Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals Pick
Time: 7:05 PM ET
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Listed Pitchers: C Anderson (Mil) & Stephen Strasburg (Wash)
TV: FS – Wisconsin, MASN
Moneyline: Brewers +130/Nationals -140
The Milwaukee Brewers, striving for what would be their first playoff berth since 2011, are 8-3 over their last 11 games. The Washington Nationals, going the other way, are 3-5 their last eight times out. How are we playing Saturday’s Brewers-Nationals contest with our daily free MLB picks?
Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened Washington at around -140 over the Brew Crew, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
The Nats could also be found getting around +150 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.
The Brewers grabbed the opener of this series Friday night 4-1. Milwaukee scored all its runs in the first three innings and got another quality performance from starter Jhoulys Chacin, for whom the Brewers are now 20-9 this season.
So Milwaukee’s won three games in a row, and eight of its last 11. At 76-60 overall the Brewers trail the first-place Cubs by four games in the NL Central, but they also own the second National League wild-card spot for the moment, 2.5 games clear of the third-place Dodgers.
Meanwhile, Washington’s lost two in a row, following a three-game winning streak. At 67-68 overall the Nats sit 7.5 games back of first-place Atlanta in the NL East, and they’re 8.5 games back in that NL wild-card race.
Milwaukee leads the season series with Washington three games to one.
Strasburg (7-7, 4.15), by our strict standards, is 8/16 on quality starts this season, and one for two since doing a month-long stint on the DL. Tuesday he held Philadelphia to two runs through six innings, but just before that he he gave up five runs and two home run in four innings against those same Phillies. On the season Washington is 8-8 with Strasburg, with overs going 10-6, in part thanks to some poor efforts on his part.
This will be Strasburg’s first start against Milwaukee since 2014, and that’s already a long time ago, as far as gleaning any useful handicapping information goes.
Anderson (9-7, 4.04) is 11/26 on quality starts this year, but only one for his last four. Last Sunday he allowed four runs and a couple of home runs in five innings against Pittsburgh, and over his last four starts he’s given up 14 runs and seven dingers through 19 2/3 innings. On the season the Brewers are 14-12 with Anderson, with unders going 15-9.
This will be Anderson’s first start against the Nationals since 2014, and as mentioned above that’s a long time ago.
We’ll give Strasburg and Washington a short handicapping edge here in this pitching match-up.
Milwaukee owns a .253/.318/.424 batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this season.
The Nationals own a .253/.329/.423 split against RHP this year.
We’ll call the splits with the sticks a push for this game.
The Brewers bullpen owns a 3.83 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.
The Washington pen owns a 3.88 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.
We’ll call the comparison of the bullpens a push, too.
Overs are 33-31 in games played at Nationals Park this year, which are averaging 9.2 total runs per.
Unders are 3-1 in Brewers-Nationals games this season.
The Brewers made three trades Friday, adding a starter, a reliever and an outfielder, as they chase a playoff berth. The Nationals, on the other hand, have thrown in the towel on this season, and traded away a couple of veterans Friday. So we know the mindset of both these teams; one is playing for now, the other for the future. And in this spot that’s all we need to know. Despite giving Washington the edge in this pitching match-up we’re going with Milwaukee for our free MLB pick for Saturday.