MLB Picks: Twins vs. Rays

by | Last updated May 1, 2022 | mlb

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays
Date: Sunday, May 1st, 1:10 ET
Location: Tropicana Field
Money Line: Twins +125 / Rays -145 (Bovada)
Total Line: 8


Minnesota: Josh Fleming (2-2, 4.5)
Tampa Bay: Josh Winder (0-0, 3.48)


Minnesota Twins: 12-9-0 SU / OU 8-12-1 / Run Line W/L 9-12-0
Tampa Bay Rays: 12-9-0 SU / OU 8-13-0 / Run Line W/L 8-13-0

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Minnesota Twins on Sunday, May 1st at Tropicana Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 1:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Tampa Bay as the favorite (-145), with an OU line set at 8.

Recent Form

The Minnesota Twins will look to pick up another big win after they defeated the Tampa Bay by a score of 9-1. On offense, Minnesota’s lineup put together a total of 14 hits, while the pitching staff allowed 1 run on 4 hits. Together, the Twins and Tampa Bay combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.0 runs. Even with this game going over the total, Minnesota still has an over-under record of just 8-12-1.

The Twins are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at 15. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 5.4 runs per game compared to their season average of 4.05. Minnesota’s overall series record is just 2-2-3.

The Rays will be looking to move on from a tough loss to Minnesota by the score of 9-1. This was disappointing for the Rays, as they were favored to win at -185.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 18 games, winning at a rate of 61.0%. For the game, Tampa Bay’s staff gave up 9 runs on 14 hits, while on offense, Tampa Bay came up with 4 hits leading to 1 run. In terms of the over-under, the Rays and Minnesota combined to surpass the line of 7.5 runs. So far, Tampa Bay has an over-under record of just 8-13-0.

In their last 5 games, the Rays have put together a record of 3-2. Tampa Bay has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite their last 5-scoring margin sitting at -5. Offensively, Tampa Bay’s lineup is averaging 3.2 runs per game over their last 5 contests. For the season, the team comes in with a per game average of 4.14. On the season, Tampa Bay has won more than half of their series, going 4-2-1.

Pitching Matchup

For the Twins, Josh Fleming gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 2-2. To date, Fleming has an ERA of 4.5 while lasting an average of 3.0 innings per appearance. Through 1 start, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.327. Currently, he is allowing 0.75 home runs allowed per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Josh Fleming has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 25.4%, while averaging 11.0 K’s per 9 innings.

For the Rays, Josh Winder gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 0-0, on an ERA of 3.48. So far, he is averaging 3.37 innings per outing. Opposing lineups have put together a combined batting average of 0.189 against Winder. In terms of power, the left-hander is giving up 1.74 homers per 9 innings pitched. Heading into Today’s action, Josh Winder’s is averaging 4.0 K’s per 9 innings. Throughout the season, his strong command has led to an average of just 1.0 walks per contest.

Minnesota vs Tampa Bay History

So far, the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins have met up 2 times, Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Minnesota and Tampa Bay each have 1 win. Through 2 games, the series’ over-under record is 1-1, with the average run total sitting at 11.5 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 6.5 runs. When looking back to last season, Minnesota and Tampa Bay split the season series, with each team picking up 3. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 4-2. Last year, Minnesota and Tampa Bay averaged 11.5 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.83 runs per contest.

Key Injuries

Minnesota Twins
Bailey Ober: Groin (10-DAY IL)
Sonny Gray: Hamstring (10-DAY IL)
Jorge Alcala: Elbow (60-DAY IL)
Jhon Romero: Bicep (10-DAY IL)
Alex Kirilloff: Wrist (10-DAY IL)
Randy Dobnak: Finger (60-DAY IL)
Kenta Maeda: Elbow (60-DAY IL)

Tampa Bay Rays
Ji-Man Choi: Elbow (QUESTIONABLE)
Ryan Yarbrough: Groin (10-DAY IL)
Chris Mazza: Back (10-DAY IL)
Francisco Mejia: Illness (COVID-19 IL)
JT Chargois: Oblique (10-DAY IL)
Shane Baz: Elbow (60-DAY IL)
Luis Patino: Oblique (60-DAY IL)
Brendan McKay: Shoulder (60-DAY IL)
Peter Fairbanks: Back (60-DAY IL)
Nick Anderson: Elbow (60-DAY IL)
Yonny Chirinos: Elbow (60-DAY IL)
Tyler Glasnow: Elbow (60-DAY IL)

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Betting Trends

  • Twins are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win.
  • Twins are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
  • Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
  • Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.

Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

With a lefty on the mound, look for Minnesota to once again have a strong offensive showing. On the season, they are the 2nd best run scoring team against lefties. Given that Josh Winder comes in making his first start, I don’t expect him to work deep into the game. I like the Twins to pick up the win.

Free Pick:

Twins ML

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