Ohio at Miami Ohio
Free Pick Prediction and Analysis
One of my best plays in college football this season is the one I haven’t assigned a stupid name to yet.
It’s based on an offbeat category that I’m pretty sure 99% of bettors don’t even look at.
A plus number in the category gets a number written next to the team in green ink
A negative number in the category gets a number written next to the team in red ink.
When I have one team with the green number and one team with a red number, AND the team with the red number is the Favorite, you bet against the team with the negative number.
Going into last week it had a record of 3-6, a 67% Fade.
Last week it only gave me one play, Georgia State +6′.
I would have bet it on the 3-6 record alone (plus the highly successful bowl season the play provided me last yeare) but here’s what sealed the deal for me on buying the play.
From last week’s analysis:
“Yes, the standard stats all point to the Mountaineers, BUT, there’s this – if App State was laying six points in every game this season, like they are in this one, they’d have a record of 1-6.
And the one game that would have covered was when they faced the FCS team, Maine.
And more importantly there’s this – in the Mountaineers last game, a 16-3 loss, they were totally dominated in the time of possession battle, 44 minutes to 16.”
So I had standard sets all telling Joe Public to bet on the Mountaineers (which is why the opening line climbed from App State -3 to -6′.)
I had a team that covered as a six point or higher Fav in only one game all season, and that was against an FCS team.
And most importantly I had a team that was totally dominated in time of possession in the previous game, now facing Texas Tech, ranked 26th in the nation with 187 rushing yards per game.
Result?
The Panthers dominated the run game 260 yards to the Mountaineers 59!
And this resulted in the expected time of possession differential, won by the Panthers 37.19 to 22.41.
Final score, 39-23, a 16-point margin of victory for a team that was getting 6′.
The spot is now 3-7, a 70% Fade.
And I have another one of these tonight.
Ohio has a green number.
Miami Ohio has a red number.
Miami Ohio is the favorite.
Easy decision to make, bet on the Bobcats, right?
Not so fast.
Right now, the board is divided, some books still have Miami-Oh at -1, but some have moved to pick ’em and Ohio -1.
If only I had numbers on what happens when this spot has a flip-flop Fav.
Wait a minute – I DO have a note on this in my charts.
Week 9, October 30th.
UCF had a negative number, Baylor had a positive number, and UCF was the Fav when I did my early week handicapping.
But the line flipped and Baylor became a two point Fav.
Final score?
Baylor 41-9.
Our sponsor Bovada still has Miami-Oh at -1, so if you have an account there you can get Ohio +1.
If you don’t have an account there – get one!
If you are going to maximize your profits you have to have multiple outs so you can always get the best line.
Since some of my readers don’t have an account there (but hopefully will in the very near future) I’ll use the line that most people can get, Ohio -1.
The Bobcats are 3-2 SU on the Rd.
The RedHawks are just 2-2 at Hm vs FBS teams.
By this one now because it will likely go higher by kickoff.
My play:
Ohio -1
Recap: 2-0
Record: 17-17
Review:
I banked a unit with a win on Fla-Atl on Thursday night.
That makes WF1 9-2, 82%, when it’s a Hm team. Unfortunately, that was the only game that qualified last week.
Hopefully I’ll have a few of them this week.
The other play was Georgia State in the Red vs Green spot. Also only had one play qualify last week, hopefully I’ll have a few more this week.
Sarting with tonight.
