MLB Picks: Athletics vs. Giants 4/26/22

by | Last updated Apr 26, 2022 | mlb

Oakland Athletics (9-8) vs. San Francisco Giants (12-5)

When: 9:45 p.m., Tuesday, April 26

Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco

Moneyline: OAK +230/SF -270 (BetNow – 100)% bonuses are hard to find during the MLB seasons. We’ve worked out a special deal with these guys to get you a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you go through the link on our page and then enter bonus code PREDICTEM when registering!)

Runline: Athletics +1.5/Giants -1.5

Total: 6.5

Starting Pitchers: Daulton Jefferies (1-2, 1.17 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) vs. Carlos Rodon (2-0, 1.06 ERA, 0.82 WHIP)

Hard Luck Loser

Shane Bieber and Jacob deGrom know this all too well: the pain that comes with turning in a great pitching performance and ending up the loser anyway. That’s happened twice to Jefferies now, as he gave up two earned runs in a decent showing against Toronto’s powerful lineup, then only allowed one unearned run in six innings against Baltimore. Unfortunately for Jefferies, the Athletics never broke through against the Orioles, earning Jefferies a loss in a 1-0 setback. Only two earned runs have crossed the plate in three games this season against Jefferies, who is starting to suggest that he’s the real deal on the hill.
Jefferies makes the Athletics a very enticing prospect in the first five innings at +230, but the problem is that means you have to trust a weak Oakland offense to push across a run against Carlos Rodon. The A’s are good at cashing in on opportunities when they actually get on base, but a .209 batting average means that this team just isn’t getting on base all that often. It might be a better play to bank on both pitchers in a low-scoring duel. However, that doesn’t come with anywhere near the value of backing the A’s to claim the lead after five.

Swish City

One of the main reasons why the total is so low for this game is that Rodon has also been outstanding on the mound during the young season. In 17 innings of work, he’s struck out 29 hitters while giving up a mere eight hits and two earned runs. Right now, that leads to two questions with Rodon: is this sustainable, and is April simply the month where he’s at his best?
The reason that’s two questions instead of one is the fact that Rodon did something similar a year ago with the White Sox, posting a 0.72 ERA in the first month of the season. He wasn’t quite as effective over the rest of the campaign, but he didn’t meltdown: his ERA for the season was a robust 2.37, and he finished with a 13-5 mark after winning his four April starts.
Whether or not he sustains this long-term, it’s clear that Rodon is a top pitcher in April, and it’s going to be a tall task for Oakland’s light-hitting offense to create enough chances against him to break through.

Silent Assassins

The early part of the season didn’t exactly have San Francisco putting up a lot of runs, as the Giants scored just 22 runs in seven of their first eight games. They’ve started to roll a little more as of late, as they have won five of six and outscored the opposition by 35-16 in that stretch, including a 24-6 rout of Washington during a three-game sweep in the District.
The Giants’ lineup still tends to take people by surprise, as this is still seen as a team that won with pitching and defense a year ago and wasn’t much of a threat before last season. As such, the offense doesn’t always get the respect that it should.

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Betting Trends

  • The Athletics are 1-4 in their past five games after a win.
  • The Athletics are 4-1 in their past five games against a left-handed starter.
  • The Giants have won seven straight interleague games against a right-handed starter.
  • The Giants are 41-11 in their past 52 games as a favorite.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Athletics’ past five games as an underdog.
  • The under is 6-2 in the Athletics’ past eight games overall.
  • The under is 3-1-1 in the Giants’ past five games on grass.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Giants’ past five games as a home favorite.
  • The Giants have won five of the past seven meetings.
  • The over is 5-2 in the teams’ past seven matchups in San Francisco.

Weather Report

There’s going to be a chill in the air in San Francisco, with temperatures at 54 degrees at first pitch. The wind could play a factor here, as winds will blow at 15 miles per hour toward dead center field.

Dan’s Pick

The value just is not there with the Giants at this price. Rodon is good, but he’s not overpowering, and the Athletics tend to hit lefties pretty well. The fact that I can get the Athletics +1.5 for -110 in this game is very appealing, as I don’t expect much in the way of offense. I think this will be a tight, low-scoring game, so the under and Athletics +1.5 both look good to me. Question: Did you know that you could be risking less and winning more by wagering on MLB games at reduced juice? Why pay more? It’s dumb!

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