New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies Pick 7/28/20

by | Jul 28, 2020 | mlb

New York Yankees (2-1) at Philadelphia Phillies (1-2), 7/28/20

Time: 6:05 pm ET Tuesday, July 28

Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Listed Pitchers: Jake Arrieta (8-8, 4.64 in 2019) vs. JA Happ (12-8, 4.91)

TV: FS 1

Moneyline: NA

Over/Under: NA

NOTE: This game has been postponed. Football is coming soon! For those of you not familiar with how football wagering works, check out our latest article on How to Bet on Football!

After having the opener of their four-game, two-city inter-league series postponed Monday night, the Yankees and Phillies will try again Tuesday in Philly. Phillies manager Joe Girardi is going against his former team, and Yankees starter JA Happ is going against his former outfit. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

As of early Tuesday’s MLB betting, odds were holding off on lining this game, apparently because of some uncertainty surrounding the starting pitcher situations with both teams, following Monday’s cancellation.

Yankees vs. Phillies Set-Up

New York opened this abbreviated 2020 season by taking two of three games from the World Series champion Nationals in DC over the weekend. The Yanks won the opener Thursday 4-1 with newcomer Gerrit Cole on the hill, then lost Saturday 9-2, but then scored two runs in the seventh inning and one in the eighth to win Sunday 3-2.

New York’s two wins over Washington both came as favorites on the MLB betting line, and Saturday’s loss came at a price of -205.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, opened its season by dropping two of three games at home to Miami. The Phillies lost the opener 5-2 at a price of -185 with Aaron Nola, won as a solid favorite Saturday, then took a hit at -210 with Vince Velasquez Sunday.

Unfortunately, word came down Sunday night that several Marlins had tested positive for the C-19 virus, causing the cancellation of Monday’s game involving the Phillies. And uncertainty still surrounds Tuesday’s game.

The Yankees are playing this season against a wins betting over/under of 37.5, highest in the American League.

The Phillies are facing a wins O/U of 31.5.

These teams last met back in 2018 when New York took two of three games in Philly. All three of those games played under their totals.

Tuesday’s Starting Arms

Arrieta hit 10/24 on quality starts last season before having his campaign end in August due to bone spur surgery on his elbow. The former NL Cy Young Award winner also posted a 1.47 WHIP last year,
giving up 149 hits and walking 51 through 135 2/3 innings.

And yet the Phillies played 13-11 in Arrieta’s starts last year.

Arrieta’s last start against the Yankees came back in June of 2018 when over five innings, he gave up six runs – three earned – and nine hits in a 6-0 Philly defeat.

Lefty Happ hit on just 8/30 on quality starts last year. He posted a 1.30 WHIP and a 140/49 K/BB ratio, which are respectable, but gave up 34 homers, 6th-most in all of Baseball.

Nonetheless, the Yankees played 20-10 when Happ started last year.

This will be Happ’s first start against Philadelphia since May of 2018, when, as a Blue Jay, he gave up three runs – two earned – and six hits through 6 2/3 innings of a 5-3 Toronto victory.

Tuesday’s Batting Splits

New York batted .265 last year against right-handed pitching, with a .336 team OBP and a .484 team slugging percentage.

Philadelphia batted .255/.331/.447 against left-handed pitching last season.

The Bullpens

The New York bullpen has allowed seven runs and 13 hits through 13 innings of work so far this season. This unit is also operating for the moment without fireballing closer Aroldis Chapman, who tested positive for C-19 a couple of weeks ago.

The Phillies bullpen, after a bad Sunday against the Marlins, has allowed eight runs and 14 hits through 11 2/3 innings this season.

MLB Betting Trends

New York played 46-35 on the road last year.
Philadelphia played 49-32 at home last year.
New York played 70-41 against right-handed starters last year.
Philadelphia played 21-16 against left-handed starters last year.

Totals Report

  • Overs played 84-72 in Yankees games last season.
  • Unders played 82-73 in Phillies games last season.
  • Unders played 42-36 in games played at Citizens Bank Park last season.
  • Overs played 13-9 in Arrieta’s starts last season.
  • Unders played 17-12 in Happ’s starts last season.

Free MLB Pick

We give Happ a short edge in the pitching match-up, and the Yankees also own edges with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison, even without Chapman. So we like New York here for our free MLB pick for Tuesday.