Orioles vs. Yankees Total Play

by | Oct 1, 2022 | mlb

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees
Date: Saturday October 1st, 01:05 ET
Location: Yankee Stadium
TV: YES
Money Line: Orioles +170 / Yankees -210
Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Baltimore: Austin Voth (5-3, 4.19) New York: Nestor Cortes (11-4, 2.56)

Orioles Projected Lineup

Tyler Nevin 3B Jorge Mateo SS Jesús Aguilar 1B Anthony Santander RF Austin Hays RF Terrin Vavra 2B Adley Rutschman C Ryan Mountcastle 1B Ryan McKenna LF Austin Voth P

Yankees Projected Lineup

Harrison Bader CF Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS Giancarlo Stanton LF Aaron Judge RF Oswaldo Cabrera 2B Josh Donaldson 3B Jose Trevino C Gleyber Torres 2B Anthony Rizzo 1B Nestor Cortes P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Baltimore Orioles: 81-76-0 SU / OU 70-81-6 / Run Line W/L 96-61-0 New York Yankees: 96-60-0 SU / OU 75-77-4 / Run Line W/L 70-86-0

The New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, October 1st at Yankee Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-210), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

In the Baltimore Orioles’ last game, they picked up a 2-1 win over the NY Yankees. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the NY Yankees to 1 run on 4 hits. On offense, Baltimore’s lineup put together a total of 5 hits, leading to 2 runs. Baltimore picked up the win, despite getting 145.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Orioles and NY Yankees fell short of the over-under betting line of 7.5 runs. With this result, Baltimore’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 70-81-6.

Over the Orioles’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -1. Despite their below .500 record, in Baltimore’s last 5 games, they are averaging just 5.8. Their season-long average currently sits at 4.23 (19th. So far, Baltimore has won over half of their 52 series played, going 25-22-5.

The Yankees are coming off a tight loss to the Orioles, dropping the game 2-1. For the game, the pitching staff held the Orioles to 2 runs on 5 hits. At the plate, the Yankees only came through for 1 run on 4 hits. Leading into the game, New York was the betting favorite at -175.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 142 games, winning at a rate of 64.0%. With this result, the Yankees and Orioles combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 75-77-4.

Across their last 5 contests, the Yankees are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +8. New York has played above .500 baseball, despite averaging just 3.6 runs in their last 5 games. This is a drop in production compared to their season average of 5.04. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 30-16-6.

Pitching Matchup

For the Orioles, starting pitcher Austin Voth has a record of 5-3 on an ERA of 4.19. This season Voth has been excellent since joining the Orioles. On the season, he has given up a total of 8 home runs across a total of 78 innings pitched.

In today’s game, New York turns to starter Nestor Cortes. For the year, he has a record of 11-4. Through 27 appearances, Cortes has an ERA of just 2.56 while averaging 5.59 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just 0.195 against him. Cortes is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.95 per 9 innings. Overall, Nestor Cortes has struck out 26.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 5.59 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Cortes, as he is giving up 2.15 walks per outing.

Baltimore vs New York History

Today’s matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees will be their 18th meeting of the season. New York holds the edge in the series at 11-6. Through 17 games, the series over-under record is 9-8, with the average run total sitting at 8.89 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.71 runs. New York won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 11 wins to 8. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 7-12. Last year, the Orioles and Yankees averaged 8.89 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.84 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Baltimore is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Yankees
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Baltimore’s last 18 games on the road
  • NY Yankees is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
  • NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees Prediction

Leading into Saturday’s AL East matchup between Baltimore and New York, the over-under betting line is set at 7.5 runs. Look for runs to be tough to come by, as both Austin Voth and Nestor Cortes come into the game throwing the ball well. In today’s game, I recommend taking the under.

Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5 Runs