New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Pick 6/29/19

by | Jun 29, 2019 | mlb

New York Yankees (52-28) vs. Boston Red Sox (44-38), 6/29/19
Time: 1:10 pm ET Saturday, June 29
Where: London Stadium, London, England
Listed Pitchers: Masahiro Tanaka (5-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) vs. Rick Porcello (5-7, 4.52, 1.35)
TV: Fox

Moneyline: Yanks -125/Red Sox +115 (GTBets)
Over/Under: 11.5

The Yankees and Red Sox make an Easterly detour across the Pond for a pair of games this weekend in London, starting Saturday afternoon American time. New York holds a considerable lead on Boston in their AL East divisional race, so the Sox would like to make up some ground wherever the teams may meet. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Tanaka at around -135 over Boston and Porcello, with an over/under of 11 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line to about -125 and bumped the total up to 11.5.

Yanks vs. Sox Set-Up

New York just swept three games at home from Toronto earlier this week, winning Thursday’s series finale 8-7 on a run in the bottom of the ninth. Just before that the Yankees took three of four games from AL West-leading Houston; just before that they swept three games from Tampa Bay; and just before that they won the last two games of a series against the White Sox.

So New York is a hot 11-1 over its last 12 games.

Boston, meanwhile, just took two of three games at home from those White Sox, missing out on the sweep by losing Thursday’s series finale 8-7, giving up two runs in the top of the ninth. Just before that the Red Sox lost two of three to Toronto. So Boston is only 2-3 over its last five games.

At 52-28 overall New York led the AL East by 6.5 games over Tampa Bay heading into Friday night’s action, with 44-38 Boston nine games back. The Yankees were also tied with Minnesota for the best record in the American League.

The Red Sox also trailed Texas by a game and a half in the battle for the second AL wild-card slot.

New York leads the season series with Boston four games to one.

The configuration of the field at London Stadium puts the foul poles at 330 feet and straight-away center at a cozy 385. But it also includes a lot of foul territory, where would-be souvenirs at most ballparks might turn into outs.

Saturday’s Starting Arms

Porcello, by our stringent standards, is only 6/16 on quality starts this season but two for his last three. Last Sunday he gave up five runs on eight hits and four walks through six innings of a 6-1 Sox loss to the Blue Jays. But over his previous two starts, he allowed just two runs and nine hits through 13 2/3 innings.

Boston is 9-7 with Porcello this season, 2-1 over his last three starts.

Over his last six starts against the Yankees, one earlier this month and five last year, Porcello allowed 12 runs and 24 hits through 33 innings. The Red Sox won four of those six games.

Tanaka is 9/16 on quality starts this year and two for his last two. Last Saturday he held the Astros to two runs and eight hits through six innings of a 7-5 New York victory. And just before that he tossed a complete-game, two-hit shutout, with one walk and 10 strikeouts, in a 3-0 win over the Rays.

The Yankees are 8-8 with Tanaka this season, 3-0 over his last three starts.

In five starts against Boston last year Tanaka allowed 17 runs and 32 hits, including seven homers, through 24 innings. Thanks to some good run support, New York won three of those five games.

Saturday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .271/.347/.479 against right-handed pitching this season.

Boston is batting .273/.352/.461 against RH pitching this season.

Both these lineups rank among the top three or four in the Majors against RH pitching this season.

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The Bullpens

The Yanks bullpen owns a 4.01 ERA this season and a 1.28 WHIP while allowing a .705 OPS.

The Red Sox pen owns a 3.97 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .723 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 44-33 in Yankees games this season.
  • Overs are 45-34 in Red Sox games this season.
  • Unders are 4-1 in Yanks-Sox games this season.
  • Overs are a combined 16-15 in games started by Porcello and Tanaka this season.

Free MLB Pick

Based on recent performance against these opponents we give Porcello and Boston a short edge in this pitching match-up. Also, we’re calling both the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison washes. So we see baseball betting value here with the Red Sox at the underdog price.

Take the Red Sox +115