Orioles vs Red Sox Betting Stats & Predictions

by | Last updated May 28, 2022 | mlb

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
Date: Saturday, May 28th, 12:10 ET
Location: Fenway Park
TV: MLBN (out-of-market only)
Money Line: Orioles +175 / Red Sox -191
Total Line: 9.5


Baltimore: Jordan Lyles (3-4, 4.10)
Boston: Nathan Eovaldi (1-2, 4.10)

Orioles Projected Lineup

Ramon Urias 3B
Rougned Odor 2B
Trey Mancini 1B
Anthony Santander RF
Adley Rutschman C
Jorge Mateo SS
Ryan Mountcastle 1B
Cedric Mullins CF
Austin Hays LF
Mike Baumann P

Red Sox Projected Lineup

Franchy Cordero RF
Christian Vázquez 1B
Alex Verdugo LF
Jackie Bradley Jr. CF
Trevor Story 2B
Rafael Devers 3B
J.D. Martinez LF
Xander Bogaerts SS
Enrique Hernández CF
Nathan Eovaldi P


Baltimore Orioles: 19-27-0 SU / OU 18-27-1 / Run Line W/L 27-19-0
Boston Red Sox: 21-24-0 SU / OU 19-23-3 / Run Line W/L 24-21-0The Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, May 28th at Fenway Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 12:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Boston as the favorite (OFF), with an OU line set at OFF.

Recent Form

The Baltimore Orioles will look to pick up another big win after they defeated the Boston by a score of 12-8. For the game, Baltimore’s pitching staff allowed 8 runs on 14 hits. The Orioles lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up 15 hits, leading to 12 runs. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 155.0 on the moneyline. 4 Together, the Orioles and Boston combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 10.0 runs. On the season, Baltimore’s over-under record is 18-27-1.

The Orioles are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential 4. Offensively, the team has put up 31 runs in their last 5 games. Baltimore’s season average comes in at 3.72 (26th. Baltimore’s overall series record is just 7-7-1.

Boston will look to move on from a 4 runs loss to the Orioles, falling by the score of 12-8. On their way to giving up 12 runs, the Red Sox staff allowed 15 hits. Offensively, they finished with 8 runs on 14 hits. Leading into the game, Boston was the betting favorite at -182.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 24 games, winning at a rate of 50.0%. The Red Sox and Orioles went over the run total line set at 10.0 runs. So far, Boston has an over-under record of just 19-23-3.

Across their last 5 contests, the Red Sox are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 20. Overall, the Red Sox are averaging 4.78 runs per contest. But, over their last 5 outings, they have been scoring at a clip of 9.8 runs per contest. Boston has a below .500 series record of just 5-8-2.


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Pitching Matchup

Baltimore will roll with Jordan Lyles (3-4) as their starter. So far, Baumann has put together an ERA of 4.10. In his nine starts this season he has recorded four quality starts, but has zero in his last four outings.  Teams have been hitting him as shown in his allowed OBA of 2.70. He has had some success recently against the Red Sox allowing just two earned runs over 13 innings pitched in his last two starts with both coming last season. Lyles has held the Boston batters to .225 career batting average, but the number is skewed by Trevor Story who has a lifetime BA of .167 over 18 at-bats against him.

Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for the Red Sox, with an overall record of 1-2. To date, Eovaldi has an ERA of 4.1 while lasting an average of 5.34 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.251. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Eovaldi, averaging 2.81 homers per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Nathan Eovaldi is averaging 5.8 K’s per game, on a strikeout percentage of 26.0%. Throughout the season, Eovaldi has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.49 per contest.

Baltimore vs Boston History

For the season, Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox will be playing their 4th game of the season. So far, Baltimore is leading the season series, 3-1. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-2. The average run total in these games is 10.11 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.75 runs. Dating back to last season, the Boston picked up 13 wins compared to 6, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 8-11. Last year, the Orioles and Red Sox averaged 10.11 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.63 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 6 games when playing Boston
  • Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
  • Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s AL East matchup between Baltimore and Boston, I recommend taking the Red Sox to pick up the home win. After a rough outing vs the Houston Astros, starter Nathan Eovaldi bounced back with a quality start against Seattle. Look for a strong outing from Eovaldi to lead Boston to a bounce-back win.

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