss came as no surprise, as Pittsburgh came into the game as the underdog, getting 185.0. In their 112 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 33.0%. With this result, the Pirates and Blue Jays combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 58-66-9.

The Pirates come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -11 over their last 5 games. If Pittsburgh is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 1.8 runs per game, compared to a season average of 3.51. Pittsburgh has a below .500 series record of just 9-27-7.

Pitching Matchup

New York will roll with Taijuan Walker (10-3) as their starter. To date, Walker has an ERA of 3.45 while lasting an average of 5.31 innings per appearance. So far, Walker has a batting average allowed of 0.24. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Walker, as he is allowing just 0.74 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Taijuan Walker has a strong strikeout percentage of 18.0%, including a per-game average of 4.04. Command has been a problem for Walker, as he is giving up 2.79 walks per outing.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send Mitch Keller to the mound with an overall record of 4-10. Keller gets the start with an ERA of 4.43. On average, he has lasted 4.96 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.278. So far, Keller has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.87 home runs per 9 innings. Per game, Mitch Keller is averaging 4.28, on a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. Keller comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 3.34 free passes per outing.

New York vs Pittsburgh History

Today’s matchup between the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates will be their first meeting of the season. Last year, Pittsburgh won the season series 4-3. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 5-2, with the average scoring differential sitting at 3.14 runs. Between the games, the average run total was 10.86 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League Central.
  • Mets are 8-2 in their last 10 Monday games.
  • Pirates are 17-35 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Pirates are 23-48 in their last 71 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Heading into Monday’s Labor Day matchup between New York and Pittsburgh, the Mets are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. Even though Mitch Keller is coming off one of his best outings of the season, racking up 10 K’s vs Milwaukee, I don’t expect him to see that same success vs the Mets. I recommend taking the Mets to win big on the runline.

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