Milwaukee Brewers at LA Angels Pick

by | Apr 10, 2019 | mlb

Time: 10:07 pm ET
Where: Angel Stadium of Anaheim, Anaheim, Calif.
Listed Pitchers: Brandon Woodruff (Mil) vs. Felix Pena (LAA)
TV: ESPN+
Moneyline: Brewers -141/Angels +120 (less at dime line books)
Over/Under: 8.5

The Angels erased an early deficit on Tuesday and ended up with a comfortable 11-8 victory, their second straight over the Brewers and fifth straight overall. Can the Angels get the sweep for the second consecutive series, or will Milwaukee bounce back and salvage one win of three on its trip to Orange County?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday’s game was originally seen as a coin flip, starting with the Angels at +100 to complete the sweep. By the time the Angels had finished off the Brewers for a victory on Tuesday, the Angels were going at +120, suggesting that the gambling public believes that the Angels are about to see their winning streak end.

Brewers vs. Angels Set-Up

There’s not exactly much here in the way of recent history between these squads. This series marked the first time since 2016 that the squads had met in a regular season game (they do regularly play each spring training in Arizona) and their first meeting in Anaheim since 2010. The last time the Brewers picked up a win in Anaheim came on June 15, 2010, when David Bush outdueled Ervin Santana.

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The teams only play once ever three years, and during the past four matchups, the Angels have come out ahead on three occasions.

Saturday’s Starting Arms

Making Woodruff (1-0, 6.00) a starter has had mixed results so far. On one hand, the one-time reliever has done an excellent job of missing bats, striking out 13 so far this season. On the other, he barely made it through five innings to be eligible for the win in his first start, and the Cubs knocked him out of the game after four innings and six runs given up.

His opponent is Pena (0-1, 5.40), who has had problems of his own pitching starter-type innings. In two starts, Pena has yet to become eligible for the win and has needed to come out before finishing the fifth inning. Against Texas, Pena had struck out seven and held the Rangers to just one run before hitting 90 pitches in the fifth and needing to come out.

Saturday’s Batting Splits

The main concern for the Angels is the status of Mike Trout. The Anaheim outfielder suffered a right groin strain Tuesday, and if he isn’t able to play, that drastically changes what the Angels’ offense is able to do. Even with Trout, the Angels’ offense hasn’t been anything special, as they’re hitting just .207 for the season and rank 20th in runs scored. Milwaukee has been much better at bringing guys around to score, as the Brewers average five runs a game, good for sixth in the majors.

The Bullpens

When the Angels get a lead, they tend not to lose it. Anaheim’s bullpen has been outstanding at protecting leads during this five-game win streak, and the bullpen leads the majors in ERA at 1.67. That number is because of some impressive pitching on the part of the Angels, as they’re one of just three teams whose bullpen has managed to notch 50 strikeouts this season. Milwaukee, on the other hand, has been more inconsistent. Granted, the Brewers’ bullpen had a Herculean task after Alex Claudio got knocked out of the game in the second inning Tuesday, but the Brewers still coughed up a lead to the Angels, a disheartening fact considering that Milwaukee’s offense had brought the Brewers back from a 6-0 deficit.

Totals Report

 The under is 4-0-1 during the Brewers’ past five Wednesday contests.

  • The under is 5-1 during the Brewers’ past six interleague road games.
  • The under is 4-1 during Pena’s past five starts at home.
  • The under is 13-3-1 in the Angels’ past 17 outings.

Free MLB Pick

I can see why the line has moved in Milwaukee’s direction, as the Angels’ run isn’t likely to last too much longer. The Angels’ offense doesn’t inspire confidence, and there’s little to like about the fact that they might have to play without Mike Trout. But I’m still going to take the Angels for one reason: the bullpens.

Milwaukee’s bullpen isn’t on the same level as Anaheim’s when the two are at full strength, and they’re not at full strength in this one. The Brewer bullpen had to pitch 7.2 innings Tuesday, which isn’t ideal in any situation. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, this pitching matchup of two starters who don’t pitch deep into the game means that this game is likely to require some heavy lifting from the bullpen again. Brandon Woodruff needs to get into the seventh inning to give his team a realistic chance, and I don’t see that happening. I think the Angels keep it going against the exhausted Brewer bullpen, and I’m going to pick Anaheim here.

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